Dallas Mavericks dream, nightmare seeding, matchup scenarios for 2025 NBA Playoffs

03/28/2025 08:42 AM

It’s safe to say that the 2024-25 season hasn’t been kind to the reigning Western Conference champions. The Dallas Mavericks are only at the 10th seed with a 36-38 win-loss record. Nonetheless, this is still good enough to still have a place in the Play-In Tournament conversation. However, Dallas does have an injury problem.

The Mavericks first took center stage at the trade deadline when they shipped away their face of the franchise in Luka Doncic for NBA champion Anthony Davis. The move ultimately raised more eyebrows when Davis fell to injury as early as his first game. Davis would only return to action over a month later after recovering from a left adductor strain. To make matters worse, Kyrie Irving would succumb to a left ACL tear, sidelining him for the rest of the season.

Fortunately for the Mavs, Davis has returned to action. While his presence will fuel their playoff campaign, it still won’t be a walk in the park as they carry monstrous expectations to redeem themselves after giving up their franchise star.

Dream scenario: Dallas Mavericks gets the ninth seed and sneak past the Play-In Tournament

Sitting at the 10th seed, the Mavs still have a good chance of sneaking into the playoffs. But first, they need to clinch a spot at the Play-In Tournament and get past it. Assuming Dallas finds a way to secure the ninth seed, Davis needs to not only remain healthy but also find a way to establish himself as the superstar of this team. This starts by either dominating a struggling Phoenix Suns team or ending his curse against Domantas Sabonis and the Sacramento Kings.

The Kings are favored to be the Mavs’ first Play-In assignment if they make it to the tournament. Historically, it’s worth noting that Sabonis has a 10-4 record over the Davis. Now, with Dallas, the latter looks to change the tide of their matchups.

Should they get past the Kings or Suns, the Mavs can face either the Golden State Warriors or the Minnesota Timberwolves. It’s safe to say that the Warriors are a better matchup for the Mavericks. They will also be favored to win against the Timberwolves, especially with the newly formed duo of Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler.

However, the Warriors also don’t have the depth at the five to slowdown the frontcourt of Dallas. With a thin frontcourt rotation led by Draymond Green, it’s going to be a herculean task to slowdown AD, Dereck Lively II, and Daniel Gafford. Furthermore, you can count on Klay Thompson to bring out another shooting clinic against his former team which would be a perfect ingredient to pull off an upset in a do-or-die scenario.

If Dallas finds a way to make it to the postseason, they will most likely enter as the eighth seed, which paves the way for an early collision against the top team in the West, the Oklahoma City Thunder. Although the Thunder will be heavily favored in this scenario, a positive side for the Mavs is Davis’ ability to punish small-ball teams.

Moreover, the Mavs have also more experienced personnel under their belt. If the Mavericks can stay at full strength and play quality basketball, Nico Harrison and the front office might have a slight chance to prove his doubters wrong, but it’s still a long shot.

Nightmare scenario: Dallas Mavericks fail to secure a spot at the Play-In Tournament/Anthony Davis gets injured

With a 36-38 record, there’s still a solid chance that the Mavericks might not even make it to the Play-In Tournament at all, which will automatically deem this season as a failure. The 11th-seeded Phoenix Suns are creeping in with a 35-38 record, and they also hold the advantage in case of a tie-breaker. With Irving out for the rest of the season with a torn ACL, the Mavericks will be forced to lean on AD to carry them into the playoffs.

Dallas has gone undefeated when Davis is in the lineup, proving that the 10-time NBA All-Star is still a force to be reckoned with, even in a new jersey. In a Mavs uniform, Davis has averaged 19.0 points, 11.0 rebounds, and 5.0 assists per game. Clearly, Dallas will go as far as he takes them. As a result, it would be a nightmare if AD falls to injury at this crucial stretch of the season.

Given Davis’ injury history, injuries will always be a possibility. And if the worst happens, it’s safe to say that the Mavericks will have to kiss their playoff hopes goodbye while facing a future of uncertainty.

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