Yankees Potential Trade Target: Josh Naylor

12/21/2024 08:00 AM

The familiar postseason foe smacked 31 home runs last year and is only a one-year commitment.

Josh Naylor first came onto many Yankee fans' radars in the 2022 ALDS after hitting a solo home run to cut the lead to one run in Game 4 of the series. The first baseman did an exaggerated rocking the baby celebration toward his team's dugout while rounding the bases:

"Yeah. Cute. Whatever," Cole quipped after their 4-2 victory in Game 4, on their way to win the series in five games.

Well, this offseason, Naylor is in his final year of arbitration and projected to cost $14.2 million, according to Spotrac, so naturally, teams, including the Yankees, have been linked to a postseason antagonist for fans.

There is precedent of the Yankees trading for a player that ribbed at Cole in the past. Josh Donaldson commented on how Cole's spin rates went down after umpire crackdown on "sticky stuff". They still traded for Donaldson, and the two cleared the air. In the instant of bringing in Donaldson, it proved the power of forgiveness is not always a positive.

However, the outlook for Naylor seems more promising. The 27-year-old is in the final year of arbitration, so naturally teams, including the Yankees, have been in talks for his services. Naylor is coming off his first fully healthy major league season, playing a career-high 152 games after playing 121 and 122 games the previous two seasons. He was Cleveland's second-best hitter in 2024, hitting 31 homers, driving in 106 runs, with an OPS+ of 118 and a slash line of .243/.320/.456. This marked the third straight season in which he posted at least a 118 OPS+. His 2023 season was his highest marks for rate stats, with a line of .308/.354/.489 and a 130 OPS+.

Like we saw in the 2022 playoffs, Naylor is known for his fiery reaction after a big hit to pump up his clubhouse. The passionate celebrations aren't just saved for the postseason, he will bash his head with his bat and then spike it after hitting a go-ahead home run in the fifth of inning for a game in April:

In a walk-off scenario, steer clear, kids. Back in 2022, after hitting a walk-off homer in the tenth inning, he gave his manager Terry Francano, who came ready with head gear, a head-butt:

Okay, fine, if you insist, I'll show one more clip of Naylor exploding in the clubhouse after a clutch homer from May 2022:

"I think that's the inner competitor that comes out," his Guardians' teammate Steven Kwan said, according to MLB.com, about his history of celebration. "I think it gets to the point that he just blacks out and it's just pure baseball passion. It's definitely special. But yeah, that's Josh Naylor right there."

He does seem to have a knack for delivering in big spots. In addition to driving in 108 and 97 runs the previous two seasons, his numbers tick with Baseball Reference's high-leverage situation, hitting 35 percent better compared to his career averages in that split.

An interesting thing about Naylor is his peculiar plate discipline approach. In 2023 he had one of the higher chase rates in baseball, yet a really low strikeout rate. He reduced his chase rate by 7.3 percentage points this past season, but he still likes to slap pitches off the plate. Here is his zone chart for ball in play that were outside the plate:

His approach is a combination of a slap-singles hitter and a power hitter.

At first base, the metrics indicate that he's a solid fielder in terms of range, with a 0 Outs Above Average in 2024; he fared better in the Savant metric the prior two seasons, ranking in the 82nd and 88th percentiles in 2022 and 2024. He did have nine errors last season, which was tied for the second most among first baseman.

In terms of speed, going off his average speed, he can dust Giancarlo Stanton to first base, but his sixth percentile in sprint speed isn't helping the team's slower profile.

As for his availability in a trade, Cleveland has at the minimum been listening to offers, but there have been conflicting reports of how eager sellers are. In his latest intel round up, ESPN's Jeff Passan reported that Naylor is among the numerous first baseman available via trade or free agency. Ken Rosenthal on Foul Territory suggested Josh Naylor as a a potential option for New York, however he is unsure if the Guardians will end up trading him. Jon Morosi posted Thursday that the Mariners have had talks with the Guardians about Naylor. They traded for first baseman and highly regarded prospect Kyle Manzardo in 2023, and Jhonkensy Noel (season's greetings to Big Christmas!) also plays first base. Adam Jude of the Seattle Times posted this yesterday on the possibility:

If they were to deal him, this won't be a Cody Bellinger-type just-take-the-bulk-of-his-salary trade. Naylor will cost a return that will hurt for the other side. As Jude said, they already dealt second baseman Andrés Giménez in a payroll-motivated trade, and coming off an ALCS appearance, they could hold on to their second-best hitter last season and see where things are at the deadline.

The positive of one-year of Naylor is that you do not have to worry about how his, umm, physique will age. However, a long term solution for first base may not be out next offseason. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is lined up to be the prized first baseman next offseason. If he's taken off the market, the free agent market for the position is bleak. The Rays will likely find a home for Yandy Díaz that will be eager to pick up his 2026 $12 million club option. Aside from him and Guerrero, we are looking at Lamont Wade Jr. and Naylor leading the class.

There seems to be growing momentum for the Yankees either signing veterans Paul Goldschmidt or Carlos Santana, who in fairness, put up good seasons at the plate last year. I've personally experienced enough former perennial All-Stars in their late 30s hitting a sharp downward slope with the Yankees to last me a lifetime.

Naylor adds another lefty bat to further balance the lineup. The majority of his home runs were pulled to right field. According to Baseball Savant's estimated home runs, he would have hit three more home runs than his actual total with the Yankee Stadium dimensions. With the news of Christian Walker heading to Houston and the Yankees reportedly favoring a low-cost option, this could be a good middle ground between signing Pete Alonso to a long-term deal and signing Goldschmidt or Santana.