Texans X-factor vs. Chiefs in 2025 NFL Playoffs, and it's not CJ Stroud
01/13/2025 01:13 PM
The Houston Texans have never been to the AFC Championship Game. Their franchise’s history started with brutal regular seasons and has been highlighted by abysmal Divisional Round losses lately. They were home underdogs against the Chargers in the Wild Card Round and dominated on defense. Now they hit the road to face the Kansas City Chiefs looking to slay some demons. Nico Collins is the key to victory, not CJ Stroud.
Stroud is certainly important, as the quarterback is in every game. He was solid against the Chargers with 22 completions for 282 yards, one touchdown, and an interception. His offensive line was brutal all season but stood up well in that game. They will be a big part of the game plan for the Texans against the Chiefs. But the biggest key is Collins, who dominated the Wild Card game and needs to do it again.
Collins is in his fourth year with the Texans and has solidified himself as a top receiver in the NFL over the past two seasons. With back-to-back 1000-yard seasons, even with injuries, he has lifted the offense, along with Stroud. His seminal moment came on Saturday when he went for 122 yards on seven catches and added a touchdown. Without him, they would never have beaten the Chargers.
The Chiefs won 15 games in the regular season but did not have the high-flying offense that they have been known for in the past. Their defense is what led them through the first portion of the season and will have to do so again on Saturday. That will be the biggest challenge for Collins, who has lived up to every challenge presented to him in two years.
Can Nico Collins lead the Texans to victory?
The attention is on Collins partly because he was one of the best receivers in the league this season. But the Texans have lost the next two receivers on their depth chart to season-ending injuries. Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs are not out there to take away coverage from Collins. That did not matter against the Chargers but could against a solid Chiefs secondary.
Everything that the Chiefs plan for on defense should be centered around Collins. Stroud is not a dynamic runner and there are very few secondary options for him to throw to. Trent McDuffie and Justin Reid will be leaned on heavily to cover Collins while the rest of the defense focuses on Joe Mixon.
Collins is the key to the offense but the Texans’ defense has been dominant in recent weeks. They picked off Justin Herbert four times and returned one for a touchdown. Patrick Mahomes is not prone to those mistakes so that is not a plan they can lean on. The Chiefs do not force a ton of turnovers on defense though, so that could still be a place they gain an advantage.
The Chiefs started their dynasty with Tyreek Hill and prime Travis Kelce catching the ball. But with Kelce nearing retirement and Xavier Worthy struggling to assimilate into the NFL, they do not have the weapons they once did. Collins will be the best receiver in this game and should make his presence known.
The Texans are 7.5-point underdogs on FanDuel and +350 on the money line. If the Texans win, it would not only be their first trip to the AFC Championship Game but the first time Patrick Mahomes failed to make it that far. Collins is +190 to score a touchdown and his yards total is 80.5.
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