Mets vs Brewers prediction, odds, pick – 9/29/2024

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It’s time to continue our MLB odds series with a Mets-Brewers prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Mets Brewers.

There are not many important MLB games on the final Sunday of the season, but this is one of them. The New York Mets are going down to the wire with the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Atlanta Braves in a three-way battle for two National League wild card spots.

The Mets have lost three straight games. Yet, they are being saved. Why? The Diamondbacks, who were similarly hot for much of early September, have endured a shocking collapse. Arizona was 87-68 last Sunday. The D-Backs have since lost five of six to fall to 88-73. They might bail out the Mets.

Here’s the situation entering Sunday. The Braves are 88-71 with three games left. Their magic number is one. They would need to lose all three games to not make the postseason (and even then, they could still get in). The Mets are 87-72 with three left, one game behind the Braves. Arizona, at 88-73, is tied with the Mets in terms of games above .500 (15), but Arizona has just one game left while the Mets have three. Arizona is one game behind New York in the loss column. That matters.

The Mets’ dream scenario is that they don’t have to travel to Atlanta for a Monday doubleheader and can clinch a playoff berth on Sunday. How does that happen? Simple: They beat the Brewers and the Diamondbacks lose to the San Diego Padres. The Mets would clinch, as would the Braves, making it unnecessary to play a Monday doubleheader with Arizona eliminated. Any other scenario — Mets and D-Backs both win, Mets and D-Backs both lose, Mets lose and D-Backs win — requires the Mets to fly to Atlanta and play on Monday.

We could easily have a scenario in which the Braves clinch on Sunday. Yet, the Braves would still be forced to play the Mets on Monday because the Mets-versus-Arizona battle for the final wild card spot could still be unresolved. It will be unresolved unless the Mets win Sunday and the D-Backs lose.

Simply stated: This is not a must-win game for the Mets in terms of making the playoffs. However, it very much is a must-win for the Mets if they want to avoid flying to Atlanta to play two games on Monday before a potential National League Wild Card Series.

In other words, the Mets should treat this as a Game 7, even though they do not have to win to stay alive.

Mets-Brewers Projected Starters 

David Peterson vs. Colin Rea

David Peterson (9-3) has a 3.08 ERA. He gets the ball in a highly important game for the Mets. Can he deliver?

Last Start: Friday, September 20 versus the Philadelphia Phillies: 3 2/3 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 0 HR, 0 BB, 4 K

2024 Road Splits: 11 starts, 65 2/3 IP, 60 H, 22 R, 4 HR, 23 BB, 42 K

Colin Rea (12-5) has a 4.17 ERA. The Brewers are in the playoffs because of workhorse starters such as Rea. This is a final tune-up before the wild card series, in which Rea should get middle or long relief duty.

Last Start: Tuesday, September 24 versus the Pittsburgh Pirates: 1 1/3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 HR, 0 BB, 2 K

2024 Home Splits: 14 starts, 87 1/3 IP, 74 H, 40 R, 16 HR, 18 BB, 74 K

Here are the Mets-Brewers MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

MLB Odds: Mets-Brewers Odds

New York Mets: -1.5 (+142)

Moneyline: -120

Milwaukee Brewers: +1.5 (-172)

Moneyline: +102

Over: 8 (-110)

Under: 8 (-110)

How to Watch Mets vs. Brewers

Time: 3:10 p.m. ET/12:10 p.m. PT

TV: SNY (Mets) / Bally Sports Wisconsin (Brewers) / MLB Extra Innings

Stream: fuboTV (Free trial)

Why The Mets Will Cover The Spread/Win

The Mets have a lot of incentive to win. The Brewers have none. Milwaukee is locked into the third seed. The Brewers just need this game to end quickly and prepare for Game 1 of the wild card series.

Why The Brewers Will Cover The Spread/Win

The Brewers have won the first two games of this series despite not needing to win. They can make it three against the Mets, who are cracking under pressure.

Final Mets-Brewers Prediction & Pick

The Mets’ need to avoid a flight to Atlanta and two Monday games should help them wake up and win. Take New York.

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Final Mets-Brewers Prediction & Pick: Mets -1.5

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