Yankees Mailbag: The backup battles and Cole's timeline

14/03/2025 22:30

The roster crunch awaits as spring training begins to head towards the finish line.

Good afternoon everyone, it's time to dive back into the mailbag and answer some of your questions. Remember to send in your questions for our weekly call by e-mail to pinstripealleyblog [at] gmail [dot] com.

OLDY MOLDY asks:Any insight on Cole's time-line getting back into 2026 rotation. What are typical restrictions on innings once he is back? Is it likely they can get him to 150 innings in 2027?

We got details on Cole's surgery yesterday, as reports came out that he had undergone Tommy John surgery as well as putting an internal brace in the arm. The Athletic's Brendan Kuty goes on to explain that this newer model of the procedure doesn't influence the timeline for recovery, but there must be hope on the Yankees' side that it will at least ease Cole's recovery through in a consistent matter if not speed it up somewhat. As of right now though, pencil him in closer to a June-July return with the potential for May if everything goes well.

Regarding 2027's workload, that's entirely dependent on how Cole looks next season in his return, but many pitchers have said that two years is a good baseline for feeling back to full strength (including his own teammate, Carlos Rodón). For now, it's entirely up in the air, but there's reason for optimism given Cole's otherwise stellar track record with health.

Doug B. asks:Who's on the bench? With the Yankees' injuries, who do you see holding down those five spots?

Well, I'm not sure about five spots, as it's far more likely that they go with an even 13-13 split between position players and pitchers. That would leave us with four spots to fill, and we can start with the obvious one: Trent Grisham holding down the backup outfielder spot. I don't love the idea of only carrying one outfielder if he's only going to play center, even given the ability of Cody Bellinger to cover a corner should Jasson Domínguez or Aaron Judge need a day off, but that's neither here nor there — it's going to be the case.

From there, the options begin to open up. Our own John Griffin has some expanded thoughts on the roster race as of the start of this week, but zooming in specifically on the bench there's a few names that I think stand out. If we assume Oswaldo Cabrera wins the third base job, then the backup infielder job could fall to any of three candidates: Oswald Peraza, Jorbit Vivas, and Pablo Reyes. Peraza has no options remaining, so it's make it or bust for him, and while the Yankees haven't prioritized giving him a fair shake in the majors throughout his career they've also shown that they highly prioritize maintaining their minor league depth. Call it what you will, but I think Peraza may win out here.

The backup catcher gig looked like Alex Jackson's job to take entering spring after the trade brought him and Fernando Cruz to the Bronx, but J.C. Escarra has made heads turn throughout camp and has made it a competition. One of them will get it while the other goes to Triple-A, and I'm inclined to believe it'll be Escarra winning out in the end. That leaves the designated hitter job up for grabs and then the platoon bats that'll follow on the bench. Dominic Smith is making it harder and harder for the team to ignore him here, and Ben Rice is also in the running despite a lackluster spring so far. Starting Smith and having Rice as a backup not only to him but as an emergency third catcher could be the play, but the team would have to make a 40-man move to roster Smith. In case that becomes too difficult a move to manage, or if they did indeed opt for 14 hitters out of the gates, then Everson Pereira would be my next man up, even though he is limited to just hitting at the moment.

The idiot that said, "Harper is coming" asks:Would it be a smart move to offer Cole A $10M player option for his age 38 season right now? It would lower his AAV by $5.2M per season for the next four years, possibly saving over $22M in luxury tax penalties. If Cole is worth the $10M or more when the option comes due, he'll opt out and the luxury tax savings came free of charge. If he isn't worth it, he'll opt in and it will cost the Yankees half of what they saved in luxury tax penalties in the previous four years.

It would be nice if it worked that way, but it would be a very easy loophole to exploit, and the CBA took that into account. Per the official MLB glossary on the Competitive Balance Tax, a contract extension of this variety wouldn't effect Cole's current tax hit until his old deal runs its course: "Note: If a player signs a contract extension that doesn't kick in until a later season, his AAV for the purposes of the CBT doesn't change until the new deal begins." All the Yankees would be doing in this case is giving Cole a lifeline for another season if he so chose, which may or may not be a good thing, but it's likely that both sides would rather not do this as things stand.