Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens prediction, odds, pick – 1/18/2025
01/17/2025 08:00 PM
The Toronto Maple Leafs will battle the Montreal Canadiens on Saturday at the Bell Centre. It’s an Original 6 rivalry as we share our NHL odds series and make a Maple Leafs-Canadiens prediction and pick.
The Maple Leafs are 50-43 in the past 93 games against the Canadiens. Ultimately, the teams have split two games this season. First, the Habs opened the season with a 1-0 shutout win at home against the Leafs. The Maple Leafs bounced back and beat the Canadiens 4-1 on November 9.
Here are the Maple Leafs-Canadiens NHL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NHL Odds: Maple Leafs-Canadiens Odds
Toronto Maple Leafs: -1.5 (+172)
Moneyline: -150
Montreal Canadiens: +1.5 (-215)
Moneyline: +125
Over: 5.5 (-128)
Under: 5.5 (+104)
How To Watch Maple Leafs vs Canadiens
Time: 7 PM ET/4 PM PT
TV: NHL Network
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Why the Maple Leafs Could Cover the Spread/Win
The Maple Leafs suffered a big blow recently as John Tavares suffered a lower-body injury and will be out for a while. Now, coach Craig Berube has revealed a plan to move on without him and try and get the Leafs going even without their beloved captain.
When they beat the Habs two months ago, they did it by scoring early and often, jumping to a 3-0 lead halfway through the second period. Overall, they controlled the game and did not let up. William Nylander finished with a goal and an assist on seven shots, while Mitchell Marner had a goal and an assist. Tavares had a goal in that game and, as previously mentioned, will not play in this game. Curiously, the Leafs won that game without Auston Matthews, and he will play in this game. The Leafs also got some scoring from the bottom lines, as Conor Timmins tallied a goal.
The Maple Leafs finished with 27 shots on goal in that game. Additionally, they won 56 percent of the faceoffs. The Leafs finished 2 for 4 on the powerplay. This offense has been inconsistent this season and has not always converted on their chances. However, they still have enough weapons who can make a difference.
Joseph Woll made 20 saves in that game and allowed one goal. Ultimately, he played well behind a defense that also blocked 21 shots and leveled 24 hits. The Leafs went 1 for 2 on the penalty kill, showing that some issues could be exposed if they were not careful.
The Maple Leafs will cover the spread if their top players can find their opportunities and take shots at the net. Then, they need to defend the crease and not allow the Habs to have chances.
Why the Canadiens Could Cover the Spread/Win
Nick Suzuki just achieved a record against the Washington Capitals. Amazingly, he has been one of the better players for the Canadiens, as he leads the team with 13 goals and 32 assists through 44 contests. While he did not score in either game against the Leafs, he is still incredibly dangerous and can do some heavy damage if he breaks free.
When the Canadiens beat the Maple Leafs, they scored once on a first-period goal by Cole Caufield. It was enough to hold the line, as the Habs had good goaltending. Caufield and Patrick Laine will attempt to change that, as the Habs likely need more than one goal this time around to cover the spread. Amazingly, Caufield has delivered 13 points over his past 11 games and is on fire for the Canadiens, while Laine has two goals in three games since returning from an injury.
The Canadiens finished that win with 27 shots. However, they only won 33 percent of the draws and went 1 for 5 on the powerplay. There needs to be some improvement.
Sam Montembeault was the hero in the win over the Maple Leafs, stopping all 48 shots. He likely will get the start here seeing as he already has a shutout against the Leafs.
The Canadiens will cover the spread if they can win more faceoffs and set up more offensive chances. Then, they must defend the crease and not allow their goalie to take too many shots.
Final Maple Leafs-Canadiens Prediction & Pick
The Maple Leafs are 23-23 against the spread, while the Canadiens are 27-17 against the odds. Moreover, the Leafs are 9-10 against the spread on the road, while the Habs are 13-8 against the odds at home. The Maple Leafs are 20-23-3 against the over/under, while the Canadiens are 21-20-3 against the over/under.
The Maple Leafs always have issues playing the Canadiens on the road, and I expect that to continue as they go into Montreal. This will not be an easy game for them, and I expect the Habs to do everything they can to cover the spread at home.
Final Maple Leafs-Canadiens Prediction & Pick: Montreal Canadiens: +1.5 (-215)
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