Why Wizards fans shouldn't worry about wins ruining tank

Yesterday at 07:51 PM

The Washington Wizards are winning so much that it could foil one of this season’s main missions: securing the NBA’s worst record to ensure a top-five lottery pick this summer. They’re 5-4 in their last nine games and 8-10 in their last 18, a stunning turnaround for a team that started 6-41.

The Wizards were winless in November and had two 16-game losing streaks, but that was with a different roster. They executed a mini-overhaul at the trade deadline, shipping out Kyle Kuzma and Jonas Valanciunas while adding Khris Middleton, Marcus Smart, and rookie AJ Johnson. The results have been splendid, as Middleton shares the ball more (4.1 assists per game with Washington compared to Kuzma’s 2.5) and has taken less shots (9.6 per game against Kuzma’s 14.2), a big reason why the team is 5-4 with him.

Smart has been effective as well, as he sports a 55.5 effective field goal percentage and 59 true shooting percentage since arriving to Washington, which ranks fourth on the current roster. The former Defensive Player of the Year’s 109.7 defensive rating ranks second among the regular rotation players, behind only Middleton (106), via NBA Advanced Stats.

Valanciunas’ absence allows Alex Sarr to shine, as he’s scored double-digit points in six of his last eight games, and has two with at least 21. The No. 2 overall pick tallied 19 points (7-12 FG, 3-6 3 PT) with five rebounds, four blocks, and three assists across 30 minutes in the Wizards’ 129-125 upset win over the Detroit Pistons on Thursday, including a highlight-reel rejection against Cade Cunningham.

BIG BLOCK FOR THE ROOK pic.twitter.com/FwDkOECFdd

— Washington Wizards (@WashWizards) March 14, 2025

Fellow rookie Kyshawn George has also improved, as he’s averaging 11.4 points on 38.9 percent shooting with 5.3 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.6 blocks, and 1.4 steals across 31.6 minutes in March after tallying 5.4 points (31.7 percent) with four boards, 1.4 dimes, 0.9 rejections, and 0.6 swipes across 23 minutes in December. Meanwhile, No. 14 overall pick Bub Carrington has taken 3.3 more shots a night since February, increasing his assertiveness offensively.

The Wiz Kids’ improvement is the team’s most important development recently, and the veteran boost has made it competitive. Beating the Pistons (37-30) on the road was a landmark moment, as it was Washington’s first win against a playoff team since the race started heating up in February.

Now, the Wizards are essentially tied with the Utah Jazz at the bottom of the NBA standings. The Jazz (15-52) are .009 win percentage points ahead, but the race to the bottom will be a close one as the regular season wraps up.

Some Washington fans may be upset about this, but it’s nothing to stress over.

Wizards winning is good for development

Part of developing is learning how to win games, so Washington’s recent form shows that its program is working. The young players playing competitive basketball will help them stay engaged, and is a good reward for the work they’ve put in. Carrington, for example, leads all rookies with 29.3 minutes per game. George is second with 27.1, and Sarr is fourth with 26.9.

Plus, the Wizards still have a good chance of finishing at the bottom anyway. They have five games left against teams with a .500 or better record starting with Saturday’s Denver Nuggets matchup, and the NBA recently fined the Jazz $100,000 for sitting Lauri Markkanen too much. Washington beat them 125-122 at home on March 5 with Markkanen (back), Walker Kessler (rest), Colin Sexton (ankle), and Keyonte George (illness) all out.

Assuming that Utah plays more of its players to avoid another fine against the Wizards at home on Wednesday, it has a decent chance of winning that game. Washington will also be without Bilal Coulibaly (knee) this time, as he’s likely done for the season.

Losing that Jazz contest would go a long way toward ensuring their last-place ranking, but what if it wins? In fact, what if it goes on a hot streak and finishes above Utah?

The Wizards’ draft odds wouldn’t change much. The bottom-three teams have the same exact chance to land both the No. 1 pick (14 percent) and a top-four selection (52.1 percent), via Tankathon. The only difference is that the last-place organization is guaranteed a top-five pick, while the second-worst could fall to No. 6, and the third to No. 7.

Cooper Flagg, Dylan Harper, and Ace Bailey are considered the top-three picks with star potential in this draft class. It’s murky after that, as players like VJ Edgecombe, Kaspar Jakucionis, and Tre Johnson all have upside, but aren’t as tantalizing. If Washington is unlucky enough to fall below the top three on May 12, its likely doesn’t matter which pick it gets, since nobody outside that section has the same ceiling.

That’s why Wizards fans should enjoy the rest of the season as the young core grows without worrying about lottery odds. The basketball gods will do what they do on May 12, but the team’s recent stretch shows that it has a bright future regardless.

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