Different Walker Buehler, same level of success

10/29/2024 08:01 AM

For the first time this season, Buehler's fastball didn't let him down

Mystique is a common word in discussions of postseason success, and it's pretty easy to scoff at it. At the end of the day, that bit of room for the unexpected to happen makes this game great in many ways.

Regardless of how the top of the rotation for both sides did during the first two games of the World Series, the Dodgers went to Yankee Stadium with some vulnerability on that front. Walker Buehler did well against the Mets, but you usually don't take one game over the sample of an entire season's disappointment.

All of that was promptly swept away Monday as Buehler absolutely shoved against what looked like a defeated Yankees team.

Writing up a preview of what to expect from Buehler in this Game 3 for Pinstripe Alley, I discussed his success against the Mets staying away from the zone (zone rate of 38 percent) and from his fastball (used it 27 percent of the time), and how it created a rather poor matchup against a patient Yankee team. There was only so much confidence to take away from that NLCS outing.

The Dodgers starter found success again and tossed what was his third superb World Series outing in three tries. Buehler took a completely different route to get there relative to his other 2024 starts, relying on his fastball like he hasn't in years and pounded the zone en route to five scoreless frames.

Before diving into Buehler, it's important to point out the current context of the Yankees offense. Yoshinobu Yamamoto held his own across his two previous postseason outings, but Jack Flaherty and Buehler were very hit-or-miss during this playoff run, each with their fair share of struggles. We can sit here and discuss the Dodgers starting pitching success in its own right and that's fair, but this is the same three-pitcher rotation that had a 6.14 ERA in the first two rounds combined.

In the first inning of Game 3 alone, Buehler had the same number of four-seam whiffs against the Yankees (three) as he had in his entire outing versus the Mets. This wasn't the Yankees pressing and trying to hit balls outside the zone either; it was them flat-out not catching up to some poorly located heaters. In the three four-seam whiffs during the first, two came on pretty middle-middle pitches to Gleyber Torres and Aaron Judge — the latter whose massive struggles likely represent the single most impactful development of this World Series. The one to Stanton was on the inside corner, but after what we saw him do to Flaherty, he could've easily deposited that in the seats.

Getting out of that first with no runs after the Dodgers scored early, and doing so with a high fastball usage gave Buehler the confidence a pitcher gets by working with the lead. Apart from a little dicey fourth inning that was stopped by a Teoscar Hernández outfield assist, it was smooth sailing from there.

A starter with 29-percent four-seamer usage in the regular season and 27 percent versus the Mets, Buehler upped that number to 45 percent in Game 3 of the World Series and he filled the zone while doing it.

• FF zone rate versus the Mets = 38 percent
• FF zone rate versus the Yankees = 68 percent

In the regular year, Buehler mostly tried to lean on the heater, it got hit a mile, but this time around against a struggling offense and pitching in cold weather which he apparently loves, the story was different.

All of that swing-and-miss action he generated with knuckle curves and sweepers facing the Mets wasn't really there tonight. Almost shockingly, what carried the load for Buehler was his fastball usage, outside of one key player.

Maybe you noticed earlier that when discussing those first-inning whiffs: the name Juan Soto didn't come up. That's because he didn't see a single four-seam fastball from Buehler, and it wasn't for a lack of pitches.

The Dodgers' starter went with three knuckle curves and a changeup to induce a fly out on a low cutter on the outside part of the plate. Soto was more aggressive on the second at-bat and swung at a hanging knuckle curve in the second pitch of that at-bat but didn't do any damage, grounding out. Whatever you want to say about two at-bats and seven pitches, it is not a coincidence that the Yankees' current best hitter didn't see a heater. The leverage of those two at-bats was pretty big as in both times Soto hit with a man on following a Gleyber Torres walk.

The Dodgers offense once again did enough but it didn't do that much, and perhaps with just a little bit from Soto in those two plate appearances, maybe this is a different game.

Questions about what to expect in the future from pending free agent Buehler are sure to come, but for now no one cares. This homegrown talent overcame it all to yet again show up when the Dodgers needed him the most, and in doing that, he has LA one win away from winning it all.