MLB Mid-September Check-in: NL West
09/17/2024 04:00 PM
The Dodgers cling to a narrow lead ahead of two big weeks.
Every day, Pinstripe Alley offers updates on what the Yankees' top American League opponents are up to through the Rivalry Roundup. The AL East is well-trodden ground there, but with the pennant race heating up in mid-September, we're going to take a peek around MLB as a whole and check in with each of the other five divisions. Who's surprising? Who's underwhelming? Who's simply mediocre at the moment? Read on and find out.
(Note: Records are up to date, but other statistics are through games played on Sunday, September 15th.)
First Place: Los Angeles Dodgers (89-61)
Top Position Player: Shohei Ohtani (6.9 fWAR)
Top Pitcher: Tyler Glasnow (3.8 fWAR)
We turn once more to the team with the second-most wins in baseball, who somehow feel more like frauds despite that. Tyler Glasnow announced on Saturday that he'd likely be out the rest of the season, adding yet another name to the massive pile of injured Dodger pitchers. I've said it multiple times this season but it rings true all the same; the Dodgers aren't good at pitching development: they're good at pushing pitchers beyond their body's limits.
Ohtani is once again the talk of baseball, in pursuit of a 50/50 season and, for me, not that excitable a player. The media narrative for his third MVP grows, despite Francisco Lindor starting to build distance between their performances and having in my opinion a stronger case. I think I'm just oversaturated by Ohtani, I'm sure many non-Yankee fans feel the same about Aaron Judge — although Judge, at least in 2024, is a much better player.
The Dodgers' magic number to clinch a playoff spot sits at five, but the NL West itself remains competitive. LA turns toward the final couple weeks with a very makeshift rotation and will likely have to rely on Walker Buehler, he of the 5.54 ERA and negative fWAR, as their number two in a playoff rotation. Jack Flaherty and Yoshinobu Yamamoto round out the top three, although one more injury to the staff and the wolves grow closer.
Second Place: San Diego Padres (86-65)
Top Position Player: Jackson Merrill (4.7 fWAR)
Top Pitcher: Dylan Cease (4.3 fWAR)
Herein are the wolves.
The Padres are 20 games over for the first time in almost 20 years, buoyed by one of the favorites for the NL Rookie of the Year (Jackson Merrill) and a dynamite trade atop the rotation. Coming off a sweep of the Giants, the Padres are still on the outside looking in for the division title, but a huge final week of the season allows them some control over their destiny.
Three games against the Dodgers, from the 24-26th, mirror almost exactly the situation Baltimore will be in against the Yankees next week. While they have to get through the Astros first, the Dads then get three games against the White Sox to keep the division close and set up a big series against the team they're trying to run down. They are currently 3.5 back of LA for the NL West.
Michael King has nicely turned it around after a bad April. The former Yankee has a 3.06 ERA, best in the rotation, and been worth three and a half wins. The team's lineup is better than the rotation, and you could do a lot worse than Cease and King starting your first two playoff games.
Third Place: Arizona Diamondbacks (83-67)
Top Position Player: Ketel Marte (5.3 fWAR)
Top Pitcher: Zac Gallen (2.8 fWAR)
The Diamondbacks likely don't have a play for the division title, but they should solidly clinch a Wild Card spot and send another deep squad into October. Six guys in the lineup all boast at least three-win seasons, and Marte's in the midst of the second-best season of his career; he will almost certainly get down-ballot MVP votes.
The pitching staff could give the D-backs real problems come October. Depth means a little bit less in the postseason because you can ask your stars to go a little longer, or be a little more creative in their deployment. The problem is even the stars haven't been great so far in 2024. Gallen has been as good a pitcher as you'll find in the NL, but some IL time and struggles with control have left him just a step below where we'd usually expect.
Jordan Montgomery has set himself on fire in his first year in the desert, and while the names at the top of the bullpen are reliable, the unit as a whole has been in the bottom third of baseball. For the Diamondbacks to recreate the magic of last fall, they'll need to hit their way there.
Fourth Place: San Francisco Giants (72-78)
Top Position Player: Matt Chapman (5.0 fWAR)
Top Pitcher: Logan Webb (4.0 fWAR)
The three teams grappling atop the division all have MVP candidates, star pitchers, paths to deep October runs, and then there's the Giants. They've agreed to a six-year, $151 million extension with Matt Chapman, so good news there.
But even in that good news, we now have reporting that franchise icon Buster Posey was needed to drag the extension over the finish line after both Chapman and the Giants' admin grew tired of the process. This doesn't exactly sound like a strong endorsement of president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi. Zaidi's seen more than a few setbacks since taking over the Giants in 2019, and aside from that inexplicable 107 win season in 2021, the club has struggled to remain competitive. After whiffing on high-priced free agents multiple times, ownership may have to take on a whole new approach to their franchise.
Last Place: Colorado Rockies (58-93)
Top Position Player: Brenton Doyle (3.8 fWAR)
Top Pitcher: Ryan Feltner (2.1 fWAR)
I love my big dumb stupid Colorado Rockies, but even for me it's time for a come to Jesus moment.
Outside of the Yankees, I watch the Rockies more than any other team. This franchise is cripplingly broken. It is broken in the way the Athletics and White Sox are, but somehow glossed over. Sell the team, Dick.
