Dortmund vs. Barcelona prediction, odds, pick for Champions League 2024
12/10/2024 10:58 AM
Two four-win teams face off as Borussia Dortmund faces FC Barcelona. It is time to continue our Champions League odds series with a Dortmund-Barcelona prediction and pick.
Dortmund comes into this fixture at 4-0-1 in UCL play so far. They opened up with back-to-back wins, including a clean sheet over Club Brugge and a 7-1 win over Celtic. They would then fall 5-2 to Real Madrid but have rebounded since. Dortmund has not allowed a goal in their last two games, winning over Strum Graz and Dinamo Zagreb. Meanwhile, Barcelona is also 4-0-1. They opened up UCL play with a loss to Monaco, 2-1. Since then, they have been dominant. They are coming off four straight UCL wins, including a 4-1 win over Bayern Munich.
These two teams faced off in the 2019 Champions League. The first game was a 0-0 draw, and Barcelona won the second game 3-1.
Here are the Dortmund-Barcelona Champions League odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Champions League Odds: Dortmund-Barcelona Odds
Dortmund: +230
Barcelona: -105
Draw: +300
Over 3.5 goals: +100
Under 3.5 goals: -122
How to Watch Dortmund vs. Barcelona
Time: 3:00 PM ET/ 12:00 PM PT
TV: Paramount+
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Why Dortmund Will Win
Dortmund has scored well this year, scoring 44 goals in 20 fixtures, good for 2.2 goals per game. Further, they have scored in 18 of 20 games this year. In UCL play, they have been scoring wonderfully. They have scored 16 goals, good for 3.2 goals per match. Further, they have scored in all five UCL games this year. Dortmund has also been getting off to fast starts, scoring eight goals in the first half in UCL play.
Serhou Guirassy has led the way for Dortmund this year. He has scored six goals with an assist on an expected 5.6 goals in Bundesliga play. Further, he has four goals and two assists so far in UCL play. That is on an expected 2.6 goals. Meanwhile, Jamie Gittens’ solid Bundesliga play has also transferred to the Champions League. In Bundesliga play, he has five goals and three assists on an expected goal total of just two. Gitten has scored four goals on an expected 1.2 goals in UCL play. Finally, Karim Adeyemi has also been solid in UCL play. Adeyemi has scored twice with three assists in Bundesliga play while scoring three times in UCL play.
Dortmund is giving up 1.35 goals per game this year overall. That is good for 1.35 goals against per game, but they have been better in UCL play. In UCL play, they have allowed just six goals, good for 1.2 per game. Five of those six were scored by Real Madrid. Gregor Kobel has been solid in goal for Dortmund. He has two clean sheets while allowing six goals on 18 shots on target this year.
Why Barcelona Will Win
Barcelona has scored 68 goals in 22 fixtures this year. That is good for 3.09 goals per game this year. Further, they have scored in 21 of 22 games this year. They have scored in all five Champions League games this year, scoring 18 goals in five games, good for 3.6 goals per game. After struggling with Monaco, They have scored 14 goals in their last four UCL games.
Robert Lewandowski has led the way for Barcelona. In La Liga play, he has scored 16 goals and has two assists this year. He has also been solid in UCL play. Lewandowski has seven goals on an expected 5.7 goals in UCL play. Meanwhile, Raphinha has also been solid in both La Liga play and UCL play this year. Raphinha has 11 goals and six assists in La Liga play. So far in UCL play, he has scored five times on an expected 2.2 goals, while also adding two assists. Finally, Lamine Yamal looks to continue to compliment Lewandowski and Raphinha as he has done in La Liga play. Yamal has five goals and nine assists in La Liga play but has scored just one goal with one assist in UCL play.
Barcelona has been solid on defense this year. They are allowing just 1.09 goals per game this year. They have also allowed just five goals in UCL play. Further, they have two clean sheets in UCL play. Inaki Pena has been the primary goaltender for Barcelona. He has won all four games but allowed three goals on six shots on target.
Final Dortmund-Barcelona Prediction & Pick
Both teams have been solid on defense this year, but for Barcelona, much of that is a lack of shots on target from the other team. They have allowed just 14 total shots on target in five games. In the game they allowed a heavy shot total, they allowed two goals. Dortmund will get shots on target in this one. If they can slow down Barcelona, they will get the win in this one.
Final Dortmund-Barcelona Prediction & Pick: Dortmund ML (+230)
The post Dortmund vs. Barcelona prediction, odds, pick for Champions League 2024 appeared first on ClutchPoints.
