New Mexico vs New Mexico State prediction, odds, pick for College Football Week 5
09/27/2024 06:46 AM
It is time to continue our college football odds series with a New Mexico-New Mexico State prediction and pick. Find out how to watch New Mexico-New Mexico State.
This season, the New Mexico Lobos have been riding a roller-coaster under new coach Bronco Mendenhall. New Mexico blew a late lead against Montana State in its season opener back on August 24. Their defense crumbled against Arizona. They covered the spread against Auburn but still gave up 45 points. They weren’t able to hang in enough to cover the spread against Fresno State last week, losing 38-21 on a night when they were 11.5-point underdogs. New Mexico has shown flashes of talent and the capacity to be a good team, but the Lobos have been unable to sustain those good sequences. They crop up occasionally, but retention has been the problem for Mendenhall, a longtime veteran of the coaching ranks who has produced notable successes in previous stints at BYU and Virginia.
New Mexico State’s season might already have taken its decisive, telling turn. The Aggies won their opener against Southeast Missouri. Then they outplayed Liberty — one of the more prominent Group of Five programs in the country, a school which made the New Year’s Six and the Fiesta Bowl last season — but faltered late in a 30-24 loss. That defeat seemed to take the starch out of the team, which then got shut out by Fresno State and, last week, lost by 20 to Sam Houston. The Aggies get a chance to revive and reshape their season right here in a rivalry game against New Mexico. It feels like an “all chips in the middle of the table” game for New Mexico State. Either the Aggies reset their season with a rivalry win, or they fall to 1-4 with not a whole lot to play for the rest of the way. New Mexico State absolutely needs this win to have a realistic shot at bowl eligibility in 2024.
Both teams have gone through a lot of heartaches in the first month of play. Winning a rivalry game is desperately needed to salvage the season, and we’re not even in the month of October just yet. Only college football can have a game this early in the season mean this much to two different schools.
Here are the New Mexico-New Mexico State College Football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: New Mexico-New Mexico State Odds
New Mexico: -9.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -315
New Mexico State: +9.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +250
Over: 54.5 (-114)
Under: 54.5 (-106)
How to Watch New Mexico vs New Mexico State
Time: 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT
TV: ESPN Plus
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why New Mexico Could Cover The Spread/Win
The spread is large, but New Mexico has shown at times that it can be a really good team. UNM dominated Montana State for three quarters as a 13.5-point underdog and nearly won outright on the moneyline in its first game back in late August. New Mexico scored in bunches against the Arizona Wildcats and made that game interesting for awhile before the Lobos’ defense collapsed. New Mexico offers glimpses of being a decent team. If those short glimpses can become whole games, the Lobos might be able to become a noticeably better team and cover spreads, as in this game against an inferior NMSU side which has lost confidence the past few weeks, as we noted above.
Why New Mexico State Could Cover The Spread/Win
It’s a rivalry game, and in a rivalry game, the inferior team often plays above its weight and manages to at least keep the game close if not win outright. That is the clear rationale for picking the Aggies over the Lobos.
Final New Mexico-New Mexico State Prediction & Pick
In a rivalry game, pick the team getting the points. We’re riding with New Mexico State at home.
Final New Mexico-New Mexico State Prediction & Pick: New Mexico State +9.5
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