Predicting The 12-Team College Football Playoff Field, Matchups

12/07/2024 11:56 PM

Well, it's finally upon us: The first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff Selection Show. In just a few hours we're going to find out which 12 teams will compete in the largest-ever college football national championship tournament. 

There are a few significant changes to the format beyond simply the expansion from four teams to 12. While the College Football Playoff rankings will determine a lot, conference championships will too. The top four seeds and first-round byes will go to the four highest-ranked conference champions, while the fifth-highest-ranked champion will receive an at-large bid.

Our five-highest ranked conference champions this year are No. 1 Oregon (Big Ten), No. 5 Georgia (SEC), No. 10 Boise State (Mountain West), No. 15 Arizona State (Big 12), and No. 17 Clemson (ACC).

With the outcomes now set, we're going to make our ranking, but split them into two lists: An overall ranking and a predicted seeding based in part on those rankings.

Here is our predicted overall ranking (bold indicates a conference champion):

1. Oregon
2. Georgia
3. Notre Dame
4. Texas
5. Penn State
6. Ohio State
7. Tennessee
8. Boise State
9. Indiana
10. Alabama
11. Arizona State
12. SMU
13. Clemson
14. Miami
15. Ole Miss

And here is our predicted seeding:

1. Oregon (highest-ranked conference champion)
2. Georgia (2nd-highest-ranked conference champion)
3. Boise State (3rd-highest-ranked conference champion)
4. Arizona State (4th-highest-ranked conference champion)
5. Notre Dame
6. Texas
7. Penn State
8. Ohio State
9. Tennessee
10. Indiana
11. Alabama
12. Clemson (5th-highest-seeded conference champion)

Sadly, this projection spells the end for many national title ambitions. Meanwhile, both Alabama and Clemson have the incredibly rare opportunity to become three-loss national champions if they run the table. Times truly have changed.

Based on these seedings, our predicted first round of the College Football Playoff is as follows:

• Ohio State vs. Tennessee at Ohio State - Winner plays Oregon
• Notre Dame vs. Clemson at Notre Dame - Winner plays Arizona State
• Penn State vs. Indiana at Penn State - Winner plays Georgia
• Texas vs. Alabama - Winner plays Boise State

The football gods have effectively given us two in-conference games that we didn't get this year, a familiar matchup between Notre Dame and Clemson, and a second-ever meeting between two longtime powers of college football: Ohio State and Tennessee.

The first round might very well wind up being a lot more compelling than the second round, but that's a problem for a later day.

Will the College Football Playoff Selection Committee prove our prediction correct?

Related: ESPN's Matt Barrie Predicts 12-Team 2024 College Football Playoff Field