1 76ers player who must stand out in training camp to keep starting job

09/23/2024 01:46 PM

The Philadelphia 76ers have arguably the best trio in the NBA with Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and Paul George. A trifecta of stars is obviously nice to have but how much does that truly matter? In a game of five-player lineups, the Sixers can't rest on their All-Star laurels.

Sure, the fourth and fifth starters don't need to carry as much weight as they might on another team because of those stars. But the Sixers aren't gunning to be a run-of-the-mill squad. The supporting cast members must do more than just carry their own weight for the 76ers to reach the heights they strive for.

The 76ers made sure to invest in the supporting cast as best as they could with three max contracts on their books, dishing out a handful of manageable contracts to players that can contribute now and be flipped later if needed. Kelly Oubre Jr. is among this group, slated for a starting role but signed to a contract worth $8 million per year.

Oubre performed better than expected in his first season with the Sixers and is thrilled to be back in town. But the expectations will be raised in his second go-around now that he has some familiarity with the team and didn't have to wait until one of the last weeks of the offseason to sign his contract. Although he’s very likely to have a rotation spot this season, it may not be in the team’s best interest to automatically assign him a starting spot.

Kelly Oubre Jr. works better as bench option for 76ers

According to Cleaning the Glass, in lineups where Embiid and Oubre played together in the 2023-24 season, the Sixers had a +1.6 net rating. But in lineups with Embiid on the court and Oubre off, the Sixers’ net rating shot up to +15.5. Both lineups have sample sizes of over 1,200 possessions.

The story is similar with Maxey. When he played with Oubre, the Sixers’ net rating was +1.0. When he wasn't with Oubre, the team’s net rating was +9.4. Cleaning the Glass, Basketball Reference and NBA Stats all show in their respective calculations for net rating that, compared to any other player who had a prominent role, the Sixers were significantly less effective in Oubre’s minutes.

Part of those disparities is the starting lineup of Maxey, De’Anthony Melton, Nico Batum, Tobias Harris and Embiid, which kicked the snot out of teams during the softest part of the 76ers’ schedule. It was the lineup Embiid and Maxey each played with the most last season and one that Oubre didn't have a chance to be a part of. He missed a chunk of this portion of the season after getting struck by a car and returned to action in a bench role.

Nonetheless, that drop-off in efficiency is worryingly steep. Oubre can be a part of the 76ers rotation because he can cut, drive, defend and provide energy but he is better cut out for a role off the bench than as a mainstay of the starting or closing lineups.

Bringing Oubre off the bench almost certainly means going to a smaller lineup, though. Kyle Lowry, who started for the Sixers once he joined the squad midseason, is the most likely option to take his spot, though there’s also spot-up shooting specialist Eric Gordon. Both guards are strong outside shooters but are also nearing the end of their careers. The options outside of Oubre aren't ideal, so he may remain in the starting five. And the Sixers will still be very good — just not as good as they could be.

Oubre’s defense was helpful for the Sixers last season but he was in an overextended role as the primary perimeter stopper. Most notably, Jalen Brunson carved him up in the playoffs, easily getting separation and often shooting and driving uncontested. Even with the acknowledgment of what a colossal responsibility that was, Oubre left plenty to be desired. He frequently had to bite off more than he could chew, a failure that the front office and coaching staff also share responsibility for.

With Caleb Martin helping out at the point of attack and Paul George providing defense on the wing, Oubre’s defensive workload should be more manageable. He probably won't have to spend nearly as much time as the sole defender of the opposing perimeter star. Even if he makes major strides on defense, the most important complementary offensive skill for a role player is an even bigger work in progress.

Oubre has to be a better shooter

To lock down a prominent role, Oubre has to be an efficient shooter this season. The respective Sixers stints of Harris, Ben Simmons and Matisse Thybulle were characterized (at least in part) by a reluctance to shoot, which made Oubre’s willingness to shoot a refreshing change of pace. But it also covered up his inefficiency as a three-point shooter.

Last season, Oubre shot 31.1 percent from deep. Out of 243 players who attempted at least 2.0 three-pointers per game and appeared in at least half of the season, 225 of them had a better three-point percentage than Oubre. He had his games where he would go 5-6 or 6-9 from deep but more often — in 40 of his 68 games, to be exact — he would make zero or one triple on a handful of attempts.

Martin is not an elite three-point marksman but has shot right below or above the league-average three-point percentage in each of the last three seasons. In 45 career playoff games, he has shot 40.1 percent from deep. Because he can hold up better on defense and has a better history as a shooter, the first change in the fully healthy starting lineup should involve Oubre.

Even if Oubre starts, the 76ers will have a very good starting five. He’s a tough-nosed, athletic wing who will take advantage of the space created by his star teammates. However, because the stars will make Oubre’s life easier too often than the other way around, the Sixers’ top gear will remain locked until they either swing a trade or get a better version of K-9. Oubre can secure his place in the starting five by improving his three-point shooting and sharpening up his defense.

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