Jimmy Butler trade grades for ESPN's hypothetical Rockets-Heat deal
12/21/2024 03:48 PM
The latest NBA star whose name is making headlines related to trade talks seems to be the Miami Heat’s Jimmy Butler. At some point in every season in recent memory, a star player shakes loose and becomes available via trade. And despite leading the Heat to NBA Finals appearances in 2020 and 2023, the latest rumors surrounding star-hungry teams such as the Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs involve Butler.
Fans and analysts are flocking to trade machines to propose deals that find Butler a new home. It’s impossible to project what kind of return the Heat will want for Butler without knowing what they plan to do next. If the plan is to reshuffle the roster but remain competitive, the team would likely have to venture into the murky waters that represent Brandon Ingram’s trade market.
But if Miami’s braintrust is of the opinion that this iteration of their team got their two best shots at a championship and just weren’t able to make either, the goal could be to tear it down. And then trading Butler for draft capital would become a priority. If young talent can be part of the salary that makes the deal work, so be it.
One hypothetical deal between the Heat and the Rockets, from ESPN’s Kevin Pelton, fits the latter of those two paths forward. Pelton’s deal has Miami sending Butler to Houston in exchange for Dillon Brooks, Steven Adams, and two first-round picks in 2027 and 2029. The Heat would receive whichever pick is worse between the Rockets and Nets’ picks in 2027 as well as the second-best pick out of the Mavericks, Rockets, and Suns’ picks.
Is trading Jimmy Butler too early better for the Heat than being too late?
National analysts lambasted the New York Knicks for months after the Kristaps Porzingis deal. They were better off with the draft capital than paying him a max contract. The Los Angeles Lakers moved Brandon Ingram before he was due for his max deal and won a championship. Trading someone whose contract looks like it may impede your plans before it catalyzes them is not a free ticket to the NBA Playoffs. But pundits and fans alike malign the strategy, even if it is looked back on years later as having been intelligent.
The Heat should not care. If they’re going to reset their books and therefore their roster, they should be interested in setting up whoever is going to be in charge of the Miami Heat for success. It might be the same regime! It might not. If Pat Riley and the Heat are going to take a long-term approach, they should lean into it instead of pretending they’d like to remain competitive while slowly trading the teams’ best players away one-by-one.
Green (38) and Adams (still only 31, somehow) are on expiring contracts and would come off the books by June 2025 at the latest. Brooks is signed through the 2026-27 season on a team-friendly contract that descends in annual value until its expiration. Brooks’ toughness has manifested itself in several ways throughout the years and he would fit “Heat Culture” well.
KP’s Trade Grade for the Miami Heat: B+
Houston could do better if their plan is to sacrifice future draft capital to upgrade their talent and acquire a star. Butler turned 35 years old in September and has a player option for next season that surpasses $52 million in salary. But two first-round draft selections is not an unreasonable economic barrier to entry for the Rockets. And Houston could combine Butler’s salary with young talent and additional draft capital for a star that fits their timeline better.
This return for Jimmy Butler will not excite people in the Miami Heat organization, locker room, or fanbase. But it might be the best move for the team going forward. That means Riley, and the rest of Miami’s braintrust, should consider it.
KP’s Trade Grade for the Houston Rockets: C
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