PHR Mailbag: Flyers, Canadiens, Knight, Blues, Summer Acquisitions, 4 Nations, Scouting
Yesterday at 08:58 PM
Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Philadelphia's sluggish start, the top offseason acquisitions, and much more. If your question doesn't appear here, check back in our last mailbag.
Emoney123: The Flyers rebuild has stalled… how does it begin again? Ersson, Fedotov, and Kolosov seem like a circus in goal; scoring and defense are horrible… will the 2025 draft offer hope since they hold their own, Colorado, and potentially Edmonton's [top-12 protected] first-round pick plus three second-round picks? Is Tortorella the right coach or Briere as GM? One playoff appearance in seven years, and that was six years ago.
I feel like the Flyers are a victim of misplaced expectations. Going into last season, pretty much everyone thought they'd be one of the bottom feeders in the East. But they proved to be more competitive early on and while they fell off the proverbial cliff down the stretch, they didn't miss the playoffs by much. That led to higher expectations for this season which was a mistake.
This is still a team that, on paper, isn't all that good. Yes, they added Matvei Michkov. But this team wasn't a rookie-season Michkov away from being a legitimate playoff threat.
So, has the rebuild really stalled? Or is it actually back where it was supposed to be last season where they were expected to bottom out?
Will the draft provide some hope? It should as their own selection should be relatively high and while the other two first-rounders are likely to be closer to the back, they still should get players who project to be NHL-quality pieces. Three second-rounders give them a chance to deepen the prospect pool or to try to trade up from those late firsts to get a few spots higher. The rebuild will be in better shape when the draft is completed.
I'll hold off on the Tortorella part of your question (it comes up in the next one) but as for Daniel Briere, this is his second full season on the job. Rebuilds take a lot longer than that to try to assess and as much as they didn't have much success before then, they weren't really in a full-scale rebuild either. Realistically, it's probably two years too early to really sit down and evaluate if they're going in the right direction or not. I think they're in the right direction though and while the goaltending isn't pretty right now, this is what they need to learn. Will one of the three find another gear and show he's part of the future plans? They need to find that out but the process of getting to that answer isn't always pretty.
Black Ace57: How do you think the season will go with Torts and Michkov? I don't think it's a bad thing at all to hold him accountable and bench him at times if he's making mistakes or not putting in effort. Saying that, sometimes Torts goes too far with the Couturier benching last year being a good example. Do you think Torts will manage Michkov well or do you think he will be fired before the season is over?
I'm a bit old-school by nature and still think there's a place for Tortorella-type coaches in the NHL. I actually think he's a good fit for Michkov in the youngsters' early career. Tortorella is generally viewed as firm but fair with his players; there isn't much favoritism. That means there shouldn't be any thought that when Tortorella sits Michkov down that he's going out of his way to pick on the youngster; he's doing what he'd do with just about anyone.
I've always thought of Tortorella as someone who really wants to focus on the fundamentals and good work habits. Isn't that exactly what Michkov needs? Learning to best weaponize his offensive skills will come over time but having someone really drill home the other stuff in the early stages of his career should only pay dividends down the road.
Going back to the Tortorella part of the last question, I think he's a good fit for this group (including Michkov) for now. But he generally doesn't have a long shelf life with his teams and he's probably not the coach who will lead them out of the rebuild. I think he lasts the rest of this season but an offseason change wouldn't shock me if they stay on this trajectory for the rest of the season.
Jaysen:Jake Evans is attracting a lot of interest right now. Personally, I don't want my beloved Habitants to trade him. Really like the player. I hope they re-sign him. 3 yrs/3.5aav would be the max in terms of yrs and AAV.
The Habs are also looking for a forward with edge. What would be your top three targets that would fit with our rebuild/progression?
Let's talk about Evans. He's off to a decent start to his season but he only has reached eight goals or more once and is on pace for 17 this year so this is probably an outlier of a start. Going to that high of a price tag for someone with a track record of very limited production might not be the wisest move, especially with Owen Beck and Oliver Kapanen waiting in the wings. I believe Montreal would like to keep him at the right price as an insurance policy and a capable defensive player but I'd be surprised if that number starts with a three.
On the other side of the coin, knowing that this is his first trip through unrestricted free agency, why would Evans limit himself to a three-year deal at this point? Chances are he can get longer than that on the open market so if Montreal does want to lock him up, it's probably going to take more years than three to get him.
As for the forward with edge, I've seen that report as well, coupled with the notion that it needs to be someone who fits their rebuild timeline. In essence, they're looking for a 23-year-old power forward (or someone around that age). Those are in short supply and I'm not sure there's a single one who realistically would be available. This feels like the type of thing a front office leaks to make it look like they're trying to add while knowing they're basically looking for a unicorn so I can't give you three suggestions there unfortunately; I can't even come up with one that might plausibly be had.
Having said that, I think they might be open to a Denis Gurianov type of pickup like they did a couple of years ago for someone that’s a bit older than their prospect pool. He was a younger player who had a bit of success in the past and they felt he could be a possible reclamation project. And if that player happens to play with a bit of bite, even better. We're still a bit early in the season to know which younger players will be in this situation. Frankly, my first inclinations of who could be in that spot in the coming weeks/months (Pontus Holmberg and Rasmus Kupari) don't play with much jam. If Buffalo decides to move on from Peyton Krebs though, he might be one they look at but generally speaking, players in this type of category are sell-low and I'm doubtful the Sabres are at that point with him yet.
Schwa: How is Spencer Knight viewed relative to other top young goalies at this point?
It wasn't that long ago that Knight was viewed as one of the top young goalies in the league. After a strong college career, he impressed in his first taste of action in the pros and was rightfully seen as Florida's goalie of the future. The three-year, $13.5MM contract he signed back in 2022 hasn't aged well, however, and that deal might be influencing his perception a little bit.
For those who haven't followed him, Knight missed a big chunk of the 2022-23 campaign after enrolling in the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program. Ken Campbell of The Hockey News interviewed him if you want to learn more about why he was in there. Then the following year, Florida opted to bring in Anthony Stolarz as the backup to Sergei Bobrovsky (a move that worked out quite well) to allow Knight to get a bigger workload in the minors. He had a 2.41 GAA with a .905 SV% in 41 games with AHL Charlotte last season, numbers that were decent but not at the level of a top prospect either.
This year, Knight has been around NHL average in his first six outings with a 2.85 GAA and a .897 SV%. Again, those numbers are decent (the average save percentage is hovering around .900 league-wide) but that's not great bang for their buck. Frankly, if he stays around that level, I wonder if Florida considers a buyout next summer, a move that would save them $3.75MM on the cap next season while adding $750K for 2026-27. I don't know if they'd do it but I think it'd be considered.
If I'm musing about a buyout, it's fair to say he isn't in the tier of other top young goalies anymore. But with only 63 career NHL appearances, he's not that far removed from prospect status either. I expect Knight will get a little better as the season goes on and while he won't get back to that top tier (where Yaroslav Askarov and Jesper Wallstedt are, for example), he'll show enough to stay in Florida's plans.
Gmm8811: I think the Blues have proved to be exactly what everyone thought they would be this year. How much further do they sink before Army starts showcasing youth and moving older vets for draft picks?
I don't expect they're going to sink much lower than they are, to be honest. They're 12th in the West which feels about where they should be and I agree, they've played up to a reasonable level of expectation so far.
But I don't expect a sell-off to come anytime soon. For starters, it's too early in the year. Teams with cap space don't want to blow it this early unless it's a highly impactful piece and St. Louis probably isn't moving any of those. The second is that the Blues don't exactly have a whole lot to offer up veteran-wise.
Their most prominent rental up front is Radek Faksa and Dallas gave him away for free four months ago; it's not as if he carries a lot of trade value. With retention, maybe they get a late-round pick but that's someone's Plan C or D at the trade deadline, not now. On the back end, Ryan Suter will be a solid trade chip but teams will want more of his games played bonuses to be reached before acquiring him which pushes him closer to a deadline move as well.
Among non-rentals, Brandon Saad has some value but at $4.5MM, that's a hard salary to fit on the books this early in the season. I could see him fetching a good return in late February/early March though when his remaining salary for this season is a lot lower. Jordan Binnington at $6MM through 2026-27 could be a trade candidate but he might be easier to move in the summer than now.
I just don't see a big sell-off from this team. They're going to want to keep most of their core guys and avoid a longer-scale rebuild which means most of what they have to offer are supporting pieces. In the meantime, if they want to open up a spot for a youngster, it might come through someone landing on waivers (much like Kasperi Kapanen) and the prospect coming up into that vacated position.
DevilShark: Sample size is getting reasonable now… I'm curious who you think have been the best acquisitions at each position this season (FA or trade) in terms of driving their teams' success.
Goalie: It's hard not to pick Jacob Markstrom here. Last season, injuries and bad goaltending were costly on a team that talent-wise should have been in the playoff mix. Markstrom has come in and given them that stable goaltending and they're first in the division. And yet, he's not my pick. Instead, it's Anthony Stolarz in Toronto. With Joseph Woll injured to start the year, Stolarz took the starting job and has run with it and is once again among the league leaders in GAA and SV%. If he wasn't up to the task, they could easily be on the outside looking in at the playoffs right now.
Defense: Considering the Kraken are a .500 team, it's hard to pick Brandon Montour here but I'm going to anyway. His addition raised some eyebrows as he was coming off a tough year by recent standards in Florida. But with Seattle, he is an all-situations impactful player which is exactly what they needed. With Vince Dunn on LTIR, he absorbed even more responsibility. I'd say his play is a big reason why they are where they are right now and not even lower in the standings.
Forward: This one's a bit harder as some of the top performers statistically with new teams (such as Sean Monahan) are on teams who have struggled so far while others (someone like Stefan Noesen) are doing well but are in supporting roles. So I'm going to use a different definition of success than you probably intended with this pick of Tyler Toffoli in San Jose. The Sharks wanted to be more competitive this season and they have been; they're far from the easy win they were a year ago. They brought him in to be a leader on a young group and help take some offensive pressure off of them. He checks both of those boxes and sits second on the team in scoring. For what their goals are for this season, Toffoli is doing exactly what San Jose wants from him.
