Dodgers keep adding strikeout pitchers

01/27/2025 02:03 PM

A six-year streak atop MLB in run prevention fell off the last two years in LA. But with several pitching additions this offseason, expect more strikeouts and fewer runs allowed in 2025

The Dodgers have been quite busy this offseason, adding players and spending money at a rate that has garnered quite the reaction. They've amassed so many pitchers that we even delved into a potential roster crunch among said group.

Tanner Scott was the latest addition, introduced last Thursday after signing a four-year, $72 million contract to join the back end of the bullpen. The left-hander also fit a pattern among various Dodgers additions this offseason.

Scott ranked 20th in MLB with a 31.3-percent strikeout rate over the last two seasons, among pitchers with at least 100 innings over 2023-24 combined. Among the arms ahead of him on that list are Tyler Glasnow (10th, 32.8 percent), Blake Snell (12th, 32.7 percent), Alex Vesia (17th, 31.5 percent), and Shohei Ohtani (18th, 31.5 percent). Snell, Scott, and Ohtani are new additions to the Dodgers pitching staff this year, but they aren't alone.

Kirby Yates hasn't yet officially signed, but he's expected to, and he had a a 33.6-percent strikeout rate over the last two years that ranked fifth in MLB. That's six pitchers among the top 20 strikeout rates in 2023-24 all (potentially) on the Dodgers, with four of them newcomers to the mound in Los Angeles.

The Dodgers need it, as they've lost their way as a staff the last two seasons, in both missing bats and allowing runs. As a staff, the Dodgers struck out 23 percent of batters faced in 2024, ranking 12th in MLB. They were 15th in 2023 with a 23.1-percent strikeout rate.

Ranking in the top half of MLB in strikeout rate is still better than most, but not compared to being in the top five in six of the previous seven seasons. Similar, the Dodgers ranked first or second in the majors in fewest runs allowed before falling to 10th and 13th the last two years.

Even during their bullpen-heavy run through October to a championship, the Dodgers as a team struck out only 19.9 percent of batters faced. In total, Blake Treinen — a reliever — led the team in the postseason with 18 strikeouts.

The Dodgers rotation has taken the biggest hit over the last two seasons, decimated by injuries, including 11 starting pitchers on the injured list in 2024. The rotation ranked 19th and 20th in ERA the last two years, and ranked 22nd and 23rd in FIP, thanks in part to strikeout rates with similar rankings and lower than the team as a whole.

The rotation already has Glasnow (3.49 ERA, 2.65 xERA, 32.2-percent strikeout rate in 2024) and Yamamoto (3.00 ERA, 3.44 xERA, 28.5-percent strikeout rate) returning atop the rotation, and they not only added Snell and will get Ohtani back on the mound in 2025, but also brought aboard the highly-coveted Roki Sasaki. And that's before considering potential contributions from Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May, both returning from injuries, and others.

Steamer projections at FanGraphs tab Sasaki to post a 3.30 ERA, 3.21 FIP, and a 31.6-percent strikeout rate, the latter the 12th-best projection in MLB. Other Dodgers rotation members projected by Steamer:

• Snell: 3.51 ERA, 3.53 FIP, 31-percent strikeout rate
• Glasnow: 3.22 ERA, 3.07 FIP, 30.7-percent strikeout rate

Sarah Langs of MLB.com noted over the weekend that no major league team has ever had three pitchers with a 30-percent strikeout rate with at least 75 innings.

Ohtani, who has a 31.2-percent career strikeout rate, including higher than that in both 2022 and 2023 with the Angels, is projected for a 28.3-percent strikeout rate by Steamer, along with a 3.48 ERA and 3.53 FIP.

Yamamoto is projected for a 25.5-percent strikeout rate (along with a 3.57 ERA and 3.54 FIP), which would be a decline from last year but also higher than the starting pitcher used by the Dodgers in 112 of their 162 games in 2024 (everyone but Glasnow, Yamamoto, and Jack Flaherty).

What the Dodgers are trying to do this year is add as many pitchers as possible, trying to stockpile enough depth to withstand inevitable injuries. But aside from quantity, the innings they are potentially adding are high quality as well. Expect the strikeouts to go back up and the Dodgers to be among the best in the league at run prevention again in 2025.