MLB End-of-April Check-in: AL Central
01/05/2024 22:00
Surprising storylines have emerged out of the AL Central to start the year.
Every day, Pinstripe Alley offers updates on what the Yankees' top American League opponents are up to through the Rivalry Roundup. The AL East is well-trodden ground there, but with the month of April coming to a close, we're going to take a peek around MLB as a whole and check in with each of the other five divisions. Who's surprising? Who's underwhelming? Who's simply mediocre at the moment? Read on and find out.
First Place: Cleveland Guardians (19-10)
Top Position Player: Steven Kwan (1.5 fWAR)
Top Pitcher: Shane Bieber (0.8 fWAR)
It was a bit of eyebrow-raiser when the Guardians tabbed Stephen Vogt to replace likely Hall of Fame skipper Terry Francona. Vogt had not managed a single game in his career and only retired in 2022, but the longtime catcher is a beloved figure in the clubhouse, and his approach towards analytics certainly caught Cleveland's eye. Despite the lack of experience, things have been rolling for the Guards so far.
The top half of Cleveland's lineup has looked great. Steven Kwan continues to look like a franchise building block, Josh Naylor and José Ramírez continue to supply the power, and Andrés Giménez has looked great as a table-setter. The bottom of the order has been the opposite. Outside of Naylor and Ramírez, no Guardian has more than three home runs. Power is an issue for this lineup, and Cleveland will need to improve in that department to stay a serious contender.
On the mound, things looked dire after longtime ace Shane Bieber went down with Tommy John surgery in early April. Tanner Bibee has looked good, but the rest of the rotation has been iffy at best. The real strength is the bullpen. Emmanuel Clase continues to be one of the top closers in baseball, while arms like Hunter Gaddis, Nick Sandlin, Cade Smith and Tim Herrin have all taken large strides. If they can continue to perform at this level, Cleveland can bear the woes of the rotation.
Second Place: Kansas City Royals (18-13)
Top Position Player: Bobby Witt Jr. (1.8 fWAR)
Top Pitcher: Cole Ragans (1.3 fWAR)
After a dreadful 56-106 campaign in 2023, the Royals chose to spend in the offseason, handing out savvy deals to a few veterans and locking up their franchise cornerstone Bobby Witt Jr. to a massive 11-year, $288 million extension in an effort to accelerate their rebuild. Things have worked like gangbusters so far as KC is off to a great start in 2024.
The offense has been carried by Witt and longtime Royal Salvador Perez. Witt ranks in the top-10 of nearly every offensive category to boot so far, and has a Statcast page to back it up. Perez is defying all expectations after it looked like Father Time began to catch up to the 33-year-old catcher. The rest of KC's offense needs serious improvement, as no Royals hitter with 75 or more at-bats is batting above .234, a number simply unsustainable even in today's game.
The majority of KC's success is owed to its pitching staff. While Seth Lugo's 1.66 ERA in his first six starts might be a little misleading, he has been a solid pitcher. Brady Singer is finally looking like the pitcher he was projected to be when the Royals spent a first round pick on him back in 2018. Cole Ragans has continued to deal since being acquired from the Rangers at last year's trade deadline, and Michael Wacha has looked like a solid number four starter.
In the bullpen, James McArthur and John Schreiber has seemingly come out of nowhere to provide a killer one-two punch to close out games. Ángel Zerpa, Nick Anderson, Jordan Lyles and Rule 5 selection Matt Sauer have all contributed positively as well. While it's more likely than not that KC will fade as the year progresses, it is still an encouraging sign for what the future may hold.
Third Place: Detroit Tigers (17-13)
Top Position Player: Riley Greene (1.4 fWAR)
Top Pitcher: Tarik Skubal (1.2 fWAR)
For the first time in a while, there's some real hope brewing in Detroit. A combination of budding stars have begun to click in the early goings of 2024. While they're not totally out of the woods yet, there is some real optimism that the Tigers are close to finally ending their rebuild.
Offensively, Greene leads the way. His batting average is on the lower side, but is walking at a high clip and providing sound center field defense. Offseason trade acquisition Mark Canha is off to a great start at the plate and is providing solid veteran leadership. Matt Vierling and Kerry Carpenter have also looked good, while youngster Wenceel Pérez is off to a nice start to his big league career.
There are some notable areas to improve. Jake Rogers has essentially been a liability behind the dish. Spencer Torkelson continues to look lost at the plate. Highly touted prospect Colt Keith has looked overmatched to start the season. And the less we discuss Javier Báez, the better. It's been a tale of two sides for Detroit; the good is really good, but the bad is really bad.
The real key to Detroit's success has been the pitching staff. Tarik Skubal continues to look like one of the best starters in the American League following his 2023 midseason return from flexor tendon surgery. Casey Mize, Reese Olson and Matt Manning have all pitched well early in the season as well. All four have the potential to form a formidable Tigers rotation for years to come. Veteran additions Jack Flaherty and Kenta Maeda have not blown the roof off the joint but have eaten valuable innings early on.
For as strong as the rotation has been, the bullpen has been just as strong. Jason Foley has looked great as Detroit's closer so far, while younger arms Joey Wentz, Alex Lange, and Alex Faedo have combined with veterans Shelby Miller and Andrew Chafin to form a surprisingly deep bullpen. The Tigers are one long relief arm away from potentially boasting the best bullpen in baseball, but the pitching staff will have to continue to do most of the heavy lifting for Detroit to keep winning.
Fourth Place: Minnesota Twins (16-13)
Top Position Player: Ryan Jeffers (1.3 fWAR)
Top Pitcher: Joe Ryan (1.0 fWAR)
Don't look now, but the Twins have been rolling as of late. The team sat at just 7-13 in mid-April before rattling off a nine-game win streak to climb above .500. Yes, that effort has been enabled by a whole bunch of games against the miserable White Sox (more on them in a bit), but that's just April baseball. The Twins are more than capable of gaining ground quick in a very winnable AL Central.
In the lineup, Minnesota caught a couple of bad breaks early. Uber-talented Royce Lewis went down with a right quad strain on Opening Day, and key contributor Carlos Correa was off to a good start before he too went down with a right intercostal strain that sidelined him for a couple weeks. Ryan Jeffers has been the main force in the lineup, with Alex Kirilloff, Christian Vázquez, and Byron Buxton all performing somewhat decently to keep the Twins afloat.
Minnesota's rotation has been somewhat suspect. Joe Ryan is off to a good start, but each of Pablo López, Chris Paddack, Bailey Ober, and Louie Varland all have ERAs over 4.20. Varland's 9.18 ERA got him bumped out of the rotation in favor of Simeon Woods-Richardson, who pitched much better in two late April starts.
In the bullpen, longtime contributor Griffin Jax has performed well as the closer, but Brock Stewart has yet to give up a run through his first 12.1 innings. Kody Funderburk, Steven Okert, and Cole Sands have filled in nicely as middle inning relievers as the team welcomed back flamethrowing closer Jhoan Durán to close out the month, who missed the start of the season with a strained oblique. Despite their current fourth place standing, Minnesota has the best playoff odds of any AL Central team, indicating that they look worse than they actually are.
Last Place: Chicago White Sox (6-24)
Top Position Player: Gavin Sheets/Paul DeJong/Danny Mendick (0.4 fWAR)
Top Pitcher: Erick Fedde/Garrett Crochet (0.6 fWAR)
At last, we arrive to the White Sox. There's no way to sugarcoat this — the White Sox are awful. They are what most people expected the Athletics to be this season. There are very few bright spots on this team, but they do exist if you squint a bit. First-year GM Chris Getz has his hands full with overseeing this rebuild.
Offensively, Chicago's bright spots are few and far in between. Yoán Moncada was hitting .282 over his first 11 games before being sidelined with a left adductor strain, and yet he's still produced the most rWAR of any Chicago hitter (0.4). Each of Eloy Jiménez, Gavin Sheets, Korey Lee, and the newly-signed Tommy Pham are playing decently, with Sheets and Lee being pleasant surprises. Take away those players, and you see just how bad things are. No other qualified Chicago hitter is batting over .215. Even Luis Robert was batting just .214 before he went down with a left hip flexor strain. It hasn't been pretty for the South Siders.
Pitching-wise, it's not much better. In the rotation, offseason acquisition Erick Fedde has been solid in his return from Korea. Outside of a one-game spot start from Tanner Banks, six pitchers have started a game for the White Sox, and five of them have an ERA of 5.11 or higher. Take away Chris Flexen, and that number climbs to 6.37. Chicago has tried conventional starters (Michael Soroka), converted starters (Garrett Crochet), and prospects (Jonathan Cannon and Nick Nastrini) but nothing has worked. It's setting up to be a long season for this staff.
In the bullpen, former starter Michael Kopech is the de facto closer, where he has pitched alright. Trade acquisitions Steven Wilson and Jordan Leasure have pitched well, but the rest of the bullpen has ranged from bad to stomach churning. This is a pure sellers team with few pieces worth selling at this stage. It must feel like rock bottom for White Sox fans.
As we can see, the AL Central has been full of surprises to start the season. From the Royals being a pleasant surprise to the White Sox turning into a complete dumpster fire, we have a wide variety of storylines. Things will average out over a full season, but it's been a more noteworthy start to the season for these five teams than originally expected.
