Julia Polastri vs. Cory McKenna prediction, odds, pick for UFC Vegas 98
10/10/2024 12:20 PM
UFC Vegas 98: Brandon Royval vs. Tatsuro Taira continues on the prelims with a fight in the strawweight division between Julia Polastri and Cory McKenna. Polastri is coming off a loss in her UFC debut as she looks to get her first win inside the Octagon this weekend meanwhile, McKenna is coming off a first-round submission defeat in her last fight as she looks to get back on track. With that said, check out our UFC odds series for our Polastri-McKenna prediction and pick.
Julia Polastri (12-4) is searching for her first win since in the UFC after dropping her debut fight against fellow prospect Josefine Knutsson. The Contender Series alumni was riding a four-fight winning streak heading into her debut bout with three consecutive finishes. Polastri will be looking to get back into the win column and finally get her first win inside the Octagon when she takes on Cory McKenna this weekend at UFC Vegas 98.
Cory McKenna (8-3) came into her last bout with back-to-back wins over Miranda Granger and Cheyenne Vlismas. However, her winning streak was snapped when she ultimately succumbed to a first-round armbar from Jacqueline Amorim in her most recent bout. McKenna will be looking to bounce back this weekend when she takes on Julia Polastri at the UFC Apex.
Here are the UFC Vegas 98 Odds, courtesy of ESPN Bet.
UFC Vegas 98 Odds: Julia Polastri-Cory McKenna Odds
Julia Polastri: -130
Cory McKenna: +110
Over 2.5 rounds: -425
Under 2.5 rounds: +280
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Why Julia Polastri Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Josefine Knutsson – DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 7 (4 KO/TKO/3 SUB)
Julia Polastri’s impressive striking statistics, including higher strikes landed per minute (5.45 vs. 3.00) and better striking accuracy (52% vs. 40%), give her a significant edge in the stand-up department. Additionally, her longer reach (63″ vs. 58″) will allow her to control the distance and pick apart McKenna from the outside. While McKenna has shown promise in her UFC career, Polastri’s more extensive professional record (12-4 vs. 8-3) suggests she has faced tougher competition and developed a more well-rounded skill set.
A vitória da brasileira Julia Polastri, até então campeã dos 52kg da LFA, sobre Patricia Alujas, campeã no MMA paraguaio, agora há pouco, no Dana White’s Contender Series, em Las Vegas. #DWCSpic.twitter.com/aDYwQwAQUj
— MMA Melotto (@MMAmelotto) September 13, 2023
Although McKenna boasts a higher takedown average, Polastri’s takedown defense has improved significantly over time. Her ability to keep the fight standing will be crucial in implementing her striking-heavy game plan. Polastri’s higher submission average (0.8 vs. 0.4) also indicates she poses a greater threat on the ground if the fight goes there. With the oddsmakers favoring Polastri (-135), it’s clear that her technical advantages and experience make her the likely victor in this exciting strawweight matchup.
Why Cory McKenna Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Jaqueline Amorim – SUB
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 4 (2 KO/TKO/2 SUB)
Cory McKenna’s higher takedown average (2.22 vs. 1.54) and significantly better takedown defense (71% vs. 42%) suggest she’ll control where the fight takes place. Her ability to dictate the pace and keep the fight on the ground will be crucial in neutralizing Polastri’s striking advantage. Additionally, McKenna’s lower strikes absorbed per minute (3.19 vs. 6.32) indicates a more effective defensive game, which will be key in avoiding Polastri’s offensive onslaught.
La première femme à avoir exécuté un rare étranglement 𝘝𝘰𝘯 𝘍𝘭𝘶𝘦 dans l’Octogone!
La galloise @CoryMcKenna99 tentera de nouveau de surprendre à l’#UFCVegas98.
SAMEDI | En direct sur @TVASports & @Sportsnetpic.twitter.com/0XragdkwTq
— UFC Québec (@UFCQuebec) October 7, 2024
While Polastri boasts impressive striking statistics, McKenna’s recent performances demonstrate her growth as a fighter. Her victories over Miranda Granger and Cheyanne Vlismas showcase her ability to implement effective game plans against diverse opponents. McKenna’s youth and potential for improvement, coupled with her proven UFC experience, give her an edge in this matchup. As she continues to evolve, McKenna’s well-rounded skill set and strategic approach make her the likely victor in this exciting strawweight bout.
Final Julia Polastri-Cory McKenna Prediction & Pick
In the upcoming strawweight bout at UFC Vegas 98, Cory McKenna is poised to bounce back from her recent setback and secure a victory over Julia Polastri. Despite Polastri’s slight edge in experience, McKenna’s well-rounded skill set and UFC-level competition give her a significant advantage. McKenna’s superior grappling will be crucial in keeping the fight where she wants it. Her ability to control the pace and mix up her striking with grappling attempts will likely frustrate Polastri.
While Polastri has shown promise, her UFC debut loss to Josefine Knutsson exposed some weaknesses that McKenna can exploit. McKenna’s experience against tougher competition and her ability to adapt mid-fight will be key factors. Despite being the underdog (+110), McKenna’s recent performances against higher-caliber opponents make her the smart pick. Look for McKenna to utilize her wrestling and ground control to secure a hard-fought decision victory, potentially capitalizing on Polastri’s defensive gaps to land significant strikes throughout the bout.
Final Julia Polastri-Cory McKenna Prediction & Pick: Cory McKenna (+110), Over 2.5 Rounds (-425)
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