Memphis vs. Virginia prediction, odds, pick for College Basketball

12/17/2024 06:56 PM

Memphis looks for a second straight win over the ACC as they face Virginia. It’s time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Memphis-Virginia prediction and pick.

Memphis comes into the game at 8-2 on the year. They opened the year 6-0, including Memphis having a victory over UConn. They would fall to a fourth-ranked Auburn team to end the winning streak. Since then, they have wins over Louisiana Tech and Clemson, but also a loss to Arkansas State. Meanwhile, Virginia is 6-4 on the year. They opened up 3-0 until back-to-back losses to Tennessee and St. Johns. They would win two more before falling to Florida and SMU.  Last time out, they beat Bethune-Cookman 59-41.

These two teams have faced twice in 2013. Virginia won in the second round of the NCAA tournament in 2013 over Memphis. Memphis won in 2023, 77-54 over Virginia.

Here are the Memphis-Virginia College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel 

College Basketball Odds: Memphis-Virginia State Odds

Memphis: -4.5 (-105)

Moneyline: -184

Virginia: +4.5 (-115)

Moneyline: +152

Over: 130.5 (-115)

Under: 1305. (-105)

How to Watch Memphis vs. Virginia

Time: 7:00 PM ET/ 4:00 PM PT

TV: ESPN2

*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*

Why Memphis Will Cover The Spread/Win

Memphis is ranked 33rd in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency rankings this year. They are 24th in offensive efficiency and 61st in defensive efficiency this year. Memphis has been wonderful on offense this year. They are 48th in the nation in points per game, while sitting 58th in effective field goal percentage. Further, they are second in the nation in three-point percentage for the year. A big part of the offense for Memphis has been strong second-half performances. They are 13th in the nation in points per second half this year.

P.J. Harggerty has led the way for Memphis this year. He leads the team in both points and rebounds on the season. He has 21.9 points per game while adding six rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 2.2 steals per game this year. Haggerty is joined by Tyrese Hunter in the backcourt. Hunter is shooting 51.6 percent from three this year, while also adding 16 points, 3.9 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 1.6 steals per game. Finally, Colby Rogers has 13.4 points per game. Rogers has also been giving the team 1.8 rebounds and 1.4 assists per game this year.

In the frontcourt, Dain Dainja leads the way. He is scoring 10.9 points per game but also has 6.3 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game. He is joined in the frontcourt by Nicholas Jourdain. Jourdain is scoring just 7.1 points per game but adds 5.3 rebounds, 1.4 assists, and 1.1 steals per game. Finally, Moussa Cisse is scoring just 5.9 points per game but also helps down low. He is adding 5.5 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per game this year.

Why Virginia Will Cover The Spread/Win

Virginia is ranked 103rd in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency rankings this year. They are 189th in adjusted offensive efficiency while sitting 41st in adjusted defensive efficiency. Virginia is great on defense. They are 11th in the nation in opponent points per game, while they rarely send opponents to the line. They are second in the nation in opponent free throw attempts per game this year. Further, they start games strong, sitting eighth in opponent first-half points this year.

Virginia’s top-scoring threat is Isaac McKneely. He is scoring 12.9 points per game this year while shooting 44.4 percent from the field. He also adds 3.8 rebounds, three assists, and one steal per game. McKneely is joined in the backcourt by Andrew Rohde. He comes into the game with 2.9 assists per game this year, while also adding nine points and 1.9 rebounds.

In the frontcourt, Elijah Saunders leads the way. He scored ten points per game this year, while also adding 5.1 rebounds. Jacob Cofie joins him and leads the team in rebounding. Cofie has 6.3 rebounds per game this year, while he scored 8.7 points, and adds 1.4 assists, and 1.1 blocks per game. Finally, Blake Buchanan has been solid on the glass as well. He has 5.5 rebounds per game this year, while also adding 6.3 points and 1.8 assists per game

Final Memphis-Virginia Prediction & Pick

This is a game of contrasting styles. Memphis is strong on offense, while Virginia is led by their defense. Still, the delta between the two weaker units on the floor is massive. Virginia is 358th in the nation in points per game, while also sitting 285th in rebounds per game. Memphis is 262nd in opponent points per game while sitting 189th in rebounds per game this year. Virginia plays with one of the slowest tempos in the nation, while Memphis is 71st in the nation in tempo. So this game will come down to efficiency. Virginia’s ability to limit effective shots will be the difference in this one.

Final Memphis-Virginia Prediction & Pick: Virginia +4.5 (-115) 

The post Memphis vs. Virginia prediction, odds, pick for College Basketball appeared first on ClutchPoints.