Texans vs. Chiefs predictions, pick, odds, spread for AFC Divisional Playoffs 2025
Yesterday at 02:48 PM
The Texans looked great in their first playoff matchup, while the Chiefs have had so much time off due to them locking up the top seed in the conference. It is time to continue our NFL odds series with a Texans-Chiefs prediction and pick.
Texans-Chiefs Last Game – Matchup History
The Texans lost 27-19 in their last game against the Chiefs, which was in December, also in Kansas City. The Chiefs have won four straight games in this series. They are also 2-0 against the Texans in the playoffs, having won in 2016 and 2020.
Overall Series: Chiefs lead 10-5
Here are the Texans-Chiefs NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
AFC Wild Card Odds: Texans-Chiefs Odds
Houston Texans: +7.5 (-105)
Moneyline: +350
Kansas City Chiefs: -7.5 (-115)
Moneyline: -460
Over: 41.5 (-112)
Under: 41.5 (-108)
How to Watch Texans vs. Chiefs
Time: 4:30 pm ET/1:30 pm PT
TV: ESPN/ABC/ESPN+
*Watch NFL games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why The Texans Could Cover The Spread/Win
The Houston Texans have been solid on offense this year. They are averaging 319.7 yards per game. Then, they are scoring 21.9 points per game. The Texans exploded on offense in their wild-card game with 429 yards and 32 points. CJ Stroud has taken a step back this year, but he still is the key to how well this offense performs. He has 3,727 passing yards, 20 passing touchdowns, and 12 interceptions with a 63.2% completion percentage.
The receiving corps has been inconsistent, but Nico Collins is the best player out wide. He has 1,006 receiving yards and seven touchdowns on 68 receptions. The biggest key has been how well Joe Mixon has played in the backfield, leading with 1,016 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns on 245 carries. On paper, this offense has talent, and they finally exploded in the playoffs, but this is a different beast, and the Chiefs will have a huge advantage on defense. It will be huge in determining who wins this game.
The Texans’ defense has been great this season. They are allowing 315 total yards and 21.9 points per game. They are also coming off a dominant showing against the Chargers in their last game, where they forced four interceptions and 261 total yards. They have been great against both the passing and ground games this season.
They allow 201 yards through the air and 114 yards per game on the ground. This defense has dominant edge rushers in Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr., and then Henry To’0 To’o is a leader in the middle of the defense. Then, the secondary is led by Will Stingley Jr., Jalen Pitre, and Jimmie Ward. This defense can be dominant, and they need to be great against
Why The Chiefs Could Cover The Spread/Win
The Kansas City Chiefs have been inconsistent on offense this season. Still, their offense is talented, with Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce leading the way. They average 22.6 points per game and 327.6 yards per game in total offense. Mahomes has 3,928 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, with a 67.5% completion percentage. Travis Kelce is the leading receiver, with 823 yards and three touchdowns on 97 receptions.
On the ground, Kareem Hunt has been great in his return to the Chiefs, with 728 yards and seven touchdowns on 200 carries. However, this offense has not been impressive, and they will face a very difficult matchup against a Texans defense that is coming off a huge game against the Chargers.
The Chiefs and their defense have been a difference-maker this season. Up to this point, they have allowed 320.6 yards and 19.2 points per game. They have been great against both the pass and the rush, allowing 218.8 yards through the air and 101.8 yards on the ground.
They still have Chris Jones, a beast in the front seven, and George Karlaftis off the edge, too. Drue Tranquill and Nick Bolton are great in the middle. Trent McDuffie has also been solid in the secondary as a lockdown cornerback. This defense is why the Chiefs are in the position.
Final Texans-Chiefs Prediction & Pick
The Texans had a great showing in their first-round game against the Chargers. The offense looked good, but the defense shut down the Chargers and demonstrated what they can do on that side of the ball. This is a different beast altogether. The Chiefs figure things out and get just enough done to win games. They have the better quarterback in Patrick Mahomes, who has earned all sorts of trust in playoff matchups like this. The Chiefs also have a great defense that should have no issues shutting down the Texans in this game. The Chiefs should win and cover in this game at Arrowhead and advance to the AFC Championship.
Final Texans-Chiefs Prediction & Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -7.5 (-115)
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