Jasmine Paolini vs Madison Keys Wimbledon prediction, odds, pick — 7/7/2024
07/07/2024 12:51 AM
Jasmine Paolini takes on Madison Keys at Wimbledon. Our Wimbledon odds series has our Paolini Keys prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Paolini Keys.
The 2024 Wimbledon Championships move into the fourth round. There are lots of compelling matchups on the slate, and this is one of the better ones. It’s a battle between two top-15 seeds at the All-England Club. Jasmine Paolini is playing the best tennis of her life right now. She made the French Open final and, instead of losing steam, has come to grass — which demands a skill set substantially different from clay — and continued to stack wins together. Paolini doesn’t crush the ball but is a patient, disciplined player who constructs points well and figures out the geometry of the court. In this sense, she creates a sharp contrast with Keys, who is a power merchant and someone who wants to get on top of the point. If Keys suffers from any weakness, it’s that she goes for too much on her shots, sometimes too early in a point and sometimes with a level of regularity not appropriate for the match she is playing. When everything is going right for Keys and all her forceful groundstrokes are landing on or just inside the baseline, she is really tough to beat. The longstanding knock on Keys is that when she isn’t in full flow and her opponent is making her hit several extra balls to win points, can she stay in the rally, play percentage tennis, bide her time, and then wait for the right moment to unload one of her bigger groundstrokes? Paolini figures to put forth that kind of test, although on grass, a faster surface, Keys’ bigger game might get rewarded in ways it rarely is on red clay or a slow hardcourt.
Here are the Jasmine Paolini-Madison Keys Wimbledon odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Wimbledon Odds: Jasmine Paolini-Madison Keys Odds
Game spread
Paolini +3.5: +100
Keys -3.5: -130
Money line
Paolini: +205
Keys: -260
To win first set
Paolini: +168
Keys: -205
Total Games In Match
Over 21.5: -122
Under 21.5: -110
Paolini over 10.5 games: -122
Paolini under 10.5 games: -110
Keys over 12.5 games: -112
Keys under 12.5 games: -118
How To Watch Jasmine Paolini vs Madison Keys
TV: ESPN
Stream: ESPN Plus
Time: 8:05 a.m. ET / 5:05 a.m. PT
*Watch Jasmine Paolini vs Madison Keys LIVE on fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Jasmine Paolini Could Cover The Spread
Jasmine Paolini is playing well on grass, one month after playing well on red clay. What does that tell you? It means Paolini is making adjustments to her game. It means she is winning with different styles of play and is calling forth different resources to win matches. Lots of top pros who thrive on clay do not do well on grass, and vice-versa. Paolini, by showing she can play well on both surfaces, is establishing herself as a very tough out. Madison Keys is a hugely talented player, but she has never made the semifinals or better at Wimbledon, and it’s because her game gets rushed and her decisions often lack clarity. Paolini against the spread is a solid play.
Why Madison Keys Could Cover The Spread
Madison Keys is a player who is almost always in the conversation in at least one or two major tournaments every year when we get to the round of 16. She’s always a threat. That she has never broken through is a source of frustration, but she’s still a relevant player on tour, and that is a reality for a good reason: Madison is a formidable ballstriker, one of the best on tour. That can overwhelm Paolini and lead to a comfortable win against the spread.
Final Jasmine Paolini-Madison Keys Prediction & Pick
The best play here is over total games, simply because we think the match will be more complicated rather than less. However, it’s a really tough match to call overall, and so our official recommendation is to pass on this one and maybe wait for a live play.
Final Jasmine Paolini-Madison Keys Prediction & Pick: Match total over 21.5 games
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