Virginia vs. Notre Dame predictions, pick, odds, spread for CFB Week 12 2024

11/12/2024 06:00 PM

Week 12 of college football continues with Notre Dame (8-1) looking to continue its quest for a College Football Playoffs appearance against Virginia (5-4, 3-3 in ACC). It is time to continue our college football odds series with a Virginia-Notre Dame prediction and pick.

Virginia-Notre Dame Last Game – Matchup History

Week 12 will only mark the fifth time Virginia and Notre Dame will face each other. Notre Dame won all four of the previous meetings, the last one in 2021, and is heavily favored to move to 5-0.

Entering the week ranked No. 9, Notre Dame has been one of the hottest teams in college football over the past two months. The Fighting Irish enter the game on a seven-game win streak that began the week after their infamous loss to Northern Illinois.

Virginia has not been as successful in 2024 but is still in the quest for a bowl game appearance. Having won just one game in their last five weeks, Virginia ended a three-game losing streak in Week 11 with a 24-19 upset of No. 24-ranked Pittsburgh.

Overall Series: Notre Dame leads 4-0

Here are the Virginia-Notre Dame College Football odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Football Odds: Virginia-Notre Dame Odds

Virginia: +22.5 (-105)

Moneyline: +1000

Notre Dame: -22.5 (-115)

Moneyline: -2100

Over: 50.5 (-110)

Under: 50.5 (-110)

How to Watch Virginia vs. Notre Dame

Time: 3:30 p.m. ET/12:30 p.m. PT

TV: NBC, Peacock

Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)

Why Virginia Could Cover The Spread/Win

The Hokies are coming off a big upset win over a ranked opponent. After opening the year 4-1, they are just 1-3 since but are an encouraging 6-2-1 against the spread.

Even when they have lost to superior teams, the Hokies have still been able to score. Virginia has only failed to reach 20 points twice in the year. In their only previous game against a top-10 opponent, they found late success against the Clemson defense to cover the spread in the fourth quarter. This offense predicates itself on big plays and they only need a few each game to cover a spread as wide as this one currently is.

While covering the spread is reasonable, it is hard to see Virginia doing enough defensively to win this game. This is the most complete team the Hokies will face on both sides of the ball. However, considering the spread is above three touchdowns, it could really come down to just three or four plays from Anthony Colandrea that get the job done. They have only lost one game this season by more than 22 points.

Why Notre Dame Could Cover The Spread/Win

Since their loss to Northern Illinois, Notre Dame has gone on a tear against inferior opponents. They have beaten unranked opponents by an average of 38.6 points since Week 3. To their credit, that loss seems to have been a true wake-up call for Marcus Freeman’s squad.

A spread as large as this one can be daunting, but the Irish have won four of their last seven games by over 23 points. After their dominant win over Florida State, Notre Dame’s defense is now fifth in the red zone, fourth in yards per pass allowed, and has the 10th most sacks in the country. They are aggressive in all facets of the game.

Pressuring Colandrea will be key for Notre Dame in Week 12. Virginia needs big plays to keep this one close and has typically found that success with long-developing calls. The Hokies’ best pass-protector, center Brian Stevens, is questionable for the game.

Final Virginia-Notre Dame Prediction & Pick

With three games left in the season, Notre Dame cannot afford to get caught with their pants down again like they did in Week 2. Currently in prime positions to end the year as a top seed in the College Football Playoffs, Notre Dame does not have many more chances to add signature wins to their resume. Instead, they have opted to beat the soul out of their given opposition.

While Virginia is coming off a win against Pittsburgh, they allowed over 40 points in their two previous games. They now get a Notre Dame offense that is the best they will have faced all year. Virginia has a habit of engaging in shootouts but against North Carolina, they showed that when they fall behind, the base of their offense can crumble.

Offensively, the Cavaliers are one of the most passing-heavy teams in the country and rely on big plays to keep themselves in these types of games. Notre Dame has allowed the third-fewest passing yards in Division I.

When they get ahead, the Irish have made a point of refusing to relent. With a big game against Army on deck, that won’t change here. Notre Dame will be too physical for Virginia on both sides of the ball.

Final Virginia-Notre Dame Prediction & Pick: Notre Dame -22.5 (-105)

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