PHR Mailbag: Offer Sheets, Flyers, Werenski, Rossi, Soderblom, Islanders, Standings
Yesterday at 03:59 PM
Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Zach Werenski's Norris candidacy, forecasting the next contract for Marco Rossi, and much more. If your question doesn't appear here, check back in last weekend's mailbag while we'll run one more next weekend as well.
Gmm8811: It's looking like the Broberg/Holloway offer sheets have worked out really well for the Blues. Do you foresee more GM's taking a harder look at that option in the future? Thoughts on next year's steals?
At this point, the Blues certainly have to be happy with how things turned out. Philip Broberg is a legitimate top-four defender for them and Dylan Holloway has blown past his career bests offensively and turned into a capable top-six winger. For what it's worth, Edmonton pivoted relatively well with their low-cost replacements of Ty Emberson and Vasily Podkolzin, given the circumstances. Those two aren't playing at the level Broberg and Holloway are now but they are playing to the level those two likely would have performed at had they stayed with the Oilers.
That type of success story should make general managers a bit more willing to look into offer sheets as an option although I do think more of them get floated around than we ever see. We only find out when one is signed, not when one is discussed between teams and agents. With another fair-sized jump expected in the salary cap, there's definitely going to be a chance for a strategic offer sheet or two this summer.
The challenge is finding a team that will be cap-strapped early in free agency. There will be plenty, sure, but identifying them now isn't as easy as there are many signings and trades to be made over the next six months. It's also finding a younger player who wants a shorter-term deal as with the divisor for offer sheet compensation only being a maximum of five (even on a contract longer than that) cranks up the draft pick cost too high to be worthwhile.
If Florida finds a way to re-sign or replace both Aaron Ekblad and Sam Bennett, they're going to have to look at low-cost deals to round out their roster. That could make someone like Mackie Samoskevich a bit vulnerable as the Panthers would probably prefer a cheap one-year contract while he could command a two-year or three-year deal from a team that sees him playing a bigger role and is willing to pay him accordingly. If Seattle re-signs or replaces Yanni Gourde and Brandon Tanev, that might push them into a lower-cost deal with Ryker Evans so I think teams would sniff around that but he seems less likely. If the Stars are active between retaining or replacing their veterans, they could be vulnerable if they force themselves to pursue shorter-term agreements with their RFAs. Wyatt Johnston probably isn't attainable but if there's a team that really believes in Mavrik Bourque, I could see him garnering offer sheet interest as well.
Emoney123: Is there a trade or potential 2025 free agent the Flyers can pair with Michkov?
From a UFA perspective, it depends on whether Philadelphia views Mikko Rantanen as a center, a position he has played off and on with Colorado. If Rantanen wants to go for top dollar (which likely takes him off the table to re-sign), the Flyers are one of the teams that would have enough cap space that they could plausibly afford him without needing to do much subtraction from their roster. I suppose Mitch Marner fits as well if Matvei Michkov switches to the left wing as a left-hand shot but is that too much raw playmaking on one line? That said, if the Flyers had a shot at adding a top talent like that, do it and figure the rest out later might be the best approach there.
On the trade front, Vancouver seems like the team to try to make a move with if they ultimately decide to move one of Elias Pettersson or J.T. Miller (who has full no-trade protection). Legitimate top centers don't come available too often and while both players have recent question marks, they also have a proven track record of recent production. The cost for either would be significant, both in terms of current and future assets and with the Flyers still being in the build-up stage, a swap like that might not be at the most optimal time. But again, with the scarcity of those types of players being traded, that shouldn't dissuade GM Daniel Briere from inquiring at least about what it would cost to get one of them.
bottlesup: It might be a bit early, but is it safe to throw Werenski's name into the Norris conversation?
I'd say it's very safe to have Werenski in that mix. He's among the league leaders among blueliners for points, plays in all situations (all-around ability is right in the criteria for the award), and leads the NHL in average ice time. When you're in the mix offensively with the likes of Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes, you're definitely doing something right. He has undoubtedly played a significant role in the Blue Jackets surprisingly finding themselves in the battle for a playoff spot at the midway mark of the season, an outcome few would have seen coming.
I expect that their playoff situation will ultimately dictate whether he wins the award. That, and staying healthy, of course. It's not unprecedented that a non-playoff blueliner wins it as Erik Karlsson did just two years ago. However, his numbers were so far and beyond the rest (he had 25 points more than any other defender) that they were enough of a difference-maker. Werenski isn't going to have that luxury. If the Blue Jackets come up short of a playoff spot, he'll probably land plenty of second and third-place votes but that won't be enough to win. But if they get in, he'll be the driving reason why which should sway lots of first-place votes his way and make the difference.
Zakis: What does a Marco Rossi extension look like?
Why are the Iowa Wild perpetually bad and has that had influence on prospects seemingly not reaching another level (thinking Hunt, Lambos, Jiricek)?
Back in the summer, I basically pegged Rossi's range as a bridge deal starting with a three or a long-term deal starting with a five if he had a season similar to 2023-24 this year. That clearly isn't happening since he's already nearly matched his point total from a year ago in half the games. That's certainly going to change the numbers. The bridge deal now will probably start with a four and a longer-term agreement that buys out UFA years coming closer to the $7MM range depending on how many years it buys out. (And if he produces at an even higher rate in the second half, those numbers will go up even more).
Despite the strong showing this season, I tend to lean toward the bridge deal for Rossi. There has been a lot of smoke about the Wild not being fully sold on Rossi (who's undersized for a center) and while the team has tried to quash that, I don't think they're going from being uncertain about him to handing him a long-term deal. I also expect Minnesota to take advantage of their cap space and try to make a splash or two in free agency (or on the trade front) that might push them to have to go that route anyway.
As for the farm team, I didn't realize the history was that bad. For those who don't follow Iowa, in their first 11 years of existence, they made the playoffs once and lost in the play-in round once. There has been considerable turnover in terms of their coaching along the way as well. Without watching them closely, I can't begin to assess what's happening beyond simple guesswork which doesn't do any good.
I don't think it's fair to put David Jiricek in that group considering he's barely been with them for a month but I would suggest that yes, a continuous losing environment doesn't help from a development perspective. Sometimes it's good to have more prospects meaning the youngsters are getting playing time but I believe there's value in being in a good spot, playing meaningful hockey, and seeing some playoff action. It's hard to objectively state that yes, that held some players back from getting to another level – it's not that simple, obviously – but I'd say it hasn't helped.
Unclemike1526: Not being able to watch the games this year, I'm just curious is Soderblom that much better or is it just a mirage? After being able to watch the last three games I'm not exactly missing watching them anyway. It would be nice to get an opinion. I'd dare say right now Soderblom is the best G on the Hawks since Laurent Brossoit can't play. As bad as Soderblom was last year it's hard to believe he is that much better.
It's a combination of a couple of things. Arvid Soderblom is still young (he's 25) and it was reasonable to think he'd bounce back, at least to a point after a tough 2023-24 season. Also, year-to-year volatility for goalies is pretty common, especially younger ones; if veterans can have big swings in performance, so can the unproven ones. I wouldn't necessarily say it's a mirage, it's just a young goalie who hopefully improved after a tough year and with less than 20 appearances, it's still too early to say much conclusively.
With Brossoit out and Petr Mrazek a veteran placeholder, you're absolutely right in that Soderblom is their best option right now. And with the Blackhawks going nowhere in the standings this year, they should be going to Soderblom more often right now so that they can better assess him. There's a reason why he was their goalie of the short-term future not long ago and a reason why they had to go add Brossoit in the summer since he played so poorly last year. Right now, they need to get a better sense of what they have and see if he's still part of the future plans.
