3 Joel Embiid bold predictions for 76ers' 2024-25 NBA season

Today at 10:59 AM

Joel Embiid is excited about the new roster the Philadelphia 76ers have in place and wants to win the championship above all else. He may likely have one of the most uneventful regular seasons of his career with the hopes of piecing together a momentous postseason run.

It’s tough to predict what kind of regular season Embiid will have because he may not play much of it. He has cast serious doubt on his availability for back-to-backs, leaving the 76ers without him for at least 15 games. He’ll surely miss plenty more with smaller injuries here and there. When he plays, he’s going to be great, especially with the addition of Paul George and another season to get familiarity with head coach Nick Nurse.

Embiid has accomplished almost everything there is for a basketball player to do, especially after adding an Olympic gold medal to his trophy case. Now, his sights are set squarely on an NBA championship. Here are three bold predictions for Embiid’s 2024-25 season.

1. Embiid has the best three-point shooting season of his career

Last season, Embiid recorded a career-high three-point percentage (38.8 percent) and tied his career-best mark in made threes per game (1.4), which he first reached in 2021-22. He should set new career highs in both stats this season.

Having George and Tyrese Maxey will benefit Embiid in two crucial ways. First, it will make catch-and-shoot attempts much easier for him, offering him more space away from defenders. Relatedly, it allows him to ditch off-the-dribble threes, at which he is terrible, and allows him to only shoot off the catch, at which he is great.

In each of the last two seasons, Embiid has shot at least 39 percent on catch-and-shoot looks (including a ridiculous, unsustainably high 55.4 percent of then last season) and shot below 25 percent on off-the-dribble looks. The big man can shoot off the bounce from mid-range as well as anyone in the sport but is not equipped to consistently be a threat on that type of shot from that far out. He’s better off eliminating that shot from his repertoire and focusing on the three-point shot that he’s good at. A tandem of star teammates should allow him to do just that, even if one of them is bound to sit out plenty of games.

Embiid’s three-point shooting is certainly an under-discussed skill that the Sixers would be wise to utilize more. Still, he’s certainly not going to amend his game to be like the Karl-Anthony Towns’ of the world. He’s still going to set up in the post, both high and low, to bludgeon opponents in the paint or pull up for a silky smooth jumper over the top of them. Nonetheless, Embiid can be a bigger threat from deep.

2. Embiid averages below 3.0 turnovers per game for the first time

Sticking with the theme of star teammates making Embiid’s life easier, the big man being able to cede offensive control to them means that he should have fewer opportunities to turn the ball over. The closest he came to averaging below a trio of turnovers over a season was 3.1, which he has done thrice.

Embiid’s workload in recent memory has been remarkably high. Even with star-level guards to help set him up, his usage rate has surpassed 37 percent in each of the last three seasons. No one else has that many seasons with such a humungous workload. If there was ever a time for him to pump the breaks, it’s now.

Now, usage percentage does not directly reflect how much time a player spends with the ball. That stat pays no mind to how much time a player possesses the ball, just the rate at which they use a possession (by shooting, committing a turnover or drawing a foul). But with George in the fold, Embiid should feel inclined to cede command of the rock. The arrival of one of the best shooters in the league will also create more space for the big man to operate, making it less likely that his possessions end in the hands of an opponent.

Embiid will still try some unnecessary flashy passes and make some wrong reads from time to time. However, his playmaking far exceeded his turnover proneness in his first season under Nurse. That trend should continue with more reliable options around him.

3. Joel Embiid makes* All-Defensive Second Team

*If he plays enough games to qualify

This prediction from last season is getting carried over because the chances of Embiid having a season worthy of being All-Defensive-Team caliber should be higher. Having another star to rely on for running the offense means Embiid can exert more energy on defense, when he can be as good as any defender in the NBA on his best night.

Of course, since he’s going to save his best nights for April and beyond, he won't be in serious contention for a First-Team spot. Given his increased focus on long-term health, Embiid may not try as many risky blocks or other haphazard attempts to stop the opposing offense.

But even if he plays it carefully and makes a few more business decisions, he’ll still be one of the most daunting rim protectors in the game. In 2023-24, he blocked 1.7 shots per game, recorded a career-best 1.2 steals per game and scared opponents into taking fewer shots at the rim.

Embiid doesn't have enough reputational oomph to make it to the First Team unless he has an otherworldly defensive season. Two of those spots are almost certain to be claimed by Victor Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert. Bam Adebayo, Herb Jones, Jaren Jackson Jr., Alex Caruso and many more are all super strong contenders. Voters will feel confident leaning toward any of them for a spot — and for good reason, as they're all stellar defenders in their own ways.

Still, Embiid is a dominant defender who has made All-Defensive Second Teams before and, now that he has ample help on offense, should contend for a spot again.

The post 3 Joel Embiid bold predictions for 76ers’ 2024-25 NBA season appeared first on ClutchPoints.