Purdue vs. Marshall prediction, odds, pick for College Basketball

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As they look to rebound from their first loss of the year, Purdue (4-1) returns home on Saturday to face Marshall (3-1) in the Mackey Arena. It’s time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Purdue-Marshall prediction and pick.

As the No. 6-ranked team in the country, Purdue’s loss to Marquette does not change their status as title contenders. Instead, the Boilermakers look to improve to 5-1 in West Lafayette, where they are undefeated on the year.

The traveling Thundering Herd will hit the road for the first time this season. They last faced Bellarmine on Nov. 16, beating the Knights by 19.

Here are the Purdue-Marshall College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel 

College Basketball Odds: Purdue-Marshall Odds

Purdue: -19.5 (-120)

Moneyline: -4500

Marshall: +19.5 (-102)

Moneyline: +1600

Over: 149.5 (-110)

Under: 149.5 (-110)

How to Watch Purdue vs. Marshall

Time: Noon ET/ 9:00 a.m. PT

TV: Big Ten Network

Stream: FuboTV (Free Trial)

Why Purdue Will Cover The Spread/Win

Through four non-conference games, Marshall is 3-1 on the year but just 2-1 against Division I teams. The two Division I teams they have beaten are both winless on the year. Offensively, the Herd can score, but they are struggling on defense, having allowed 90 points to Toledo in their lone loss. They are turning opponents over at a high rate but also coughing the ball up 11.5 times per game themselves, with many of them of an unforced nature.

Marshall’s defensive numbers look good, but opposition has to be factored into the equation. One number that sticks out is their 115 free throws allowed in just four games, which is the 11th-worst mark in the country. Led by junior forward Trey Kaufman-Renn, Purdue loves to pound the rock inside and slow the tempo down. Following that game plan, the Boilermakers could find themselves getting a lot of easy points at the line.

Why Marshall Will Cover The Spread/Win

Purdue is still adjusting to life without Zach Edey and Lance Jones; two of their three leading scorers from a year ago. In their struggles, they have become a defensive-minded, slow-paced team that is 291st in the country in possessions per game. When they play to their pace, they can beat teams like Alabama. But when they get sped up, they can turn the ball over 15 times like they did against Marquette.

It seems like a distant memory but it was not long ago that Purdue allowed 84 points and barely out-paced Yale. Had the Bulldogs not allowed the Boilermakers to connect on 48 percent of their threes, it might have been a different story. For as good as Purdue has looked at times, they are still just 2-3 ATS on the year. Marshall is the second-fastest-paced team Purdue will face this year and cannot allow the Boilermakers to dictate the pace if they wish to pull off the upset. In the two games they have struggled the most — Marquette and Yale — Purdue allowed both teams to take more than 10 field goals than they did.

Final Purdue-Marshall Prediction & Pick

Marshall would be smart to push the pace, considering how Purdue has struggled in that aspect thus far, but the Herd are shooting under 30 percent from deep on the year. That is extremely discouraging given their opposition to this point. In the current era of college basketball, it is difficult to pull off big upsets without a consistent three-point threat.

The way Purdue looked against Marquette is concerning for their title aspirations, but this is a great get-right spot for the time being. Even putting the Marquette game aside, Purdue has not looked great so far and has won just one game by more than 19 points this year. They will not be as good as they were in 2023-2024 but Marshall does not have the size or strength to match Purdue’s interior attack, nor do they have enough speed or shooting to threaten them in transition.

Final Purdue-Marshall Prediction & Pick: Purdue -19.5 (-120), Under 149.5 (-110)

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