Yankees Potential Trade Target: Brendan Donovan
Yesterday at 10:00 AM
The Cardinals failed to reach a multi-year agreement with the versatile Donovan before the arbitration deadline. Should the Yankees try to swoop in?
It's January, it's the heart of winter, and the Yankees still need either a third or second baseman. January also marks the official beginning of the arbitration process. While the Yankees reached an agreement with four of their five arbitration-eligible players (with Mark Leiter Jr. being the odd man out), the Cardinals failed to reach a deal with Brendan Donovan, who has excelled while appearing at just about every defensive position since debuting in 2022, when he was an NL Rookie of the Year finalist.
It appeared that St. Louis might reach a multi-year deal to lock Donovan in for his two remaining arbitration years. Instead, the parties failed to reach a deal before Thursday's deadline. The two sides sit $450,000 apart, and since the Cardinals are a traditional "file-and-trial" team (unlike the Yankees), a potential hearing to settle his contract is quite likely.
Donovan has proven himself to be a highly productive player on both sides of the diamond. The infielder, who will be 28 when the season begins, enters his first year of arbitration eligibility having already won a utility Gold Glove in the aforementioned 2022, and having established himself as St. Louis' most consistent hitter in 2024. He led all qualified Cardinals in batting average, OBP, and OPS by hitting .278/.342/.417 with 3.2 fWAR. A lefty, Donovan exhibits great swing discipline. He rarely comes up with air thanks to a 15.1-percent whiff rate, and he only strikes out 12.4 percent of the time.
Donovan doesn't have much pop, as he only has 30 career home runs and posted a .140 ISO last year. Still, a versatile lefty who can post an OPS somewhere in the .750-.770 range as an infielder is exactly what the Yankees need right now. That's not even taking into account his stellar defense. He accrued six OAA in 2024, with five Outs Above Average at second base — impressive considering the bulk of his time came in left field and he only played 53 games at the keystone.
With a 115 wRC+ in 2024 along with the ability to make plays like the one above, Donovan represents an improvement over the since-departed Gleyber Torres on both sides of the plate rather than a replacement with inherent deficiencies. Donovan has room to improve as well—2024 saw him oddly less productive against four-seam fastballs, posting a -9 run value against the pitch in 2024. This represents an aberration in his young career, and despite the negative peripheral, he still hit .251 against four-seamers with a .340 slugging percentage and .298 wOBA.
Donovan can also lead off, although his splits were better in the middle of the order in 2024. Compare his .237 BA and .314 OBP in the leadoff spot against his .326 BA and .392 OBP batting fifth. That being said, he also hit .276/.357/.409 with a 116 wRC+ at leadoff combined in 2022 and 2023, so this past year could have been a blip on the radar. At this stage in the offseason, a player like Donovan is about the best the Yankees could realistically hope for to meet their needs.
That's the real rub—whether St. Louis is inclined to trade Donovan in the first place. It's true that the parties were unable to reach a multi-year agreement and may be headed for a nasty arbitration hearing. Such hearings can absolutely cause the relationship between the team and club to deteriorate. Corbin Burnes, for instance, voiced his displeasure with how the Brewers handled his arbitration case in the 2022-23 offseason, when the team blamed him in part for their failure to reach the postseason. Milwaukee never had another hearing with Burnes, dealing him to Baltimore in the following offseason. Yankees fans will also remember the acrimonious arbitration hearing between Dellin Betances and the Yanks in 2017.
Still, this is the first year of Donovan's arbitration eligibility, and the Cardinals are under no obligation to move their productive, cost-controlled infielder. St. Louis remains desperate to rid themselves of Nolan Arenado's contract, and the front office was instructed to reduce payroll for 2025. Additionally, despite being a file-and-trial club, the Cards did make an exception last offseason, when they exchanged figures with Tommy Edman before avoiding arbitration on a two-year deal. Perhaps St. Louis does the same with Donovan, or offers a market-rate extension to make him the centerpiece of the next contending Cardinals team. Even if they don't and an arbitrator has to rule in favor of one of the sides after a tough hearing, it's not as though these relationships are doomed to fall apart. (J.T. Realmuto lost his arbitration case to the Phillies in 2020 and signed a five-year extension 11 months later.)
If there is a deal to be made, though, the Yankees should absolutely pony up some of their top prospects to bring Donovan into the fold. Sure, it's trite to say the Yankees should acquire the best player from the Cardinals to fill a need, but it's January 13th—some speculation is necessary and downright healthy at this point.
