Analyzing the most used Knicks' lineups through 10 games
Yesterday at 04:00 PM
10 down, 72 to go.
Feels like the Knicks have been trading triumphant wins over Eastern Conference rivals (Indiana, Miami, Milwaukee, Philadelphia) with bone-crushing fourth-quarter collapses against teams they should beat (Houston, Atlanta, most recent Indiana game). That's how you get to a tumultuous 5-5, baby!
A lot has been discussed (usually after the losses) about the heavy minutes for the starters. That was, unfortunately, necessary due to the bench injuries. Tyler Kolek and Pacome Dadiet might've had cases for more minutes, but if the starters couldn't get a lead, how would the deep bench fare?
Despite the heavy minutes, we've seen a handful of different lineup combos when one or two guys head to the bench. What do these combinations look like with guys like Deuce, Cam Payne, or Jericho Sims mixed in?
The Starters
The Knicks' starting five is the most used lineup in the NBA, with 178 minutes played. You're shocked, I know.
Setting the minimum to qualify at 75 minutes, it is the third-best offensive lineup in the NBA with a 120.3 offensive rating. That's really good! They're only behind the electric starting fives of Denver and Boston. They rank high in everything, from the assist-to-turnover ratio to OREB%.
Defensively? Oof.
Behind the Heat's starting lineup, its' 120.4 defensive rating is the second worst in basketball. This lineup, specifically, gets snowed in against five-out offenses and especially struggles in the fourth quarter, with a dreadful 147.5 defensive rating in the fourth. Is that fatigue? It must be. Thibs re-extended the rotation to nine last night, and the starters clamped up the remnants of the Sixers.
There are two concerns with this lineup. A lack of rim protection and late-game execution. KAT is not a great rim protector, but his restricted area stats are misleading. If a player jumps into the restricted area, it doesn't count. Usually, if your feet are in the restricted area offensively, you are open. It's too shallow to make most contested shots. He's still pretty dreadful there, which is something to watch. He did a great job guarding Embiid last night, though.
Late-game execution killed the Knicks in the Atlanta, Houston, and Cleveland defeats. Whether it's Brunson's hero ball or not getting touches for the secondary scorers, the offense becomes stagnant and way too iso-heavy. It can work, but if Brunson has an off-night, you don't want him taking all the shots late.
The Others (Good)
The Knicks haven't used another lineup for more than 30 minutes. When you use one lineup, a league-high 37% of the time, this is to be expected. Because of this, we are in a small sample size territory.
The best of these secondary lineups has Bridges on the bench for Deuce McBride. While the offensive rating stays around the same (116.7), the defensive rating is an outstanding 89.5. These lineups are a bit small, so it is likely being used against small lineups. Deuce is a defensive menace and better equipped than Bridges to handle those shifty, 6'2" point guards.
Another crazy good secondary lineup is a stunner. In this lineup, Josh and KAT take a seat for Deuce and Jericho Sims. That lineup, in 30 minutes, has a +47.4 net rating? A 110.9 offensive rating is pretty meh, but the defense? Combine Deuce, Bridges, Anunoby, and a traditional center, and you get a sub-70 defensive rating. As useless as Sims has looked offensively this season, the numbers aren't lying with how the team performs defensively with him on the court.
The Others (Bad)
There's a flip side, of course. Some lineups have been used at least a few times and have been caved in.
Jericho Sims may be a part of the best lineup, but he also might be in the worst. In the lineup where Anunoby and Towns are resting for Deuce and Sims, they're getting crushed to a -22.7 net rating. Anunoby has been arguably the Knicks' most valuable player on both ends this season, and there's no coincidence this lineup has a 132 defensive rating.
There's one other lineup that, after seeing it, you might understand Thibs' hesitancy to play Tyler Kolek.
The Deuce-Kolek-Hart-Bridges-Towns lineup has a dreadful -33.4 net rating in 15 minutes. There's just not enough defense here, and with Bridges struggling offensively, this is a mess. A 143.8 defensive rating? Yikes.
Too Small Sample, But Notable
Is there any positive non-Brunson lineup? The most used non-Brunson lineup is Payne and McBride in for Brunson and Anunoby. Although two crucial parts are subtracted, the lineup does have a good +9.3 net rating in 19 minutes.
The starters with Deuce instead of Brunson? Also pretty good. A 97.3 defensive rating tracks when you subtract a negative defender from a very good one.
The issue with the Knicks is that they can't have lineups without Brunson and KAT. Tom Thibodeau has done a great job in staggering them, with the most popular lineup without them being used just twice for nine minutes. That lineup, McBride-Payne-Bridges-Anunoby-Sims, was horrific. You might think they'd have no offense, but no, they're somehow getting caved in with an 181 defensive rating despite subbing in better defenders. Small sample size, but a net rating of -50 might not be.
Rotation Stragglers
Matt Ryan played nine minutes last night and left a lot to be desired. None of those lineups fared well in a small sample.
Tyler Kolek struggled in his brief cameo as a rotation player defensively, which is a big no-no for one Thomas Thibodeau.
Pacome Dadiet is an interesting one. It looked like he was the initial ninth man against Boston, entering that bloodbath, but that plan was quickly abandoned. He looked good in the preseason, and pretty much the only time Boston didn't destroy the Knicks was during his four minutes in the second quarter.
The biggest question I have now is: what does this all look like when Precious Achiuwa returns later this month? Does Sims go back into benchwarmer status? Will Thibs use Achiuwa as the rim protecting 5 to improve rebounding? What about when Mitchell Robinson returns?
Questions, questions, questions.
