Rei Tsuruya vs. Carlos Hernandez prediction, odds, pick for UFC 303

06/27/2024 01:39 PM

UFC 303: Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka continues on the prelims with a fight in the flyweight division between promotional newcomer Rei Tsuruya and Carlos Hernandez. Tsuruya is coming nine consecutive wins and the Road to UFC winner as he makes his anticipated debut at UFC 303 meanwhile, Hernandez is coming off a second-round defeat in his last fight as he looks to get back into the win column this weekend. With that said, check out our UFC odds series for our Tsuruya-Hernandez prediction and pick.

Rei Tsuruya (9-0) is an undefeated prospect from Japan who recently won this season of the Road to UFC securing his contract with the UFC. He has been a dominant finisher winning eight of his nine wins split evenly between submissions and knockouts. Tsuruya will look to remain undefeated with a successful UFC debut when he takes on Carlos Hernandez this weekend at UFC 303.

Carlos Hernandez (9-3) is now just 1-2 over his last three fights and his back is now against the wall after suffering a second-round TKO defeat to rising Japanese sensation Tatsuro Taira in his last fight. Hernandez will need to get back on track in the biggest way as he looks to derail the hype train of Rei Tsuruya this weekend.

Here are the UFC 303 Odds, courtesy of BetOnline. 

UFC 303 Odds: Rei Tsuruya-Carlos Hernandez Odds

Rei Tsuruya: -425

Carlos Hernandez: +325

Over 1.5 rounds: -175

Under 1.5 rounds: +145

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Why Rei Tsuruya Will Win

Rei Tsuruya is poised to defeat Carlos Hernandez at UFC 303 due to several key factors that favor the Japanese fighter. Firstly, Tsuruya boasts an undefeated record of 9-0, showcasing his ability to consistently perform at a high level in the octagon. In contrast, Hernandez has a record of 9-3, indicating some vulnerabilities that Tsuruya can exploit.

Tsuruya’s striking accuracy is a significant advantage. He lands 62% of his significant strikes compared to Hernandez’s 46%. This precision allows Tsuruya to inflict more damage while minimizing wasted energy. Additionally, Tsuruya’s defensive capabilities are superior; he absorbs only 1.44 significant strikes per minute, whereas Hernandez takes 4.54. This stark difference highlights Tsuruya’s ability to avoid damage and maintain control during exchanges.

Tsuruya’s grappling prowess is another critical factor. He averages 6.84 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 54% success rate, compared to Hernandez’s 15% takedown success rate. This ability to control the fight on the ground will likely neutralize Hernandez’s striking advantage, as Tsuruya can dictate the pace and positioning of the bout.

With how Hernandez has had troubles in his past against relentless grapplers like fellow Japanese fighter Tatsuro Taira, Tsuruya’s grappling will be on full display here and could be the deciding factor in him securing his first UFC victory.

Why Carlos Hernandez Will Win

Carlos Hernandez has a strong case for defeating Rei Tsuruya at UFC 303, despite being the underdog. Hernandez’s experience and striking volume are key factors that could tilt the fight in his favor. Hernandez has faced a variety of opponents, which has honed his skills and resilience in the octagon. His ability to land 4.95 significant strikes per minute, compared to Tsuruya’s 2.93, demonstrates his aggressive and high-output striking style.

Hernandez’s height and reach advantage also play a crucial role. Standing at 5’8″ with a 67-inch reach, he has a slight edge over the 5’6″ Tsuruya, which can help him maintain distance and control the pace of the fight. Additionally, Hernandez’s durability and cardio are notable strengths. He has shown the ability to endure and push through tough bouts, which could be pivotal in a high-stakes match like this

Hernandez’s wrestling and scrambling abilities should not be underestimated. While Tsuruya is known for his wrestling, Hernandez’s 65% takedown defense rate indicates his capability to thwart takedown attempts and keep the fight standing where he excels. His experience against high-level competition further prepares him to handle Tsuruya’s aggressive style.

Hernandez’s striking volume, physical advantages, and defensive wrestling make him a formidable opponent for Tsuruya. If he can leverage these strengths effectively, Hernandez has a solid chance of securing an upset victory at UFC 303.

Final Rei Tsuruya-Carlos Hernandez Prediction & Pick

This should be a great scrap between these two flyweight contenders. Ultimately, the wrestling and grappling is going to be a major advantage for Rei Tsuruya in this fight against Carlos Hernandez and it will be on full display as he will take him down rather easily and should end not too long after that sinking in his 5th submission victory of his career.

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Final Rei Tsuruya-Carlos Hernandez Prediction & Pick: Rei Tsuruya (-425), Under 1.5 Rounds (+145)

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