Lightning vs. Maple Leafs prediction, odds, pick – 1/20/2025
Yesterday at 11:40 PM
The Tampa Bay Lightning will play the Toronto Maple Leafs on Monday. It will be an Atlantic Division showdown as we continue our NHL odds series and make a Lightning-Maple Leafs prediction and pick.
The Lightning are 32-31 over the past 63 games against the Maple Leafs, including 6-4 over the past 10 games. Recently, the Leafs beat the Bolts 5-3 in Tampa on November 30, 2024. The Maple Leafs also defeated the Lightning 5-2 at home earlier this season on October 21, 2024.
Here are the Lightning-Maple Leafs NHL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NHL Odds: Lightning-Maple Leafs Odds
Tanpa Bay Lightning: +1.5 (-265)
Moneyline: -105
Toronto Maple Leafs: -1.5 (+210)
Moneyline: -114
Over: 6.5 (+112)
Under: 6.5 (-138)
How To Watch Lightning vs Maple Leafs
Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30 PM PT
TV: NHL Network and FDSS
*Watch NHL games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why the Lightning Could Cover the Spread/Win
The Lightning recently scratched Brayden Point for missing a team meeting. Significantly, it was a bad decision as the Bolts fell 6-2 to the Boston Bruins. Since then, the Lightning have bounced back by winning their past two games.
There have been many inconsistent plays in Tampa this season. Still, the Lightning are in third place in the Atlantic Division but holding onto a slim lead over the final two wildcard spots, showcasing an urgent need to play better.
When the Lightning last met the Maple Leafs, they fell behind 4-0 in front of the faithful at Amalie Arena. Unfortunately, slow starts have doomed them in both games, as they have managed just one first-period goal. Bad defense and goaltending have doomed them over these two games despite having one of the best in the world.
Cam Atkinson and Jake Guentzel each scored a goal in their last game against the Lightning. However, the Bolts were missing Nikita Kucherov, and he will play in this game. The Lightning needs Kucherov, Point, and Brandon Hagel to produce consistently in this game. Ultimately, they fired a lot of pucks at the net in their last game against the Leafs, tallying 41 shots on goal. The Lightning also won 51 percent of the faceoffs and went 1 for 3 on the powerplay.
Yet, as previously mentioned, the defense and goaltending failed them. Andrei Vasilevskiy has struggled against the Leafs, allowing eight goals on 38 shots for an ugly save percentage of .789. That starkly contrasts his overall mark of 20-13-2 with a 2.35 goals-against average and a save percentage of .915. Additionally, the defense will look to do even more against the Leafs after killing off the only penalty, leveling 20 hits, and blocking just 12 shots in the last game.
The Lightning will cover the spread if the offense can get going and find a way to score early in this game. Then, the defense and goaltending must do better, and Vasilevskiy makes saves.
Why the Maple Leafs Could Cover the Spread/Win
Losing John Tavares to injury hurts the Maple Leafs. They have continued to play well, winning their past two games against the New Jersey Devils and Montreal Canadiens, respectively. Ultimately, the Maple Leafs hope to continue their string of success against the Lightning.
Chris Tanev produced some rare offense in the last battle with the Lightning, scoring a goal and an assist. Meanwhile, the usual suspects, Auston Matthews and Mitchell Marner, each dished out two helpers. Matthew Knies also contributed with a goal and an assist, while William Nylander had a goal. Overall, the Leafs combined for 29 shots on goal. The Maple Leafs also fired 29 shots at the net while winning 49 percent of the draws. Likewise, they went 1 for 3 on the powerplay.
Joseph Woll held off a furious comeback in his last battle with the Lightning, stopping 38 picks and allowing three goals. He played behind a defense that went 2 for 3 on the penalty kill. Additionally, the defense made 22 hits and blocked 15 shots in front of him.
The Maple Leafs will cover the spread if they can continue to get good offensive chances. Then, the defense must continue to block shots and Woll must become a wall.
Final Lightning-Maple Leafs Prediction & Pick
The Lightning are 24-20 against the spread, while the Maple Leafs are 24-23 against the odds. Moreover, the Bolts are 12-10 against the spread on the road, while the Leafs are 14-13 against the spread at home. The Lightning are 19-21-4 against the over/under, while the Maple Leafs are 21-23-3 against the over/under.
The Maple Leafs have dominated this season. However, as recent history proves, the Bolts have always managed to steal a game in Toronto. I can see it happening again as the Lightning go into Toronto and score more goals and play better defense.
Final Lightning-Maple Leafs Prediction & Pick: Tanpa Bay Lightning: +1.5 (-265)
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