Holland Vs. Nelson Odds, Full Fight Preview & Prediction
03/20/2025 09:00 AM
Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Welterweight standouts Kevin Holland vs. Gunnar Nelson will go to war this weekend (Sat., March 22, 2025) inside The 02 Arena in London, England at UFC London.
Holland's back is finally to the wall. The popular "Big Mouth" has bounced between weight classes and into random fight bookings for years, but Holland has now lost four of his last five. It's time for "Trailblazer" to get serious, and a return to Welterweight seems to signify that intention to some degree.
As for Nelson, he could do with a bit of Holland's activity. The Icelandic standout has actually won two in a row, but he's only fought twice in the last five years. Now 36 years of age, it's hard not to assume Nelson spent a considerable portion of his prime on the sidelines.
Let's take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
Holland vs. Nelson Betting Odds
- Kevin Holland victory: +105
- Kevin Holland via TKO/KO/DQ: +260
- Kevin Holland via submission: +1300
- Kevin Holland via decision: +425
- Gunnar Nelson victory: -135
- Gunnar Nelson via TKO/KO/DQ: +900
- Gunnar Nelson via submission: +220
- Gunnar Nelson via decision: +300
- Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
How Holland Wins
Holland is a frustrating fighter. The man won five in a row at 185-pounds in Middleweight with a slew of gnarly knockout wins, and now he can't win a fight in two separate divisions? Gifted with ridiculous knockout power and an iron jaw, it feels like Holland should be able to do more with his career.
At 32 years of age, hope is not lost yet. Back at 170 pounds, it wasn't that long ago that he took Jack Della Maddalena — who fights for the world title in two months! — to a split decision. He's hard to take down in this class, and his lanky 1-2 tends to hurt anyone it touches.
The key against Nelson will be range. Nelson is really quite good at convincing opponents to reach for him then ducking right under their punches into his takedown entries. He fights with a similar style of movement to other karateka like Stephen Thompson and Michael Page, who both gave Holland a ton of trouble.
The answer is to feint more often and build combinations. I'd like to see Holland working behind body jabs and double jabs, strikes intended to get a read on where Nelson's head is going before he tries to time that right. Another Holland strategy that could work is firing punches with the intent of grabbing a collar tie than elbowing Nelson into a bloody mess.
How Nelson Wins
Nelson is a really cool fighter, plain and simple. Historically undersized for the division, Nelson is still able to drop fighters with a rare consistency, using his in-and-out movement to time big connections and takedowns alike. Once on the floor, Nelson is a masterful grappler and excellent at wrapping up the submission finish.
I don't think Nelson wins this fight solely on the feet. Even if Nelson is getting the better of exchanges, Holland is too powerful and durable. 15 minutes of trading will be Nelson hurt at some point, so getting this bout to the ground is essential.
Fortunately, Holland is an aggressive fighter who tends to really commit to his right hand. If Nelson is evasive, he can draw Holland forward and convince him to swing, particularly if Nelson is able to stab with him a straight shot or two. Get Holland swinging and the takedown should open up, leading the fight into Nelson's world.
Holland vs. Nelson Prediction
There are a lot of X-Factors in this match up that make it hard to predict.
Is Holland focused and motivated back at 170 pounds? What about Nelson, how's he going to perform after a two year layoff? Since 2019, we've only seen him pummel mediocre talent or get dominated by the cream of the crop, so it's hard to say what he'll look like against somebody more in the middle.
Assuming both of them show up reasonably ready to scrap it out, it's hard not to look at Holland's recent losses to "Wonderboy," "MVP" and Reinier de Ridder. Nelson has a similar striking style to the first two and the grappling expertise of the latter, so it stands to reason that he can find success wherever the fight goes.
I'm not at all confident he doesn't randomly get chinned in the process, but ...
Prediction: Nelson via submission
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