Notre Dame vs. North Carolina prediction, odds, pick for ACC Tournament

03/11/2025 09:35 PM

It is a second round ACC Tournament game as Notre Dame faces UNC. It’s time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Notre Dame-North Carolina prediction and pick.

Notre Dame was 15-17 in the regular season, and was 8-12 in conference play. This would get them the 12 seed in the conference tournament. That would give Notre Dame a game against Pitt. Notre Dame led by three at the end of the first half, but Pitt would make the comeback. The lead would be traded back and forth in the second half of the game. Notre Dame would be down two with under a minute left, when Nikita Konstantynovsyi made a shot to tie the game. After a Pitt turnover, Notre Dame would drive for the lead and be fouled. Tae Davis hit one of two free throws, and Notre Dame won the game 55-54.

Meanwhile, North Carolina is 20-12 on the year, and 13-7 in conference play. That gave them the fifth seed in the ACC Tournament. They opened the year 4-1 before three-straight losses. UNC would then win eight of their next ten games before losing four of five. Since then, North Carolina has won seven of their last nine games overall. Last time out, they faced Duke. North Carolina kept it close early, being down by just one at the end of the first half. Still, they would struggle in the second half, and would fall 82-69.

North Carolina won the only other meeting this year, winning a tight game early in the year 74-73. The winner of this game will face Wake Forest in the next round.

Here are the Notre Dame-North Carolina College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel 

ACC Tournament Odds: Notre Dame-North Carolina Odds

Notre Dame: +7.5 (-102)

Moneyline: +280

North Carolina: -7.5 (-120)

Moneyline: -360

Over: 149.5 (-110)

Under: 149.5 (-110)

How to Watch Notre Dame vs. North Carolina

Time: 2:30 PM ET/ 11:30 AM PT

TV: ESPN

*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*

Why Notre Dame Will Cover The Spread/Win

Notre Dame is 93rd in KenPom’s current rankings. They are 77th in adjusted offensive efficiency while sitting 139th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Notre Dame has been better on the offensive side of the court this year. They are 152nd in the nation in points per game while sitting 102nd in shooting efficiency. They have also shot well from three this year, sitting 66th in the nation in three point percentage this season.

Markus Burton leads the way for Notre Dame. He is scoring 22.2 points per game while adding 3.1 assists, the best averages on the team. Further, he adds 3.5 rebounds and 1.5 steals per game. He is joined in the backcourt by Brayden Shrewberry. Shrewsberry is scoring 14 points per game while adding three rebounds and 1.6 assists per game.

In the frontcourt, Tae Davis leads the way. He is scoring 15.4 points per game while adding 5.4 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game.

Why North Carolina Will Cover The Spread/Win

North Carolina is 37th in KenPom’s current rankings. They are 20th in adjusted offensive efficiency this year while sitting 71st in adjusted defensive efficiency. North Carolina has also been great on offense this year. They are 18th in the nation in points per game, while sitting 39th in shooting efficiency. North Carolina has taken care of the ball well this year, as they are 57th in the nation in assist-to-turnover ratio while sitting 89th in turnovers per game this year. North Carolina also shoots a lot. They are 58th in field goal attempts per game while sitting 14th in field goals made per game this year.

North Carolina is led by RJ Davis. He comes into the game with 17.3 points per game this year while adding 3.6 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 1.1 steals. Meanwhile, Seth Trimble leads the team in rebounds and steals per game. He comes into the game with 5.2 rebounds, while adding 1.4 steals. He is also scoring 11.9 points while adding 1.4 assists.

It is Elliot Cadeau who leads the team in assists this year. He comes in with six assists per game on the year, while adding 9.6 points and 2.8 assists per game. Finally, Ian Jackson has been solid this year. He is scoring 13.3 points per game while adding 2.9 rebounds per game this year.

Final Notre Dame-North Carolina Prediction & Pick

While both teams have been better on offense this year, the North Carolina offense is superior, sitting top 50 in most key metrics. Still, the North Carolina defense has also been better. They are 275th in the nation in opponent points per game, but are also 142nd in opponent shooting efficiency. Meanwhile, Notre Dame, while sitting 198th in the nation in opponent points per game, is also 325th in opponent assist-to-turnover ratio and 236th in opponent shooting efficiency. With the much better offense, and a marginally better defense, take North Caorlina in this one.

Final Notre Dame-North Carolina Prediction & Pick: North Caorlina -7.5 (-120) 

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