The Audible: Are the Dodgers really going after Juan Soto? Is it a good idea?

11/07/2024 06:29 PM

Jim Alexander: OK, the Dodgers have been World Series champions for what, a week? Too soon to start second-guessing their off-season work?

Not at all. The word Wednesday that Mookie Betts is going back to the infield in 2025, as disseminated by general manager Brandon Gomes at the general managers' meetings, is … well, sort of strange. Why tip your hand or commit yourself this early? It seems to be a declaration to the rest of baseball that the Dodgers plan to make a play for free agent Juan Soto. Whether this will be a serious pursuit or just kicking the tires remains to be seen.

For one thing, do they really need Soto, especially at the price that his agent, Scott Boras, will be seeking? This will be at least a $600 million deal, likely more, and there will be no discounts and no thought of the type of deferred money that Shohei Ohtani accepted last winter to become a Dodger.

The talent is unmistakable, of course, and Soto did distinguish himself in the postseason this year as the No. 2 hitter in the Yankees' batting order: .327 batting average, .469 on-base percentage, 1.101 OPS, four homers and nine RBI through three series, .313, .522 on-base percentage and 1.084 OPS in five World Series games. Layer that on top of a .989 OPS, 41 homers and 109 RBI in the regular season.

The counterargument: Signing Soto likely means Teoscar Hernández goes elsewhere. And while you can make the case that one set of stats is far superior to the other, Hernández had a positive effect on clubhouse chemistry that can't be discounted. Members of the analytics community may think that doesn't matter, but people who have spent any amount of time in a baseball clubhouse would likely tell you it does matter, a lot.

And another factor: Would you rather spend all that money on one player or use it to improve two or three positions?

What's your take, Mirjam?

Mirjam Swanson: Soto is going to stay in New York, I suspect. But just the possibility of him joining the Dodgers is a good play to get as much as he can from the Yankees. I mean, the guy is open to using every ounce of leverage at his disposal: "I’ll be open to listen to every single team." All of them!

Whether the Dodgers will really try to pry him away, though? The Mookie Betts proclamation seems to indicate they could. But should they?

No!

I mean, they just won the World Series. They didn't lose it. They should be tinkering, not reinventing. And adding Soto's astronomical contract will curtail their roster-building flexibility going forward, when what they need is front-line starting pitching and not another incredible bat.

But we trust the Dodgers' braintrust will do the right thing, don't we?

Know who we don't trust?

Lincoln Riley.

Jim: You know who else doesn't trust Lincoln Riley to do the right thing? Larger and larger segments of USC's fan base every week.

I think it's become apparent that Riley's comfortable (and lucrative) landing here was thanks to five superstar quarterbacks who went on to start in the NFL: Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts, Spencer Rattler and Caleb Williams, who replaced Rattler at Oklahoma and followed Riley to USC.

And the sticking point? All of that quarterback talent, and Lincoln's teams are 2-4 in bowl games and have never come close to playing for a national championship. You could say that Williams' sophomore season, and his and Riley's first at USC in 2022, was as close as they've come, and you can also say that Williams hurting his hamstring in the Pac-12 championship game against Utah kept them out of the four-team playoff. But you can also make the case that they would have found a way to screw it up anyway, especially against a well-coached Utah team.

The honeymoon is over, obviously. And while Riley will occasionally give you the "it's on me" spiel, more often he tends to be very good at pointing fingers. This year, with a 4-5 record and the increasing chance that USC will not be bowl eligible, it's a particularly bad look – especially as richly as Riley has been compensated the last three seasons.

Deciding to close the previously open periods of practice to the media is a small thing, but it's a sign of paranoia – and, naturally, he wouldn't come right out and admit what everyone else has already figured out. That’s been a theme with Riley, who way too often asks the media and public to believe what he says rather than their own lyin’ eyes.

And the quarterback change this week, from Miller Moss to Jayden Maiava, could be justified by Moss' seven interceptions in the last five games, including three last week at Washington. It could also be construed as throwing in the towel, letting the sophomore Maiava play to make sure he stays after this season, or … does the word "panic" apply here?

Put it this way: Pete Carroll is back on campus to teach a class. You think some alumni aren't ready to bring him back to the USC sideline, even at the age of 73?

Mirjam: That would be quite the plot twist, but I think that's but a dream for now.

Riley – the quarterback whisperer – finally succumbed to mounting pressure to switch his starting QB this season, replacing Moss with UNLV transfer Maiava. It is, as our Luca Evans wrote, a signal that Riley believes it might be too late to change USC's present, but is getting Maiava reps to prep him for the future.

It's also a signal of how wrong things have gone this season. And that Riley might have been wrong in sticking with Moss this long. Or at least it could look that way if Maiava performs well – a Catch-22 for the Trojans' coach whose team hasn't come close to fulfilling its potential and whose team's fans are so egregiously annoyed.

The future is murky for USC at this point, regardless of who's playing quarterback for Riley.

The expectations, meanwhile, were not quite so high for the Lakers under unproven first-time Coach JJ Redick, but they're also stubbing their toes and they find their way early this season.

Where do you think that team is going?

Jim: Honestly, right now it feels like business as usual, and that's not good. Anthony Davis is hurting again, and Wednesday night's game in Memphis seemed awfully familiar: AD on the sideline, LeBron James asked to carry a disproportionate share of the load (though 39 points at age 39 is rather poetic, I guess), and the rest of the roster underachieving. (Acting, essentially, like a group whose ceiling is the play-in round.)

I was impressed that JJ Redick didn't hesitate to call them out. Among the excerpts: "It goes back to choices. It's something we've discussed as a group and you have a choice every night for how you play, it has nothing to do with making shots. There's got to be a group of people, seven to eight guys, that make that choice and (then) we're a really good basketball team. (When) we got a handful, two or three, we're not going to be a good basketball team that night, that's just the reality.

"That's my biggest takeaway, to be honest."

This could be the first test to determine if Redick indeed has the chops to be a successful NBA head coach. Maybe those words, and some pointed remarks regarding D'Angelo Russell's effort level at the same postgame microphone, will get his players' attention, but he'll need to follow it up on the practice floor. Let's see what the effort level is the next time they play, tomorrow night at home against Philadelphia.

It is way too early to write 'em off. But dreary nights like that are an indictment of not only players' effort and performance but also of the front office decisions that brought this group together.

(Oh, by the way: Bronny James will make his G-League debut Saturday.)

Mirjam: Yeah, this is where Year 1 of JJ is going to be fascinating.

He obviously knows his hoops. We heard it on his podcasts and broadcasts and now in his media availabilities as the Lakers' head coach. But minding the game and having the skills to make the pieces move like you want them to, that's the real magic. That's coaching.

And, as I imagine Redick knows better than I do, it's a fine line he's walking with NBA players, who are under enormous pressure to perform, who are hooping with such high stakes and who are, therefore, understandably sensitive to any deviations or slights, perceived or otherwise.

Of course, Redick clearly has LeBron's buy-in – 39 at 39, definitely poetic, love it! – so that's most of the battle. So that'll help you get seven or eight guys to come along. Well, so long as two or three of those dudes aren't dinged up.

Jim: Or aren't too comfortable. That's part of a coach's job, too. And if JJ really is the next Pat Riley, this is where it needs to start.