Lightning vs. Ducks prediction, odds, pick – 1/5/2025
01/04/2025 10:21 PM
The Tampa Bay Lightning will conclude their California road trip as they face the Anaheim Ducks on Sunday. It will be a fun matchup at the Honda Center as we share our NHL odds series and make a Lightning-Ducks prediction and pick.
The Lightning leads the head-to-head series 16-5. Significantly, the Bolts swept the Ducks last season, winning 3-2 at Honda Center and 5-1 at Amalie Arena.
Here are the Lightning-Ducks NHL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NHL Odds: Lightning-Ducks Odds
Tampa Bay Lightning: -1.5 (+118)
Moneyline: -205
Anaheim Ducks: +1.5 (-144)
Moneyline: +168
Over: 6.5 (-134)
Under: 6.5 (+110)
How To Watch Lightning vs Ducks
Time: 8 PM ET/5 PM PT
TV: ESPN+, Victory +, KCOP, and FDSS
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Why the Lightning Could Cover the Spread/Win
The Lightning came into the weekend clinging to the top wildcard spot in the Eastern Conference, barely two points above the Pittsburgh Penguins. No, these are not the Stanley Cup contenders that we were accustomed to seeing a few seasons ago. Instead, it’s the relics of a team that is attempting to reload on the fly while also preventing themselves from falling down the rebuilding hole.
Nikita Kucherov is still around and came into the weekend with 17 goals and 37 assists, including two powerplay markers. Unfortunately, his California road trip started with a dud as he could not get on the scoresheet in a 2-1 loss to the San Jose Sharks. Brayden Point is their second-best scorer and came into the weekend with 23 goals and 20 assists. Yet, he also struggled against the Sharks, not getting anything into the back of the net.
Brandon Hagel was more successful, contributing with a helper on the only goal. His setup helped Anthony Cirelli find the back of the net to give the Bolts a chance. But the Lightning need more than one goal to win games. It was a rare bad game for an offense that ranks third in goals and sixth in assists.
The defense also continues to play well. Victor Hedman has now played the most games for the Lightning after passing the mark originally set by Steven Stamkos earlier this week. Ultimately, he will power a defense that has limited opportunities for opposing offenses. With Andrei Vasilevslkiy starting against the Los Angeles Kings on Saturday, Jonas Johansson likely gets the start in the net and comes in with a record of 4-2-1 with a 3.36 goals-against average and a save percentage of .900.
The Lightning will cover the spread if Kuchervov and Point can find a way to score. Then, the defense must limit any Anaheim chances and force turnovers.
Why the Ducks Could Cover the Spread/Win
Despite being one of their better players this season, Frank Vatrano is a popular trade deadline pick by many NHL fans and someone who can add a scoring touch to a contender. The Ducks are currently just 31st in offense but have improved in recent games. Significantly, the Ducks are 3-1 in their past four games and have averaged 3.5 goals per game in that stretch. Despite being bad on offense overall, the Ducks are 15-0-1 when they score three goals or more.
The Ducks have a good problem to have, as Lukas Dostal and John Gibson have been playing relatively well this season, as the team continues to barely hang around, but still waddle outside a playoff spot. Because of their current spot in the standings, the Gibson trade rumors continue to arise, and many believe the Ducks should trade him. If Gibson starts this game, he will get another chance to show his worth behind an improving defense that is currently 16th in goals against.
The Ducks will cover the spread if they can find a way to put three goals in the back of the net. Then, they must contain Kucherov and Point and avoid turning the puck over in their own zone.
Final Lightning-Ducks Prediction & Pick
The Lightning are 18-17 against the spread, while the Ducks are 26-12 against the odds. Moreover, the Bolts are 9-8 against the spread on the road, while the Ducks are 12-8 against the odds at home. The Lightning are 16-15-4 against the over/under, while the Ducks are 12-24-2 against the over/under. The Lightning 1-2 against the spread on the second of a back-to-back situation. Furthermore, the Ducks are 4-1 against the spread in the last five home games against the Lightning.
The Ducks are still clearly rebuilding but showing signs of life, as they currently are the best team in the NHL against the spread. Because of that, I expect them to find a way to hang around in this game, covering the spread at home.
Final Devils-Sabres Prediction & Pick: Anaheim Ducks: +1.5 (-144)
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