Dodgers task is simple: Win series vs. Padres, clinch NL West at home
09/23/2024 05:39 PM
A look at the National League West showdown between the first-place Dodgers and second-place Padres, in a matchup San Diego has won 7 out of 10 times this season.
LOS ANGELES — The Dodgers have a three-game lead in the National League West with six to play. They can clinch the division at home, and all they have to do is accomplish something they haven't yet done in 2024: beat the Padres in a series.
With a magic number of four to clinch the NL West, two wins over the Padres would accomplish that, and also give the Dodgers their first division clinching in front of fans at Dodger Stadium since 2018.
But so far this season, the Dodgers have lost seven out of 10 games against their division rivals.
"It's pretty easy to see that when we've played them — I think 10 times this year — they came out with more intensity than we did, and it's got to change," manager Dave Roberts said Sunday. "I expect it to change. Playing those guys in certainly very, very meaningful games will bring out the best in us."
The two teams split their season-opening series in South Korea, but the Padres have won the other three series since, winning two out of three in both San Diego and Los Angeles, and sweeping a two-gamer at the end of July in San Diego.
The Padres have scored first in seven of 10 games against the Dodgers this year, and San Diego has outscored LA 53-43 in their matchups. Each team put up a five-run first against the other this year, including the Padres rudely greeting Yoshinobu Yamamoto to the majors on March 21 in an eventual 15-11 win in Seoul. The Dodgers scored five runs in the first inning on July 30, but never scored again and lost 6-5.
Padres starting pitchers have been a little bit better than the Dodgers in their first 10 meetings, but not decidedly so. San Diego's bullpen has a 3.46 ERA against LA, compared to Dodgers relievers having a 4.73 ERA against the Padres.
But the big difference in these two teams during their games this year has been with runners in scoring position. The Dodgers have actually batted more times with runners in scoring position (115 plate appearances) than the Padres (106 PA), but San Diego is hitting .314/.410/.465 with a 143 wRC+ in those situations compared to only .174/.278/.272 and 46 wRC+ for the Dodgers.
That's a recipe for losing seven out of 10, and something the Dodgers would like to change this week.
"The chaser always seems like they have a little more incentive. I think that's part of it," Roberts said. "But with the talent being equal, there's no reason why our fight, our intensity, focus should match or best theirs."
