Where the Yankees' current rotation ranks in the AL East

03/24/2025 05:15 PM

The Yankees' rotation is already decimated by injuries. How does it stack up against the rest of the division?

The month of March was devastating for the Yankees' starting rotation. Early injuries to Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt are enough to immediately put the pitching depth to the test, and that's without the added nightmare of Gerrit Cole undergoing Tommy John surgery. The Bombers aren't the only AL East team to suffer early losses to their rotation however, as the Rays, Red Sox, and Orioles have all lost key pitchers before Opening Day as well. No other injuries within the division have matched the devastation of Gerrit Cole's elbow surgery, but nearly everyone has been forced to adjust their expectations before the regular season even begins. Here's the current state of all five AL East rotations, and how they stack up against each other:

Tampa Bay Rays

Ryan Pepiot, Taj Bradley, Shane Baz, Zack Littell, Drew Rasmussen

Stop me if you've heard this one before: the Rays have the best rotation on paper going into the regular season. This is a rock-solid group of right-handed arms, and it was much better a few days ago when it still featured its sole southpaw, Shane McClanahan. It appears McClanahan and the Rays got pretty lucky after a nasty-looking injury turned out to be an inflamed nerve in his left tricep. He's not expected to miss a significant amount of time.

This kind of thing has been the story of Tampa's rotation for a few years now though, as the group of talented pitchers has been devastated by injury after injury. McClanahan missed all of 2024 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Baz and Rasmussen have undergone TJS as well. Baz had the surgery in late 2022, missed all of 2023 and ramped back up in the second half of last year. Rasmussen had it way back in 2017, but also had an internal brace procedure on his elbow in 2023. Taj Bradley started last season on the IL and had a rollercoaster year, showing flashes of brilliance but leaving far too many fastballs over the middle of the plate and getting hit hard consistently. They traded Jeffrey Springs (also a Tommy John recipient) to the Athletics this offseason for a package centered around Joe Boyle, who will start the season in Triple-A. The Rays have a great group of starters, but as has been the case for a few years now, their real test will be staying on the field.

Boston Red Sox

Garrett Crochet, Tanner Houck, Walker Buehler, Richard Fitts, Sean Newcomb

Boston doesn't have the most inspiring rotation in the world, but they rank second here because Garrett Crochet is unbelievably good. He had a 35-percent strikeout rate and 209 K's in 146 innings last year, and that was with the White Sox going out of their way to suppress his workload. He could throw 180 innings this year in Boston, and if that happens he's a favorite to win the American League Cy Young award. He has a case for being the best pitcher in baseball right now.

Behind Crochet, no one in this rotation is particularly daunting. Tanner Houck had a nice season last year, but his results were considerably better than the metrics suggested and his strikeout rate has declined every year. Houck is talented, but he's not necessarily the guy you want starting Game 2 of a potential playoff series. The same goes for Walker Buehler, who had a few big moments in last year's World Series, but before that was in the midst of a disastrous season in LA coming back from Tommy John surgery. He still has a lot to prove before he can be held in the regard as he was three year ago.

Then Boston has two question marks in Richard Fitts and Sean Newcomb, the latter of whom hasn't thrown more than 35 innings in a season since 2019. The Sox have suffered their share of injuries so far in 2025, with Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, and Lucas Giolito all starting the season on the IL. Boston has an impressive amount of pitching depth, but Crochet might be the only one teams really need to watch out for.

Toronto Blue Jays

JoséBerrios, Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Bowden Francis, Max Scherzer

With the acquisition of 40-year-old Max Scherzer, the Blue Jays have fully leaned into staffing their rotation with veteran right-handers who no longer possess overpowering stuff (or in some cases, never did). Scherzer was one of the game's very best pitchers for a decade, and even in his twilight years he should be able to produce solid numbers even if he's no longer the menacing ace of his youth. He joins a rotation with 30-year-old José Berrios, 34-year-old Kevin Gausman, and 36-year-old Chris Bassitt, none of whom have a fastball velocity over 95 MPH and all of whom have seen their strikeout numbers decrease over the past few years.

This group won't dominate many lineups in 2025, but if healthy they should be able to eat a lot of innings and keep the Blue Jays competitive. The dark horse to be the best pitcher on this staff is Bowden Francis, who joined the rotation last summer and impressed immediately. From August 12th on, Francis recorded five starts that went at least seven innings and never allowed more than three runs in any given start. This might be the last year with so many older pitchers in the rotation, depending on the development of prospect arms Trey Yesavage, Ricky Tiedemann, and Khal Stephen, but the 2025 Blue Jays will live or die by these veteran starters.

New York Yankees

Max Fried, Carlos Rodón, Marcus Stroman, Will Warren, Carlos Carrasco

Here we are. The Yankees would have been at the top of this list a month ago, and now they find themselves toward the bottom. The injuries to Cole, Gil, and Schmidt are no joke. Gil will be out until around June, and Schmidt will hopefully only have to miss limited time, but shoulder injuries for pitchers are frightening to say the least.

In the meantime, 60 percent of this rotation will have to be held down by a trio of question marks: Marcus Stroman, who was the odd man out and actively being shopped in the trade market just a month ago, Will Warren, who shined all throughout spring training but struggled mightily in the big leagues last season, and Carlos Carrasco, who came to camp as a non-roster invitee and might have had to settle for a Triple-A assignment. As of the morning of March 24th, the Yankees just signed Ryan Yarbrough to a big-league contract, and while he'll certainly begin in the bullpen he could be a decent rotation option if Warren or Carrasco don't work out.

I wrote last week about the added pressure on Max Fried and Carlos Rodón, who the Yankees suddenly need more than ever. While this ranking is not what Yankees fans want to see, it's not quite time to hit the panic button yet. This team is deep enough and talented enough to return to the playoffs despite the injuries, and the gap between them and the other teams on this list is small enough that healthy returns from Gil and Schmidt and/or the acquisition of a pitcher on the trade market would send them right back up to the top. It may just be a shaky first couple months.

Baltimore Orioles

Zach Eflin, Charlie Morton, Dean Kremer, Tomoyuki Sugano, Cade Povich

The closest any other AL East fanbase has come to the misery of losing Gerrit Cole this spring was in early March, when the Orioles announced Grayson Rodriguez would start the season on the IL with elbow inflammation. This doesn't necessarily mean Rodriguez will miss most of the 2025 season, but given the nature of the injury, it does leave the possibility on the table that he'll be Tommy John's next victim. Rodriguez has all the skills he needs to be an ace and many analysts predicted 2025 to be the year he puts it all together, so it goes without saying that this outcome would be devastating for the Orioles playoff chances.

Baltimore won 91 games last year before a disastrous playoff performance, so the fact that they let Corbin Burnes walk in free agency without pursuing another top-end starter is a bit of a head-scratcher. This team should be pushing all their chips in to open their championship window as wide as possible, but with Rodriguez and Kyle Bradish on the shelf they're left with a number of question marks to start the season. Zach Eflin has turned into a rock-solid arm over the past two seasons, but behind him it's not too inspiring. Charlie Morton is 41 years old and not the pitcher he once was. Tomoyuki Sugano was signed out of Japan at 35, and it remains to be seen how his stuff will play in Major League Baseball.

Dean Kremer is just not that good of a pitcher, and he belongs closer to the back of a rotation than as its No. 3 starter. There is reason for optimism with Cade Povich, who has multiple plus secondaries and a pretty deep arsenal, but even the best-case scenario for this group is not fit for a championship contender. Baltimore needs Grayson Rodriguez to make a healthy return and be the best version of himself if they want to compete for a pennant in 2025.