Are Warriors too high on Brandin Podziemski after making him untouchable?

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The Golden State Warriors still don’t have a set starting lineup less than four days from tipoff of the regular season. Stephen Curry and Draymond Green’s spots have been cemented since before Media Day in late September, and Steve Kerr has indirectly suggested that Andrew Wiggins’ name is penciled along Golden State’s future Hall-of-Famers after a stellar offseason mostly spent working out with the team in San Francisco.

Training camp in Hawaii confirmed what seemed clear after general manager Mike Dunleavy Jr. and the front office were done re-shaping the roster by mid-August. With no consolidation trade for another star likely, the Warriors would enter 2024-25 with a surplus of viable rotation players—the same “good problem” they never figured out last season, lacking the identity and continuity needed for the Dubs’ whole to loom larger than the sum of its parts.

Minor injuries and absences throughout the preseason increase Golden State’s risk of a similar fate. Wiggins missed the first four exhibition games due to illness. Stephen Curry sat out the last two with a jammed index finger on his shooting hand. De’Anthony Melton was sidelined for one game as his back issue briefly flared up, and Brandin Podziemski joined him on the bench while watching to be fitted for a protective mask after breaking his nose.

Settling on a starting five and even nightly rotation was always going to be difficult for Kerr and the coaching staff. That arduous task would’ve been easier if Podziemski had taken the same strides fellow post-Curry franchise pillar Jonathan Kuminga did over the summer, essentially forcing the Warriors’ hand to make him a starter regardless of his presumed position or or the team’s preferred lineup configurations.

Instead, the development of Golden State’s prized sophomore guard has seemed to stall, calling the franchise’s bright-eyed assessment of his present and future into question.

Brandin Podziemski, future All-Star or impact reserve?

Warriors owner Joe Lacob telegraphed his team’s extreme reluctance to include Podziemski in any prospective trades for another star alongside Curry at Las Vegas Summer League. After watching him average 18.5 points, 9.5 rebounds and  6.5 assists on 50% shooting from both the field and beyond the arc across just two games in Sin City, Golden State shut Podziemski down, its billionaire owner more confident in his prospects than ever following a standout rookie season.

“Oh my god,” Lacob began when asked about Podziemski’s debut campaign on Las Vegas sidelines. “He was a revelation, to be quite honest. He was All-Rookie team top-five in the league, he started a whole bunch of games for us. Steve had trouble getting him off the floor. I mean, he had to have him on the floor [Podziemski] was so good. He does so many things well. He’s ultra-confident, he’s got an NBA body, can get wherever he wants. He obviously can shoot threes. He can drive, he can pass. I mean, what can’t he do?

“We’re really excited,” he continued. “We think we’ve got a future All-Star, we really do.”

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There’s no debating the impact Podziemski made with the Dubs in 2023-24. He was a fully deserving First Team All-Rookie selection, stuffing the stat sheet on solid offensive efficiency while answering most of the pre-draft questions that dogged him on the other side of the ball.

Podziemski led Golden State in overall plus-minus. He relentlessly pushed pace in transition, served as a passing, screening and cutting “connector” in the halfcourt and even topped the league in charges—all evidence of his precocious two-way processing speed at just 21 years old.

There’s no denying that selecting Podziemski at No. 19 overall in what was broadly considered a subpar draft class is a major win for the Warriors’ front office. What’s almost as obvious, at least outside the walls of Chase Center, is that Golden State could be letting prideful excitement over that development color its appraisal of his potential.

How else to explain the Dubs summarily balking at summer trade proposals for Lauri Markkanen that would’ve sent Podziemski to the Utah Jazz—especially amid an apparent belief the latter would help them more than the former going forward?

“Any trade incorporating either [Podziemski or Kuminga] would have to help with the long-term success of the team more than they would,” sources told ESPN’s Kendra Andrews in early August, as trade talks for Markkanen fell through for good. “Golden State intends to hold onto those players ‘very tightly,’ and anything to loosen the grip on them would have to be an ‘overwhelming offer.'”

Parting ways with a future All-Star point guard and multiple first-round picks to bring in a young veteran like Markkanen who needed a near-max extension would’ve been tough for the Warriors.

But other than “lightyears”-type faith in their own scouting and decision-making—the same mindset that left Lacob clinging to former No. 2 overall  pick James Wiseman until he was worth nothing more via trade than salary savings and an injured Gary Payton II—what is it about Podziemski’s game that screams future All-Star to Golden State’s bosses?

Third guard destiny likely coming early

The Warriors’ sky-high valuation on Podziemski seemed to cinch his place in the starting lineup once it was clear his inclusion was their sticking point in a trade for Markkanen. Klay Thompson’s exit left a gaping hole next to Curry in the backcourt, and Podziemski had already overtaken the Golden State legend as a starter for a stint during his final season in the Bay.

Podziemski would be a plug-and-play replacement for Thompson this season, right? Wrong.

He seems bound for a bench role ahead of Wednesday’s season opener against the Portland Trail Blazers, with signs pointing to Kerr prioritizing size, athleticism and defense by starting big with Wiggins, Kuminga and Trayce Jackson-Davis next to Curry and Green. Melton likely has a leg up on Podziemski as the backcourt starter next to Curry even if the Dubs start smaller.

Podziemski has asserted time and again since the draft that he feels most comfortable at point guard, initiating offense and setting up his teammates. The Warriors could sorely use additional playmaking dynamism, too, affording Curry more time off the ball and limiting the need for Draymond Green to play de facto floor general. There was a golden opportunity, basically, for Podziemski to win a starting spot outright, and that indeed should’ve been the expectation considering how highly the team regards him.

Take that telling factor out of the equation, though, and look at Podziemski in an NBA vacuum. He isn’t the knockdown long-range shooter Lacob says, absent the versatility to comfortably launch from multiple angles and quickly pull up off the bounce. He doesn’t regularly crease the paint without a built-in advantage and lacks the physical tools and finishing craft needed to score among the trees. Smart as Podziemski is defensively, that doesn’t make him a worthy option checking star ball-handlers.

What’s the truly standout attribute that should make Podziemski a long-term starter, let alone future All-Star? Those type of guards don’t derive success from feel and court sense first and foremost, instead relying on a confluence of athleticism and skill he just doesn’t have at the moment and may never muster.

Podziemski can still be a fixture for the Warriors as a top-tier third guard, spot starter and occasional closer. There’s nothing wrong with admitting that likelihood. In fact, it’s paramount to the twilight of Curry’s career that Golden State collectively comes to grips with it now, lest Lacob and Dunleavy miss out on another franchise-altering trade opportunity they so confidently squashed in the offseason.

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