Fatal flaw Celtics must fix at 2025 NBA trade deadline

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The Boston Celtics have already climbed the mountaintop of the NBA. Keeping the Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown duo has paid dividends, and they have assembled quite the deep ensemble cast, with Kristaps Porzingis, Derrick White, Jrue Holiday, and Al Horford all being battle-tested perfect pieces that have all combined to complete the Celtics’ championship puzzle. And just to give them an even greater embarrassment of riches, the likes of Payton Pritchard, Sam Hauser, and Luke Kornet have all become legitimate rotation players or even better.

There is no reason to believe that other contending teams such as the Cleveland Cavaliers or Oklahoma City Thunder, just to name a few, have overtaken the Celtics as the favorite to win it all come June. Boston may not be as dominant as they were last season, as they currently have a 28-11 record, but they have been there and done that and they remain hungry as ever to win another championship.

Stylistically speaking, the Celtics are playing the ideal brand of basketball for today’s NBA. Their immense success last season on both ends of the floor is a testament to that. But is there a chance that the league has caught up to them, thus necessitating a change or two here and there to throw teams that are looking to dethrone them off the scent?

Here is a fatal flaw that could end up being the Celtics’ undoing if they aren’t so careful.

Are the Celtics too reliant on the long ball for their success?

The goal of the analytics movement isn’t for teams to shoot as many threes as they want. Sure, the three-ball is worth 150 percent more points than a regular two-pointer, but the endgame for teams is still to get as good of a shot as they can on every possession. Layups and dunks are still the most efficient shot in basketball after all, and teams would want to get to the basket as much as they can.

Defenses then counter this by sending help defense, walling offenses from scoring at will in the paint by daring them to make as many outside shots as they can. Three-point shooting, by nature, is more subject to variance, although the Celtics are looking to tilt the mathematical equation in their favor by shooting an average of 49.4 threes a night — which comprise over half of their shot diet (they average 90.8 shots per game).

Last season, three-pointers only comprised 47 percent of the Celtics’ field-goal attempts. They had a similar ratio in the playoffs, and it translated into quite the successful postseason run for them. But this season, 54.4 percent of their total shots have come from beyond the arc. Are the Celtics settling for too many threes? And what happens if those shots don’t fall during the games that matter?

No one can say that this system of theirs isn’t working; the Celtics rank second in offensive rating, scoring 119.2 points per 100 possessions — not bad at all of a follow-up to their historic 122.2 offensive rating last season. All of their consistent rotation players, aside from Luke Kornet and Neemias Queta, can shoot the long ball and cannot be left wide open, which opens up a ton in terms of their offensive execution.

However, the past few games have shown that the Celtics can bleed if their shots aren’t falling from three. They got blown out by the Thunder, was caught in a competitive game against the Nikola Jokic-less Denver Nuggets, lost to the Sacramento Kings, and nearly tripped on a banana peel against the New Orleans Pelicans in a one-point victory. During that four-game stretch, they shot 45/166 from three — a 27.1 percent clip.

It’s fair to wonder whether or not the Celtics are overreliant on the three-ball and whether their shot diet as a team leaves them vulnerable to dry spells that could mean all the difference in a playoff series against an excellent team such as the Cavs — the team currently boasting the league’s best offense.

Is there any trade or change that Boston could make to rectify this potentially fatal flaw?

It’s unlikely for the Celtics to make a move on the trade market or pick up someone via a buyout. They are currently over the second tax apron, and it’s unlikely that they’ll part ways with any member of their roster considering they’ve become a tight-knit group that’s locked into their collective goal of winning a championship.

If anything, all the Celtics could do is look inward and re-assess as a unit if they’re becoming overreliant on the long ball. Come playoff time, the Celtics should know that the worst thing they can do is settle for contested jumpshots when the stakes are at their highest.

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