Drake Maye bold predictions for 1st NFL start vs. Texans

10/09/2024 04:57 AM

With a New England Patriots Week 6 game scheduled against the Houston Texans, all eyes will be on rookie quarterback Drake Maye making his first NFL start. Ahead of the Patriots-Texans game, we’ll be making our Drake Maye Week 6 predictions.

The Patriots hit the reset button this past offseason after legendary head coach/general manager Bill Belichick’s retirement. Executive vice president of player personnel Eliot Wolf is now the de-facto general manager, and former inside linebackers coach Jerod Mayo was promoted to the head coach role. The pair’s legacy will be heavily tied to rookie quarterback Drake Maye, who they drafted third overall out of North Carolina this past spring.

After backing up Sam Howell as a redshirt freshman in 2021, Maye passed his way onto the NFL radar in ’22, tossing 4,321 yards with 38 touchdowns (both school records) and seven picks on a 66.2 completion percentage. He also added 698 yards and seven scores on the ground, leading the Tar Heels to ACC Championship Game and Holiday Bowl appearances. His breakout campaign earned him ACC Player of the Year, Offensive Player of the Year, Rookie of the Year, and first-team All-ACC honors.

Maye slightly regressed the following year, but still made second-team All-ACC and was high on draft boards. The 6-foot-4, 225-pounder was considered an exciting gunslinger that needed to improve his decision-making, via NFL Network’s Lance Zierlein.

“Challenging evaluation with top-flight measurables and tools but inconsistencies that create a lower floor. Maye's size and arm talent jump off the tape immediately,” Zierlein said. “He can make every throw, but he will try to make throws that he shouldn't have attempted. The gunslinger mentality creates a fearlessness that can turn into interceptions, but it will also allow him to win in tight windows and make splash throws that get crowds (and evaluators) on their feet.”

“The combination of traits and tape make him a boom/bust prospect who might need patient management and coaching to help shepherd him toward his potential.”

Just five weeks into the season, the Patriots now consider him ready to play in the NFL at just 22 years old. Will this decision blow up in their face? Let’s discuss it in our Drake Maye Week 6 predictions.

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Drake Maye will complete a 50-yard pass against Texans

Maye is still raw, but New England didn’t draft him to be a game manager. That was Jacoby Brissett’s role, who completed 58.5% of his passes for 696 yards with two touchdowns and one pick across the first five games. While the veteran kept the ball out of harm’s way, he didn’t create many big plays, which is partially why the Patriots rank 31st with 12.4 points per game.

Expect Maye to take more shots down the field, which will lead to more turnovers, but also more chunk plays. The North Carolina native doesn’t have much talent to work with, but establishing the run with Rhamondre Stevenson should help open up looks in the passing game. A deep completion to the speedy DeMario Douglas or Ja’Lynn Polk is more feasible with the rookie under center.

Drake Maye will throw two interceptions 

At some point, New England will probably be down against the superior Texans, which will lead Maye to press and force throws into tight coverage, especially towards the end of the game. Offenses are easier to defend against when the defense is expecting the pass, as it becomes a one-dimensional attack. A rookie making his first start isn’t ready to constantly be on the back foot.

Drake Maye will lead two Patriots touchdown drives

With that being said, Maye’s arm talent and energy will bring New England’s offense new life, leading to one passing and rushing touchdown. The Patriots only scored two touchdowns in a game once this season, which came in the 23-20 overtime loss to the Seattle Seahawks in Week 2. This would be an impressive showing for the rookie in his first start, as Houston ranks third in the NFL with just 5.9 pass yards allowed per attempt.

Texans will beat Patriots

Maye’s performance will be a mixed bag, leading to a two-possession loss to Houston. His final stat line will be in the neighborhood of a 55 completion percentage with 200 yards, one touchdown, two interceptions, and 20 rushing yards while leading the team to 17 points scored. This is far from perfect, but it’s a promising showing for an unseasoned rookie against a good pass defense.

Maye’s legacy won’t be defined by this game, but it’ll go down in Patriots history as the beginning of a fruitful era in which it finally found Tom Brady’s long-term successor.

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