Way-too-early Cody Bellinger predictions with Yankees

12/23/2024 08:08 PM

For a while, it seemed like it wouldn’t happen, but Cody Bellinger is now a member of the New York Yankees. The reigning American League champions acquired him and cash from the Chicago Cubs in exchange for pitcher Cody Poteet on December 17, giving the Yankees needed help to their lineup.

And while Bellinger is a former MVP, it’s hard to predict what to expect from him in 2025. After his MVP season with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2019, his performance cratered, reaching a nadir in 2021, when, in an injury-shortened season, he hit .165 with -1.7 bWAR. His 2022 season was better, but still below-average, and he signed with the Chicago Cubs in 2023 looking to salvage his career.

Bellinger did exactly that, hitting .307 with 26 home runs in 2023, before taking a small step back this past season. Despite his inconsistency, insiders think he is set up to succeed in New York.

"People believe Yankee Stadium is going to be a good fit for him," MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand said in the aftermath of the trade. "Left-handed guys with power certainly seem to thrive in that ballpark with the short right field porch. He's not going to have to come in and be an MVP in the middle of the lineup."

Without the pressure of needing to carry a lineup, but with a considerable advantage like that short Yankee Stadium porch, here are some way-too-early predictions for how Bellinger can perform in 2025.

Cody Bellinger will hit more home runs than any season since his 2019 MVP campaign

The number to beat is 26 — the home run total from his resurgent 2023 season. Bellinger hit 47 home runs in 2019 and it would be unreasonable to expect that out of him next year, even in a ballpark like Yankee Stadium. FanGraphs projects him to hit 23, so upper-20s is certainly within reach. And Bellinger himself believes he still has that sort of power left in the tank.

"I’ve done it, had a good amount of home runs my rookie year. I do think that it is in the tank," he said in an appearance on the YES Network. "You never know the future, I try not to set future numbers, I just want to go out and play the best baseball I can play — defense, running the bases, and just helping the team win."

For those wondering how well he can take advantage of the short porch in the Bronx, Bellinger hits about half of his home runs to the pull side and nearly the rest to centerfield. Yankee Stadium is 314 feet down the right field line, a reasonable distance, but hitters feast in the right-center area where the fence does not move as far back as it does in most other parks. It eventually hits 385 in right-center, but not before the area immediately in front of the bleachers swallows up more than its share of fly balls.

Bellinger will spend most of his time in centerfield

One of the benefits to the Yankees trading for Bellinger is that he gives the team some needed versatility. Aaron Judge spent most of the 2024 season in centerfield, but with Bellinger and top prospect Jasson Dominguez in tow, he can slide back over to right field.

Bellinger has only played 41 career games in left field, so while that’s technically on the table, Dominguez is far more likely to play there, at least for the time being. The Yankees probably do not want to keep Judge — their team captain, American League home run king and two-time MVP — in centerfield as he approaches his mid-thirties, leaving Bellinger as the most likely candidate.

The new Yankee could also play first base if something happens to recent signee Paul Goldschmidt. Goldschmidt is a former National League MVP and has played at least 150 games in every full season since 2015. That run has to end sometime, but his durability was a major draw for a Yankees team whose veterans have struggled to stay healthy in the recent past.

The Yankees’ outfielder will exercise his option and stay with New York after 2025

Bellinger came to the Yankees with two years remaining on his deal with the Cubs. He’ll earn $27.5 million in 2025, with the Yankees on the hook for $25 million of that. Bellinger also has a $25 million player option for 2026, his age 30 season, with a $5 million buyout.

He makes too much sense in New York for him to opt out of that deal. With it not terribly likely that Bellinger ascends all the way back to his MVP form and commands a much bigger contract, the odds of him exercising his option feel higher than not.

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