Why the Dodgers must avoid trading for Sonny Gray
11/14/2024 06:31 PM
The Los Angeles Dodgers find themselves in an interesting position as they plan to strengthen their starting rotation for next season. After a mediocre season with the St. Louis Cardinals, veteran right-hander Sonny Gray has become a potential trade target for several teams.
However, while Gray brings experience and talent, the Dodgers should think twice before pursuing a trade for him. From age-related concerns and financial costs to the Dodgers’ internal pitching options and alternative free agents, there are several compelling reasons why the Dodgers would be wise to avoid this move.
The Reality of Age and Potential Decline
Gray is 35 years old and has logged over a decade in the majors. He had a bit of a down season in 2023 with a 3.84 ERA and 203 strikeouts, and the natural decline that comes with age is hard to ignore. Pitchers in their mid-30s often struggle to maintain peak performance, with decreased velocity and durability concerns becoming increasingly common, especially with the changes in the baseball. Gray's numbers aren’t all that impressive, and committing to a veteran at his age comes with the risk that his performance could drop off, especially as the wear and tear of another full season takes its toll.
Furthermore, Gray has shown some variability in his career. His career ERA of 3.51 is solid, yet his performance has fluctuated significantly. The Dodgers have succeeded by focusing on consistent, young talent and bringing in star, big-name free agents. Bringing in a pitcher like Gray could add an element of unpredictability that may not be worth the trade-off, especially when the team is looking for sustained performance to support their World Series goals.
Financial Implications and Long-Term Planning
Trading for Gray would involve inheriting a his contract, putting extra pressure on the Dodgers’ payroll. The Dodgers are no strangers to high-dollar investments, but they've managed to maintain flexibility by being strategic with their spending. Taking on Gray's contract could compromise that flexibility and prevent the Dodgers from addressing other needs, such as building bullpen depth or investing in their lineup (namely, Juan Soto).
Moreover, with potential high-value free agents like Max Fried and international sensation Roki Sasaki becoming available, the Dodgers might be better served by saving their resources to pursue these options. Fried, currently with the Atlanta Braves, is widely regarded as one of the top left-handed pitchers in the game and would likely have a longer, more productive window than Gray. Sasaki, the young Japanese phenom, has drawn attention for his blazing triple-digit fastball and potential to become an ace. Both options would provide the Dodgers with a top-tier talent who could serve as a franchise cornerstone, rather than a short-term fix.
Developing Young Arms: Bobby Miller, Gavin Stone, and Beyond
One of the Dodgers’ greatest strengths has been their ability to nurture and develop pitching talent. With promising young pitchers like Bobby Miller and Gavin Stone on the rise, the Dodgers already have potential solutions within their own organization. Miller, who debuted in 2023, displayed flashes of brilliance with his high-velocity fastball and strong strikeout potential. His 3.76 ERA and 1.102 WHIP across his first season hint at his potential to grow into a dominant starter if given the opportunity.
Similarly, Stone is another highly-regarded prospect with a chance to make an impact in the near future. Stone has shown flashes in his MLB appearances, showcasing control and a strong pitch mix that could transition well. In 2024, he had a3.53 ERA across 140.1 innings pitched with 116 K’s and an ERA+ at 109 (league average is 100). By investing time and development into Miller and Stone, the Dodgers can build a formidable rotation without sacrificing prospect depth or taking on additional salary. In fact, both Miller and Stone could become long-term fixtures in the rotation, aligning with the Dodgers’ philosophy of blending young talent with veteran leadership.
By holding on to their prospects, the Dodgers preserve their depth and set themselves up for sustained success. Trading prospects for a short-term solution like Gray could deplete their farm system and force them to scramble for future roster needs. The Dodgers have a rare opportunity to develop their young players, such as Miller and Stone, while maintaining their status as contenders.
Free Agency as a Better Alternative
The Dodgers have the option to address their starting pitching needs through free agency rather than the trade market. Max Fried represents a high-value target who would bring youth and skill to the rotation. At 30 years old, Fried is younger than Gray and has consistently demonstrated ace-level performance. Signing Fried as a free agent would allow the Dodgers to avoid trading prospects and offer stability at the top of the rotation.
Another intriguing option is Japanese sensation Roki Sasaki, who has taken the international baseball world by storm with his dominant performances in Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB). His combination of elite velocity and control makes him an exciting addition to any rotation, and his age aligns with the Dodgers’ vision of building a team that can compete for years to come. Pursuing Sasaki would bring in a high-upside arm without the need for a trade, keeping the Dodgers' farm system intact.
While Sonny Gray is an accomplished pitcher, the Dodgers should avoid trading for him given the financial commitment, age-related risks, and the impact on prospect capital. By focusing on young, in-house talent like Miller and Stone, and exploring high-upside free agents such as Fried and Sasaki, the Dodgers can build a sustainable rotation that balances veteran experience with youthful potential. Ultimately, passing on Gray allows the Dodgers to maintain flexibility, preserve their farm system, and ensure a competitive team for years to come.
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