2025 MLB Season Preview: Houston Astros
03/12/2025 07:30 AM
Have we seen the end of the Astros dynasty?
It has been nearly a decade of the American League running through Houston, with 2015 representing the first time the Astros made the playoffs after their to-the-studs teardown. Since then they've taken home two World Series titles, four AL pennants, and won the division every year from 2017 on save for 2020. They have also, of course, eliminated the Yankees in four playoff series since 2015 — ok, three series and a Wild Card Game.
Coming in to 2025 though, the cracks are showing. Jose Altuve is done as the starting second baseman. Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman are wearing different uniforms. The starting rotation has more questions than it's had in a number of years. The road to the AL pennant may still go through the heart of Texas, but there may be a slight arrythmia.
2024 record: 88-73 (1st, AL West)
2025 FanGraphs projection: 84-78 (T1st, AL West)
Now, the above projection puts faith in the Seattle Mariners being a competitive, indeed competent, organization, and I'm not ready to concede that just yet. Still, this is the weakest we've seen the Astros on paper in a while, and the roster itself looks wildly different.
Let's start with everyone's favorite "5'6"" er, Altuve. His age-34 season saw a 127 wRC+, which isn't in itself a bad season — there are a number of Yankees due to hit 4-6 in the lineup that I'd be over the moon if they could manage a 127 wRC+. In Jose's case, that's his worst season since 2015, and a two-year trend of being one of the worst defensive second basemen in the game has him ticketed to the outfield.
Altuve moving to left field means that Yordan Alvarez, who somehow gets left out of the conversation of "best hitter in baseball not named Aaron Judge", takes over as fulltime DH. Alvarez does have a history of knee problems in both knees of course but has spoken about the challenges of staying focused on the games he skips the field.
Isaac Paredes is the replacement in the lineup for Kyle Tucker, and does seem custom-built for Minute Maid Park:
Kyle Tucker is a much better all-around player than Paredes, but if you make the decision that you don't want to pay Tucker, you could do worse than swapping him out for one of the game's most focused pull hitters.
On the pitching side, Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown represent a really solid top of the rotation, largely hinging on whether Brown can repeat his 2024. The former top prospect brought it all together last year, slashing his home run rate and lowering his ERA and FIP more than a full run apiece after a bad 2023.
After those two there's a fair amount of variance in the projected rotation. Ronel Blanco threw a no-hitter last year but is projected for just a win-and-a-half season. Hayden Wesneski, our former farmhand, gets a shot to round out the starting five after being a swingman across parts of three seasons with the Cubs. His home run issue has kept him from ever being truly effective, but then we were saying the same thing about Brown this time last year.
The AL West is truly up for grabs this year, and the Astros intentionally making themselves weaker this winter is a big part why. This is the part of the horror movie where we don't know if the killer is truly dead yet, and despite the steps back the organization has taken, I'm worried we're in for one last jump scare.
