What Hawks' NBA Cup run proves about trade strategy
Yesterday at 06:30 PM
The Atlanta Hawks have Trae Young, Jalen Johnson, Zaccharie Risacher, and Dyson Daniels on their roster. After extending Johnson this past offseason, all four players are signed at least through the 2025-26 campaign. That qualifies them as a core in my books.
The talented group of four is generally unproven but has shown clear potential. A loss to the Milwaukee Bucks ended the team’s recent run to the NBA Cup’s Semifinals. But they beat a talented New York Knicks to make it to Las Vegas in the first place. It’s definitely something for Atlanta to work with.
Despite the success, the Hawks are reportedly listening to offers for the veterans on their roster, per ESPN’s Brian Windhorst. And Bogdan Bogdanovic has been the player garnering the most attention from other teams.
The team had a slow start to the season. Through their first 12 games, they allowed the second most points per game by opponents in the NBA behind the Washington Wizards. But they’ve turned things around and they’ve turned heads in the process. The Hawks have won seven of their last 10 games, including that NBA Cup Quarterfinal match against the Knicks.
Funnily enough, this Hawks team is reminiscent of the '20-21 Knicks they beat in the playoffs, to a mild extent. The Hawks are a more talented team overall but the vibes seem similar. A team coming off of a failure of a season with a lone star player that the NBA landscape seems unsure about and several young players itching to break out? That’ll do it.
Speaking of that Knicks team, Atlanta should try and make an honest run at the playoffs this season themselves. Ignore the noise. Forget the Eastern Conference Finals run in 2021. Put the years with Dejounte Murray in the past.
Give yourself a clean slate and look to the future. Some important pieces of it are already in the building.
The Hawks might be closer to contention than we think
Acquiring Derrick Rose propelled that Knicks team to the fourth seed in the East and an NBA Playoffs appearance. That momentum eventually helped land the franchise Jalen Brunson in free agency. Things progressed from there.
The Hawks should at least explore making a move similar in intention and look for a potential first domino to help build some meaningful momentum. The team lacked in guard play to begin the season but looked toward the returns of Bogdan Bogdanovic and Kobe Bufkin from injuries to address that.
Bogdanovic was fantastic offensively last season with an offensive-EPM in the NBA’s 87th percentile, per Dunks & Threes. He’s struggled mightily in his first 12 games back from a hamstring injury.
I’ve always thought it important for developing teams to have solid big-man play. Young players of any archetype can benefit from an industry veteran who knows the ropes and can set a great screen. Clint Capela and Larry Nance Jr. are veterans that give Atlanta just that. Capela is 30 years old and a free agent after this season. Some trade rumors circulated throughout the offseason but he remains a Hawk. Nance Jr. is almost 32 and also a free agent after the year. The two will free up over $33 million in cap space.
Both bigs are important for Atlanta. Despite flashing potential and having solid statistical averages, Onyeka Okongwu hasn't yet fully developed. He's still only 23 years old and has yet to grow his game to an extent where Atlanta has felt comfortable moving on from Capela as many expected after they selected Okongwu sixth overall in 2020. But the team signed him to a $62 million extension in 2023. And whether it’s to justify the salary or because he’s developed further, the Hawks should try him with their core four at some point.
Where can the Hawks go from here?
The Hawks’ first-round pick this season is going to the San Antonio Spurs. They sent it to them as part of the deal for Murray. But the Hawks got the Lakers’ first-round selection from the Pelicans when they later traded Murray away. And although they currently wouldn’t receive it if the standings hold, they also have the rights to the Kings’ pick as long as it’s not in the top 12.
The team can sit idly by and continue trying to make the most of the draft selections they have ahead of them. Hitting guys wide open in the flat for a gain of a couple yards at a time. Adding incrementally to their (again, solid) core until one day it’s enough to come out of the Eastern Conference. Or they can take a shot down the field.
The NBA’s 2025 free agency class is highlighted by LeBron James, Jimmy Butler, Kyrie Irving, James Harden, and other players older than 30 who can still contribute. Khris Middleton and Julius Randle are in the next tier down in regards to name-brand value but are also on the elder side of 30. Unless the Hawks think that Naz Reid is attainable or that Jonathan Kuminga or Josh Giddey can be their next major piece, that leaves 27-year-old Brandon Ingram.
Given that Capela’s deal expires after the season and teams have interest in Bogdanovic, the perfect move for Atlanta could involve consolidating the two. It would make space for Okongwu and capitalize on the Bogdanovic’s market not necessarily matching his recent on-court contributions.
Capela and Bogdanovic combine to make about $39.5 million this season. Ingram and 24-year old forward Jeremiah Robinson-Earl combine to make $36 million. Make a bet on the Sacramento Kings by adding in the Lakers’ first-round selection to sweeten the pot and compensate for Capela not being signed long-term. And make a deal.
The money works, per Fanspo. Ingram does not magically solve every issue the Hawks have had this season. He does not instantly transform them into a contender. Even in his most impactful offensive seasons, his true shooting percentage still only grades out around the middle of the league. But he would give the Hawks another creator. And allow players like Daniels and Risacher to focus on contributing off the ball and on defense.
Ingram’s future with the Pelicans is entirely uncertain because the two sides have not agreed on a contract extension. But the Hawks are making this deal to make a run deep into the 2024 NBA Playoffs. Ingram is a free agent and the Hawks would be under no obligation to extend him at any number of his choosing. The market would decide Ingram’s value and Atlanta would have a leg up on any interested teams.
This move would be a bet on head coach Quin Snyder’s ability to optimize his players’ offensive talent. It would be a bet on Trae Young’s leadership skills, which have recently improved per Windhorst. And it would be a bet that Ingram would be interested in returning after the season.
The threat of Ingram leaving and leaving the Hawks feeling silly for surrendering a first-round draft selection would not be worth bypassing this opportunity entirely. His salary would be large if he extended and it would not be the small-scale addition that Rose was for New York in 2020. But we’ve acknowledged these Hawks are better than those Knicks and re-adjust the comparison.
Ingram could serve as the Hawks’ Julius Randle. The wing is three years younger than Randle but played alongside him early on in their careers. And the Knicks needed several seasons of inching closer to contention before moving Randle for their final piece in Karl-Anthony Towns. Three years after the trade, when Ingram is Randle’s current age, he might be playing on the other side of the country.
Or he might still be in Atlanta. Either way, he’s a worthwhile target for the Hawks because he can diversify their offense. And he’d help them take advantage of pending cap space that there might not currently be a better candidate for than Ingram himself in the coming offseason.
The post What Hawks' NBA Cup run proves about trade strategy appeared first on ClutchPoints.
