Is starting Schmidt over Gil the right move?

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Why the rookie might have been better suited to take the mound for the Yankees in Game 3.

On Monday, the Yankees announced that Clarke Schmidt will get the start in Game 3 of the American League Division Series instead of Luis Gil. Manager Aaron Boone explained that he just felt like Schmidt was the right guy for the job. He has some good reasons* on his side—Clarke has playoff experience, while Gil does not, for instance. Gil has trouble with walks, leading the majors with 77. As the Royals found out when they walked eight batters on Saturday, walks lead to runs.

*Stay tuned for tomorrow, when Nick Power will make the more complete case for Schmidt.

There are reasons why Gil should be taking the bump in Game 3 instead, however. Schmidt is coming off of a long IL stint, making just five starts (24.2 IP) since his return. He's looked decent enough in those starts outside of a four-run, four-inning effort against the Pirates in the last series of the season. However, he hasn't reached the sixth inning in any of those starts. In that context — even in this modern playoff setting of abbreviated starts — it seems a bit ambitious to rely on a starter after such a lengthy layoff, regardless of the extra week of rest that Gil also enjoys after his 151.2 inning campaign.

Put simply, we have a starter who has maintained his health for far more of the season, and yet who won't be making a start this ALDS because of this move. It's nice for Boone to say that Gil would get the nod in a possible ALCS where a fourth starter is needed, but is it fair for Gil to be the one to draw the short end of the stick?

Another knock against starting Schmidt is relegating Gil to the bullpen. To his credit, I think Schmidt is better suited to coming out of the bullpen either piggybacking a starter or coming on in relief. In his own words, he'd be prepared to take on the role if need be. It's a tough ask for a rookie to come out of the bullpen in the playoffs, especially the potential AL Rookie of the Year who led MLB in walks issued. The fact that he'd be almost certainly restricted to a "clean inning" due to his inexperience is just another flag.

Although a common conversation point among fans is that "Gil's stuff is better out of the 'pen" (due to how electric his fastball and changeup are), that argument doesn't take into account both players' respective experiences, which is of tantamount importance in the postseason. It's also a tad risky to have Gil potentially pitch big innings in back-to-back days given the workload he's accrued this season and his injury history, so it's almost a nonstarter—no pun intended—to envision him contributing to both ALDS Game 3 and Game 4.

One of Gil's strengths is also the Royals' weakness—the fastball. Batters hit .205 and slugged .395 against Gil's heater this year. The Royals are 21st in terms of wOBA against the fastball, as Josh pointed out earlier in the week when talking about Carlos Rodón. For their part, on Monday night Kansas City was able to find success against the secondary stuff he was forced to rely upon upon once he lost command of his fastball. Gil could find success against the Royals as long as he can keep consistent command of his fastball. It's not that Clarke has a bad fastball, but rather that Gil's has exceptional life to it, as seen in quite a few of the K's below from September 6th in Chicago.

Again, Gil can still make a start during the ALCS if the Yankees make it that far. Schmidt has also looked sharp, albeit in a limited sample size this season. This analysis is also limited, hopefully much more so than the front office's when they made the decision. The bottom line is that Gil has looked dominant for stretches this season, and his stuff could dominate the current ALDS opponent. Time will tell if Boone and the Yankees made the right move starting Schmidt over Gil.