Timberwolves vs. Mavericks prediction, odds, pick for NBA Christmas 2024
Yesterday at 10:48 PM
The Minnesota Timberwolves will face the Dallas Mavericks on Christmas Day. It’s a Western Conference Finals rematch as we share our NBA Christmas odds series and make a Timberwolves-Mavericks prediction and pick.
The Mavericks lead the head-to-head series 78-59. Recently, they beat the Wolves 120-114 on October 29, 2024 at the Target Center. The Wolves are 6-4 in the past 10 games against the Mavs. Yet, the Mavericks are 3-2 in the past five games against the Timberwolves over the past five games at American Airlines Arena.
Here are the Timberwolves-Mavericks NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Odds: Timberwolves-Mavericks Odds
Minnesota Timberwolves: +5 (-112)
Moneyline: +176
Dallas Mavericks: -5 (-108)
Moneyline: -210
Over: 223.5 (-110)
Under: 223.5 (-110)
How To Watch Timberwolves vs. Mavericks
Time: 2:30 PM ET/11:30 AM PT
TV: ESPN, ABC, ESPN2, ESPN+ and Disney+
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Why the Timberwolves Could Cover the Spread/Win
The Timberwolves have an identity crisis, and Anthony Edwards ripped the offense for their performance in recent games, citing that he and Julius Randle were the only players who were putting up buckets, with the rest being unknown quantities. Because of the struggling offense, the Wolves are barely clinging to a play-in spot and have looked nothing like the dangerous team that nearly went to the NBA Finals last season.
For his part, Edwards continues to shine and evolve. He is averaging around the same numbers he had last season, nearly identical in every way. But Edwards is shooting significantly better from the triples. Likewise, Randle has been a good addition to the Wolves. However, his numbers are slightly down from his last season in New York, when he averaged 24 points and 9.2 rebounds per game.
The rest of the team has numerous question marks, and it’s one reason why the Wolves are mediocre at shooting the basketball this season. Additionally, they have not dominated the boards as they envisioned as they entered this game, ranking among the bottom 5 in rebounding. The addition of Randle has not helped their defense, either, as the Wolves are bottom 10 in blocked shots.
The Timberwolves will cover the spread if Edwards and Randle continue shooting the basketball well while getting their teammates’ help. Then, they must defend the rim and win the board battle.
Why the Mavericks Could Cover the Spread/Win
The Mavs are doing well this season as they attempt to return to the NBA Finals. However, there is some concern as Luka Doncic suffered a heel injury this week and is questionable to play on Christmas Day. Objectively, he is the best player on this team, and the Mavs need him to stay healthy to have a chance to get back to the NBA Finals.
Kyrie Irving shot poorly when he returned from injury, shooting 6 for 25 against the Los Angeles Clippers on Saturday. Consequently, that will not get the job done on most nights. While the Mavs have good depth, they still need Irving to play like a superstar, especially if Doncic misses more time. Klay Thompson has been a similar story, struggling to shoot the basketball consistently but still scoring. Therefore, expect him to be heavily involved in this game as the Mavs attempt to beat the Wolves again.
PJ Washington Jr., Daniel Gafford, and Naji Marshall all provide great supplementary scoring for the Mavericks. Overall, this bunch does a solid job of converting on-field-goal attempts when Irving and Thompson struggle. It has helped turn the Mavs into a top-10 team in shooting. Likewise, winning the board battle has been elemental for the Mavericks, as they are in the Top-5 in that category.
The Mavericks will cover the spread if their stars can continue shooting the ball well while also giving their teammates some golden chances. Then, they must contain Edwards and Randle while forcing them to turn to other options.
Final Timberwolves-Mavericks Prediction & Pick
The Timberwolves are 11-17 against the spread, while the Mavericks are 17-11 against the odds. Moreover, the Wolves are 7-7 against the spread on the road, while the Mavs are 9-5 against the odds at home.
The Timberwolves are 1-1 on Christmas Day, with their last outing on the holiday taking place on December 25, 2017, where they defeated the Los Angeles Lakers 121-114. Meanwhile, the Mavericks are 4-3 on Christmas Day and making their fourth consecutive appearance on the holiday. The Mavs defeated the Phoenix Suns 128-114 last Christmas.
This pick is entirely based on the likelihood that Doncic will play. They took down the Wolves by six points in their last encounter. Overall, I feel the Mavericks are the much better team right now and will do enough to send their fans home happy on Christmas Day.
Final Timberwolves-Mavericks Prediction & Pick: Dallas Mavericks: -5 (-108)
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