Top NYY Could-Have-Beens: Austin Jackson
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Austin Jackson was on the cusp of being MLB-ready when the Yankees traded him as part of a successful three-team deal that brought them Curtis Granderson.
There's a certain category of lost prospect that fits in a grey area of sorts. The potential that the kid showed as a minor leaguer made you extremely hopeful for his career, and while he was traded for what turned out to be a successful return, you still occasionally think about what might have been had they remained with the organization. It's not a regret that the team made the move per se, as the acquisition became a lineup cog and indeed the prospect never quite became a star elsewhere. And yet still, you might think about Austin Jackson.
Years inYankees Organization: 2005-09
How They Left: Traded to theTigers in December 2009
Career MLB Statistics: 1,115 G, .273 BA, 65 HR, 381 RBI, .729 OPS, 100 OPS+, 22.1 rWAR, 19.3 fWAR (never played with the Yankees)
Jackson first popped up in a national outlet when he was named by Baseball America as the best 12-year-old player in America—he was once again named the best 15-year-old in the country three years later. It may have seem premature for the publication to crown a top player so young, but MLB teams were also paying attention to the kid from Denton, TX, when he was in middle school. He was on the Yankees' radar at age-12 when one of their scouts, Mark Batchko, saw Jackson hit three home runs playing in a league for players two years older than his age. The Yankees ended up drafting him out of Billy C. Ryan High School in the eighth round and offered him a then-record $800,000 for that round to convince him to sign.
In high school, the hype with Jackson's baseball potential from a young age interestingly made him more focused on basketball. "That's about the time people were like, 'Basketball is just something you do as a hobby,'" he told the New York Times in 2009. "And I was like, 'No, I can actually play a little bit.' I started practicing basketball more and going to more tournaments. People started thinking I didn't really care for baseball, but that wasn't it. I just wanted to prove people wrong."
Jackson committed to Georgia Tech in both basketball and baseball, likely the reason he fell to the eighth round in 2005. Baseball Prospectus had a less-than-glowing write-up on Jackson in 2007:
"Austin Jackson was all about basketball until the Yankees used an above-slot bonus to banish thoughts of hoops and baggy shorts from his mind. As such, he's still very raw, even for his age, but his willingness to take a walk is a good sign. Watch his speed, because, if he ends up in left rather than center, he might not hit enough."
Baseball America had a similar outlook in his early years in the minors. They said Jackson "confused scouts as both an amateur and now as a pro." That his speed was misleading, and his range in center field was limited, and he needed to dramatically improve his breaking-ball recognition.
Jackson's 24.9-percent strikeout rate in his first exposure to full-season ball showed that inexperience, but he did prove the ability to hit for a high average and get steals, albeit not super efficiently. Things began to progress for the center fielder in 2007 when coaches overhauled his swing. He slashed .304/.370/.476, with 33 steals for Low-A Charleston. The breakthrough year placed him as the 41st ranked prospect in Baseball America.
Although scouting publications were somewhat skeptical of Jackson, Yankees showed how they valued AJax throughout his rise throughout the minors. Even back in 2006, the Yankees protected Jackson in trade discussions for a reunion with Alfonso Soriano, who was still playing at All-Star level at the time. When the Yankees were in negotiations that following offseason to trade for Twin's ace Johan Santana, who was the best pitcher in baseball over his past four seasons, Jackson was considered untouchable (granted they also ultimately made fellow top farm prospects Dellin Betances, Alan Horne, Ian Kennedy, and José Tabata unavailable). The deal centered around Phil Hughes and Melky Cabrera, and the Twins might have been better with that return compared to what they got back from the Mets.
In 2008, Jackson continued to roll in Double-A, with a .285/.354/.419 line in 584 PA. He rose to the top prospect in the Yankees' farm system and 36th overall in Baseball America prior to the 2009 season.
Although there were flaws in his game, Jackson's first season in Triple-A proved that had enough talent to deserve a call-up at some point, hitting .300/.354/.405. Granted, he still lacked any home-run power, and striking out at 22.1 percent of the time. It was seen as a toss-up if he would be a better player than Brett Gardner or Melky Cabrera as a potential starting outfield spot came available, with the impeding free agency of Johnny Damon after 2009.
Even though his numbers were still strong in Triple-A, Baseball Prospectus tagged with a fairly harsh projection after the season:
"That he still managed to hit .300 for the season is a superficially reassuring accomplishment, but when you start knocking bits off of his performance to make a major-league translation, you're not left with a whole lot to hang a projection of stardom upon. You have to have faith that Jackson's youth and athleticism will allow for development of skills we don't yet see, like authoritative hitting or top-flight defense."
On the brink of being ready for his MLB-debut, the Yankees decided to go all-in on Gardner in center, and Jackson was dealt in a three-team blockbuster trade in December 2009. Here's the full rundown:
Yankees received: Curtis Granderson (from DET)
Tigers received: Austin Jackson (from NYY), Phil Coke (from NYY), Max Scherzer (from ARI), Daniel Schlereth (from ARI)
Diamondbacks received: Ian Kennedy (from NYY), Edwin Jackson (from DET).
Writer Evan Brunell of FanGraphs and The Hardball Times had a solid forecast for how Jackson's career played out, even though Jackson didn't hit the ceiling of his comp:
"Austin Jackson was tabbed New York's best prospect of 2009 and if he hadn't been traded, stood a good bet of repeating that honor in 2010. Jackson won't overwhelm you with his game, but he won't cause you to gnash your teeth, either…. Listening to people describe Austin Jackson made me keep hearkening back to J.D. Drew: each of his facets of the game ranges from average to good. Jackson probably won't be a star, but he's absolutely a bona fide starter on a championship team."
Although there were multiple moving parts, for Yankee fans, the trade zeroed in on the two center fielders in the deal, Jackson and Granderson.
The instant results looked terrible for the Yankees. A month into the season, Jackson was hitting .356 and leading the American League with 37 hits. He closed out April in style, notching a perfect 5-for-5 night, and he was named AL Rookie of the Month.
Meanwhile, Granderson had a slow April with a .225 run to start off his Yankee tenure, including going 3-for-37 before missing time with a groin strain.
You can find 2010 blog posts and newspaper clippings fretting if the Yankees were not patient enough with their farm talent. Looking back at the trade, Cashman said he warned his boss, Hal Steinbrenner, that in the worst-case scenario, Granderson would have to sit against lefties due to his rough splits, and that he expected Jackson to hit for a higher average. However, Granderson offered power that Jackson seemingly was not able to provide.
Over the course of the next four years, the trade evened out, notably in 2011 all three clubs won their division, with Jackson (and Scherzer to an extent; it took a couple years for him to become a Cy Young contender), Kennedy, and Granderson, all shining for their respective teams.
Jackson had the stronger first season between the center fielders. Although Jackson finished with just a slightly above average 102 OPS+ his rookie year, he certainly benefited from the spacious Comerica Park, both by flashing his improved range as a fielder and his hitting. He had a whopping .397 BABIP in 2010, which was a concern about his sustainability as a hitter, as the speed to maintain such a high rate goes down with age. He also struck out 170 times (tied for fifth in the MLB that year) and hit just four home runs for the season. Jackson finished second in the AL Rookie of the Year ballot. If it was a more WAR-influenced voting bloc than it was in 2010, Jackson (5.1 rWAR) may have won the award over closer Neftalí Feliz (2.5 rWAR), who picked up 40 saves for the Rangers.
Jackson was streaky at the plate for the Tigers and never an All-Star, but recorded 5-plus WAR seasons twice and led the Junior Circuit in triples in consecutive seasons from 2011-12 with 21 combined. His career year was in 2012, slashing .300/.377/.479 in 137 games, even hitting a career-high 16 home runs as the Tigers won the AL pennant (he also had an 1.127 OPS in the four-game ALCS sweep over his old Yankees). Jackson continually proved to be a good defender and although he never won a Gold Glove, he won the 2011 Fielding Bible Award—which favors statistical analysis over reputation—for center fielders. In 2012 he made a spectacular catch to preserve Armando Galarraga's infamous near-perfect game:
Looking back at the three-team deal, by 2011, each side was in the playoffs and happy with at least some aspect of their return, a rarity. The Diamondbacks' delight faded over time as Scherzer became a future Hall of Famer in Detroit and Washington, but we're looking at it with an early-2010s lens.
As for the center field matchup, both sides were probably in all happy with their respective players. Granderson recovered from his early slump and had two 40-plus home run seasons for New York, finished fourth in 2011 AL MVP voting, and PSA included him among the Top 100 Yankees. So who was better for their respective teams? Even just comparing two WAR metrics for the players during Granderson's tenure, Baseball Reference prefers Jackson while FanGraphs favors Granderson. Yes, 2014 is excluded from this comp, but note that while Granderson was gone in free agency, Jackson's play had also begun to dip.
It honestly might just be a push depending on how much you liked Granderson's style of play. He certainly had the pop to win fans over, and it's not as though those early-2010s teams were hurting for offense until 2013, when his injuries were caused by poorly-timed plunkings.
Back to the topic at hand, the Tigers chose to trade Jackson themselves in another three-team trade, landing Rays ace David Price and shipping AJax off to Seattle, with up-and-coming prospect Willy Adames going to Tampa Bay. The center fielder found out during the game, and received a special send-off by the home crowd as he exited the game:
After the trade to Seattle, Jackson took a step back in his 2014 and '15 seasons at the plate. Concerns about his plate discipline continued, in 2015, he struck out 23.9 percent while only walking 5.5 percent. Meanwhile, his batting average took a dip to .267 making him a below-average hitter. He was dealt to the Cubs midseason in 2015, where he failed to make a mark with a 83 OPS+.
Jackson began to bounce around with the White Sox the following year. He failed to produce at the plate, with the Sox and had season-ended surgery for a torn meniscus. His best stint post-Detroit came with Cleveland. He made the roster after signing a minor-league contract, and despite a pair of injury stints, he hit .318 with a 128 OPS+ over 85 games. Jackson also had one of the best plays of the 2017 season:
Jackson was able to leverage the strong stint for a two-year, $6 million contract with the Giants. Unfortunately, he lost his starting job and was released before the end of his first year. Jackson caught on with the Mets, but in all he did not offer much with them either. With a .624 OPS and over a 35-percent strikeout rate with the two clubs, 2018 ended up being his final season.
Looking back at his career, Jackson's overall minor-league projections came pretty close to how his career played out. He was a solid and productive everyday center fielder for the Tigers, but his power never came. Although he maintained really-high BABIP over his career, his time in the spacious Comerica Park in Detroit slightly enhanced his BABIP enough where he could be league average at the plate. He was a WAR-friendly player with his defense range and ability to gain extra bases on the base paths.
Jackson's problem throughout his career was his combination of his low walk rate and high strikeouts. He clearly improved in center field, as Baseball Prospectus was concerned about him sticking there in the majors. Given his strong four seasons in Detroit, he was one of the more successful former prospects in this "Could-Have-Beens" in the category of former touted prospects among this era to be traded away, but thankfully, Granderson was a pretty darn option in center himself.
Sources:
- Kepner, Tyler. " Austin Jackson: A Star Under Construction." New York Times, June 2, 2009. https://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/02/sports/baseball/02jackson.html.
- Parker, Rob. "Austin Jackson Is Living Up to the Hype." ESPN New York, April 28, 2010. https://www.espn.com/new-york/mlb/columns/story?id=5154760.
- Lowitt, Bruce. "Austin Jackson Makes His Family Proud." MLB.com, July 20, 2012. https://www.mlb.com/news/austin-jackson-makes-his-family-proud/c-34801158.
- Shah, Kunj. "How the Yankees' Trade for Curtis Granderson Altered Their Trajectory." Pinstripe Alley, March 17, 2016. https://www.pinstripealley.com/yankees-analysis-sabermetrics/2016/3/17/11250662/yankees-trade-curtis-granderson-austin-jackson-ian-kennedy-tigers-diamondbacks.
- Baseball Prospectus. "Austin Jackson Player Page." Accessed January 24, 2025. https://www.baseballprospectus.com/player/47939/austin-jackson/.
- Brunell, Evan. "Blockbuster Three-Way Trade Sends Granderson to Yankees." The Hardball Times, December 9, 2009. https://tht.fangraphs.com/tht-live/blockbuster-three-way-trade-sends-granderson-to-yankees/.
