Stars vs. Lightning prediction, odds, pick – 11/23/2024
11/23/2024 10:18 AM
The Dallas Stars will battle the Tampa Bay Lightning on Saturday in Florida. It will be a battle at Amalie Arena as we share our NHL odds series and make a Stars-Lightning prediction and pick.
The Stars are coming off a 5-2 win over the San Jose Sharks on Wednesday. They are now 12-6 and holding onto third place in the Central Division. Conversely, the Lightning fell 7-6 in an ugly loss to the Columbus Blue Jackets. The loss kept them in third place in the Atlantic Division.
The Stars and Lightning split the series last season. Ultimately, the Bolts are 6-4 in the past 10 games against the Stars and 3-2 over the past five games at Amalie Arena.
Here are the Stars-Lightning NHL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NHL Odds: Stars-Lightning Odds
Dallas Stars: -1.5 (+205)
Moneyline: -120
Tampa Bay Lightning: +1.5 (-260)
Moneyline: +100
Over: 6.5 (+108)
Under: 6.5 (-132)
How To Watch Stars vs Lightning
Time: 7 PM ET/4 PM PT
TV: ESPN+, Victory + and FDSS
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why the Stars Could Cover the Spread/Win
Last week, the Stars made franchise history by scoring seven goals in back-to-back games. These games helped the Stars rise in the standings and on the stat sheet.
Dallas currently ranks 12th in goals and 11th in assists. Additionally, they are 14th in shooting percentage. Delivering on the extra-man attack has been bad, as they are just 24th on the powerplay.
Matt Duchene has been good, with 10 goals and 11 assists, including two markers on the powerplay. Also, Mason Marchment has tallied six goals and 12 assists, including one conversion on the powerplay. Veteran Tyler Seguin has added seven goals and eight assists, including two tallies on the extra-man attack. Meanwhile, Logan Stankoven has been a great injection of youth as he has tallied four goals and 11 assists, including one marker on the powerplay. The Stars hope Jason Robertson can pick it up as he has just five goals and six assists.
The Stars have the best defense and goaltending in the NHL. Amazingly, they also continue to kill penalties, as they are fifth on the penalty kill. Jake Oettinger has been elite with a record of 10-3 with a 2.25 goals-against average and a save percentage of .917.
The Stars will cover the spread if their offense can get the legs moving, and they can skate all over the ice to set up scoring chances. Then, the defense must make plays and prevent the Lightning from getting opportunities.
Why the Lightning Could Cover the Spread/Win
The Lightning remain one of the best teams in the league even after undergoing some turnover. Ultimately, their offense remains stout, and their ability to score has remained consistent.
The Bolts rank seventh in goals and assists and third in shooting percentage. There have been some inconsistencies in the extra-man attack, as the Lightning are 12th on the powerplay.
Nikita Kucherov remains one of the best in the world and comes in with 11 goals and 18 assists, including one conversion on the powerplay. Also, Anthony Cirelli has tallied six goals and 13 assists, including one marker on the extra-man attack. Brandon Hagel has added nine goals and 10 assists. Likewise, defenseman Victor Hedman has scored four goals and 14 assists. Jake Gunetzel has also been stellar, with seven goals and 11 assists. Meanwhile, Brayden Point has delivered 11 goals and five assists.
Defense and goaltending remain solid. Overall, the Bolts are ninth in goals against but have struggled to kill penalties, ranking just 22nd on the penalty kill. The good times continued last week as Andrei Vasilevkiy made history with his 300th win. Significantly, he is 9-5-1 with a 2.13 goals-against average and a save percentage of .919.
The Lightning will cover the spread if Kucherov and the first line can get puck possession and control the game flow to take the air out of the Dallas attack. Then, the defense must force the Stars into making bad decisions.
Final Stars-Lightning Prediction & Pick
The Stars are 9-9 against the spread this season, while the Lightning are 7-11 against the odds. Moreover, the Stars are 2-6 against the spread on the road, while the Lightning are 4-4 against the odds at home. The Stars are 6-10-2 against the spread regarding the over/under, while the Bolts are 8-9-1. Likewise, the Stars are 3-4-1 against the spread on the road regarding the over/under, while the Lightning are 1-6-1 against the spread regarding the over/under at home.
Both teams have put themselves into a good position early in the season. However, the Stars have struggled with the Lightning in recent years, especially at Amalie Arena. I can see that happening again as the Lightning find a way to win at home and cover the spread.
Final Stars-Lightning Prediction & Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning: +1.5 (-260)
The post Stars vs. Lightning prediction, odds, pick – 11/23/2024 appeared first on ClutchPoints.
