History of teams leading 3-1 in a best-of-7 series
Today at 10:06 AM
LA holds a tremendous advantage in the NLCS, and have up to three chances to win the one game they need to clinch the National League pennant.
The Dodgers lead the Mets in the National League Championship Series three games to one, after winning the firsttwo games at Citi Field in New York. Los Angeles has up to three chances to win the one game needed to win the pennant and advance to a fourth World Series in eight years.
Being up three games to one in a best-of-7 series is the second-biggest advantage a team can have, an enviable power position for the leading team no matter how much the stomach-twisting grind of October baseball might make one feel otherwise.
League Championship Series have been around since 1969, but the first 16 seasons of that new extra round, necessitated by divisional play, was a best-of-5 affair. In 1985, this round switched to best-of-7, matching the World Series in length. Teams leading these series three games to one have a massive upper hand.
Teams that lead the LCS three games to one have won 37 of 45 series (82.2 percent).
Counting the World Series, MLB teams that lead any best-of-7 series three games to one have won 79 of 93 series (84.9 percent).
Six other teams down 3-1 tied the series, only to lose Game 7. In other words, the team up three games to one closed out the series within six games 78.5 percent of the time.
The Dodgers were the last MLB team to buck this trend, overcoming a 3-1 deficit during the 2020 NLCS, winning the finalthree games in a rowover the Braves to reach the World Series. If they can beat the Mets one more time in this series, this will be the Dodgers' first trip back to the Fall Classic since.
In the best-of-7 era (since 1985), the Dodgers have only lead an NLCS three games to one one other time. That was in 2017 against the Cubs, when LA won the first three games of that series, lost Game 4 at Wrigley Field, and then romped in Game 5 on the strength of Kiké Hernández hitting three home runs.
He's still thriving in October, by the way.
In the World Series, the Dodgers led three games to one twice. In 1959, just their second year in Los Angeles, the Dodgers had a chance to close out the White Sox at home at the Los Angeles Coliseum but lost 1-0. A 23-year-old Sandy Koufax took the tough-luck loss. Two days later, the Dodgers closed things out at Comiskey Park in Chicago in Game 6.
In 1988, the Dodgers got home runs by Mickey Hatcher and Mike Davis to back Orel Hershiser completing one of the greatest two-month runs by any pitcher to close out the A's in Game 5.
The 2024 Dodgers need to win one more game to win the pennant. Their first chance at doing so comes Friday afternoon in Game 5 against the Mets.
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