Why the Yankees should want the Guardians in the ALCS
Yesterday at 10:00 AM
The Yankees would hold a starting pitching and lineup advantage every night against Cleveland.
Interestingly enough, despite being on the road and having a worse record, the Tigers are slight favorites to advance to the ALCS. And that statement ties into one of the primary reasons why the Yankees should prefer a date with the Guardians in the next series, and that is, they don't have Tarik Skubal.
For as dominant as Gerrit Cole, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and other high-prized pitchers left in this postseason can be, right now, in October of 2024, there is no one in the class of Skubal. The TIgers are in the position they're currently in thanks in large part to Skubal's efforts. The AL Cy Young favorite was absolutely dominant in his two postseason starts and needed to be as Detroit's offense is no Murderers Row.
Now on to the Cleveland Guardians. Coincidentally or not, this is a team with significant similarities to the Royals, a club the Yankees just handled rather well.
José Ramirez is not a reason to want to face anyone, but like Bobby Witt Jr. with the Royals, the Guardians' star player doesn't have the deepest lineup to support him. Ramírez ultimately takes on the bulk of the burden to carry the offense, and it is no coincidence that as he went quiet in Games 2 and 3, the Guardians' lineup struggled heavily. Sure, Steven Kwan and Josh Naylor provide good complementary value, but the same could be said to a lesser extent about Salvador Pérez and Vinnie Pasquantino.
Staying on the offensive side of the ball, the Guardians' offense showed dramatic season splits, doing rather poorly while on the road. With the top record in the AL, the Yankees hold home advantage, and the numbers back up pretty bleak expectations for Cleveland away from Progressive Field. One the year, Cleveland had a 109 wRC+ at home and 92 on the road.
On the pitching side of things, for as dominant as the backend of Cleveland's bullpen might be, their starting rotation is not even as imposing as the Royals one. The Yankees should send out the superior starter in literally every single game of a potential ALCS against them.
Look no further than Game 5 of the ALDS. While Detroit will rely on Skubal, Stphen Vogt is rolling with Matthew Boyd, who delivered pretty good numbers but in a very small sample, making only eight starts during the regular season.
Sure, if you're down late against Cade Smith, Emmanuel Clase, and those boys, the odds aren't in your favor. That being said, the Yanks hold clear advantages on both the offense and starting pitching to likely avoid those scenarios for the most part.
Editor's note: As a bonus, here are the partial SB Nation Reacts results from this past week, where one of the questions asked Yankees fans about a possible opponent preference. This has also been included in Matt's pro-Tigers post. The fans called the Tigers a less difficult opponent.
According to this poll, the Guardians would be the tougher opponent, and in general, the numbers probably back that up, but it's closer than what one might expect. Both teams outperformed their Pythagorean win-loss record by a tad, and there are arguments on either side.
Ultimately, though, no matter who goes through, the weight of expectation and favoritism will be on the Yankees' side of things to represent the American League in the World Series.
