Dodgers Preview: The Dodgers host the Padres for the final three games on this homestand with the magic number to win the NL West at four

09/24/2024 08:03 AM

It all comes down to this…kind of. The Los Angeles Dodgers have now entered their final week of play of the 2024 Major League Baseball regular season and close out their final homestand with a consequential three-game series that could make or break their chances at another National League West division title with the San Diego Padres at Chavez Ravine.

The Dodgers enter this three-game series with a three-game lead over the Padres. Their magic number to clinch their eleventh division title in twelve years now sits at just four games, meaning that if the Dodgers win two games over the course of three days, they will win the West.

However, this is a challenge the Dodgers are ready to face head-on. Despite their struggles against the Friars, winning only three of their ten meetings this season and amid a three-game losing streak against San Diego, the Dodgers are determined to turn the tide in this crucial series.

In those previous ten meetings, the Dodgers’ offense has struggled, hitting to a combined slash line of .198/.292/.310 with a .602 OPS and scoring only forty-three runs with sixty-seven hits.

On the other hand, the Padres have been a force to be reckoned with. Their offense has been electric against the Dodgers’ pitching staff, scoring fifty-three runs on eighty-six hits, twenty-nine extra-base hits, a .254/.336/.426 slash line and a .762 OPS.

To make matters more complicated, the Padres have already won the 2024 regular season tiebreaker, so if the Dodgers and Padres happen to tie by the end of the season, San Diego would win the National League West.

The Padres are also coming into this game as the hottest team since the all-star break, having won forty-seven of their fifty-seven games (.702), the best winning percentage in that span.

The Friars are also coming off a dominant stretch of games, winning eight of their last ten, including sweeping the San Francisco Giants, taking two of three against the Houston Astros, and most recently, sweeping the Chicago White Sox, handing them their major league-worst 120th loss, of the season.

Due to their second-half play, the Dodgers’ once-season-high nine-game lead on June 20th has now been reduced to just three games. The Padres’ chances at their first division title in eighteen years are entirely in their hands coming into this series.

It has been an excellent first year for new Padres manager Mike Shildt, who has given the Padres their first ninety-win season since 2010, only the fifth time in franchise history that they have reached that mark.

As of today, the Padres’ magic number to clinch their first postseason berth since the 2022 season is one game, but their players and fans have their eyes on a potential division title.

However, despite all that, the Dodgers have not been a slouch in the second half of the season either and have played respectable baseball over the last few weeks, specifically their offense, which has carried them most of the summer with all the injuries to the starting rotation.

Like San Diego, the Dodgers have also had one of the best records in Major League Baseball since the all-star break, winning thirty-seven of their fifty-nine games (.627), which is third in that span, just under the Arizona Diamondbacks (.644).

Despite the Dodgers’ starting rotation’s ERA of 6.52 over their last twelve games, the Dodgers have won six of their last ten, including a series split with the Atlanta Braves and back-to-back series wins over the last-place Colorado Rockies and Miami Marlins.

A massive reason for that success has been the National League Most Valuable Player Award frontrunner Shohei Ohtani, who over his last four games has hit an ungodly .778 (14-for-18) with five home runs, thirteen RBIs, and thirty-one total bases in that span, which was also capped off with a game-tying home run in the bottom of the ninth inning on Sunday's game against the Colorado Rockies, earning him National League Player of the Week.

However, the Dodgers offense will have a massive test this series, going up against the three best starters in the Padres rotation: King, Cease, and Musgrove. They have a combined 0.70 ERA in their last two turns in the rotation, which is a huge difference compared to what the Marlins and Rockies were throwing out there.

The Dodgers hope to ride the momentum of Sunday’s thrilling come-from-behind victory in a series that will have a postseason atmosphere in September as the Dodgers try and close out the Padres for their final meeting of the regular season in what might be a National League Divsion Series preview.

Pitching match-ups 

Game One:Landon Knack (3-4, 3.39 ERA) vs Michael King (12-9, 3.04 ERA)

Game Two:Jack Flaherty (13-7, 3.10 ERA) vs Dylan Cease (14-11, 3.42 ERA)

Game Three:Walker Buehler (1-6, 5.63 ERA) vs Joe Musgrove (6-5, 3.95 ERA)

Game Times

Game One: 7:10 PM PT, SNLA, San Diego Padres TV, TBS (out-of-market only)

Game Two: 7:10 PM PT, SNLA, San Diego Padres TV, MLB Network (out-of-market only)

Game Three: 7:10 PM PT, SNLA, San Diego Padres TV

Who's in & who's out?

Entering this pivotal series, the Los Angeles Dodgers will be without two of their best arms in the starting rotation. Right-handed pitchers Tyler Glasnow and Gavin Stone have been on the injured list with potential season-ending injuries.

Glasnow’s season is officially over, as the righty was transferred to the 60-day injured list last week to add right-handed pitcher Zach Logue to the 40-man roster. Glasnow was ramping up to facing live hitters during the four-game series with the Atlanta Braves but was shut down due to elbow discomfort.

An MRI revealed that Glasnow had suffered a right elbow sprain, which will set him back weeks/months, end his 2024 season, and make him unavailable for the postseason.

Stone, 25, was one of the best rookie pitchers this year and led the Dodgers in games started and innings pitched was shut down due to shoulder inflammation after his start against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

While not on the injured list, the Dodgers opted not to push Yoshinobu Yamamoto‘s start back, leaving him out for the entire three-game series as the Dodgers have him on a six-day schedule, which would give him one more start in the regular season and line him up for a start in the National League Division Series.

According to manager Dave Roberts, Dodgers third baseman Max Muncy was a late scratch from Sunday’s series finale against the Colorado Rockies due to general body soreness but is expected to be a full participant for the next three games.

Dodgers left-handed relief pitcher Anthony Banda is expected to rejoin the Dodgers potentially in the final series of the regular season at Coors Field in Denver. Still, if not, they will be ready by the postseason if all goes well over the next few days.

Veteran left-handed pitcher Clayton Kershaw‘s return this regular season is in doubt as the lefty has yet to face live hitters but has thrown multiple bullpens since his placement on the 15-day injured list due to a left bone spur in his toe.

Dodgers veteran backup catcher Austin Barnes will remain on the 10-day injured list after fracturing his toe on a foul ball on September 15th. However, according to Dave Roberts, the club is hopeful he will be ready by the postseason. In the meantime, rookie catcher Hunter Feduccia will remain on the 26-man roster, but this series, Will Smith is expected to start all three games.

Right-handed pitcher Tony Gonsolin finished off his third and likely final rehab start, tossing three scoreless innings while striking out six hitters on forty-five pitches. The next step before activation is to see how Gonsolin feels after his next bullpen session, and he could make one final start with the Dodgers in Colorado.

As for the San Diego Padres they have selected the contract of veteran shortstop Nick Ahmed and placed backup shortstop Mason McCoy on the 10-day injured due to back inflammation. This is the third National League West team this season for Ahmed posting a .571 OPS in sixty-nine games with the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers before being DFA’d by both clubs.

The Padres are also without shortstop Ha-Seong Kim who has been sidelined since mid-August with right shoulder inflammation. In Kim’s absence Xander Bogaerts has reverted back to the team’s everyday shortstop having signed a massive 11-year $280 million contract with the Padres last offseason.

Unfortunately for the Padres Kim hasn’t been able to ramp up his throwing without feeling discomfort and it remains unclear if Kim will be able to return by the end of the regular season.

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