Diamondbacks vs. Brewers prediction, odds, pick – 9/22/2024

Yesterday at 10:00 PM

The Arizona Diamondbacks will finish their three-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers on Sunday at American Family Field. We might see this match in the wildcard round as we share our MLB odds series and make a Diamondbacks-Brewers prediction and pick.

Diamondbacks-Brewers Projected Starters 

Jordan Montgomery vs. Frankie Montas 

Jordan Montgomery (8-7) with a 6.23 ERA

Last Start: Montgomery went 4 2/3 innings in his last outing, allowing three earned runs and six hits while striking out four and walking two in a loss to the Colorado Rockies.

2024 Road Splits: Montgomery is 4-3 with a 5.44 ERA over 10 starts away from home.

Frankie Montas (7-11) with a 4.50 ERA

Last Start: Montas went 5 2/3 innings in his last start, allowing three earned runs on six hits while striking out 10 and walking two in a loss to the Philadelphia Phillies.

2024 Home Splits: Montas has gone 1-7 with a 4.15 ERA over 12 starts at American Family Field.

Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

MLB Odds: Diamondbacks-Brewers Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks: -1.5 (+164)

Moneyline: +106

Milwaukee Brewers: +1.5 (-200)

Moneyline: -124

Over: 8.5 (-124)

Under: 8.5 (+102)

How to Watch Diamondbacks vs. Brewers 

Time: 2:11 PM ET/11:11 AM PT

TV: Bally Sports Wisconsin

Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)

Why The Diamondbacks Will Cover The Spread/Win

Ketel Marte recently returned after a stint on the injured list. It’s been a bonafide boost, especially on Friday when he went 3 for 4 with a home run, two RBIs, and one run. Batting second in the lineup is good for him as he hits behind Corbin Carroll, who has improved from his slump at the start of the season. Marte packs a punch and does well in front of Joc Pederson, who is still a solid hitter and has clobbered 22 home runs and 61 RBIs.

Christian Walker might leave the Diamondbacks this offseason, as he is an impending free agent. Regardless, he is an integral player in this playoff race and came into the day with 26 home runs, 82 RBIs, and 68 runs. Expect him to be a force at the plate, which is one of the reasons why Arizona might cover the run line. Of course, you cannot forget about Lourdes Gurriel Jr. He came into the day with 18 home runs, 71 RBIs, and 71 runs. These hitters are excellent and power the Diamondbacks through. Yet, they need good pitching to have a chance.

Montgomery has not gotten past the fifth inning in five consecutive starts. Yet, this start offers him a possible reprieve as he is 2-2 with a 2.93 ERA over five starts against the Brewers. When Montgomery exits, he will turn it over to a bullpen that is 24th in baseball. There is no established closer right now.

The Diamondbacks will cover the spread if their bats can batter the baseball and give them an early lead. Then, they need Montgomery to avoid making critical mistakes.

Why The Brewers Will Cover The Spread/Win

The Brewers have had an amazing season and clinched the NL Central. They came into the day trailing the Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies by four games for the top spot in the NL. So, while they have won their division, they likely will have to play a series or two on the road. Their offense can help their cause and help them get hot.

Rookie Jackson Chourio has had a productive season. Unsurprisingly, it continued on Friday, when he went 2 for 5 with a run and a stolen base. William Contreras leads the Brew Crew in hits. Amazingly, he went 4 for 5 with a two-run bomb. Willy Adames continues to be thrilling at the plate. Remarkably, he came into the day hitting 32 home runs, 109 RBIs, and 87 runs. This offense has done well all season and will look to continue producing. Yet, they need more pitching.

Montas has converted two quality starts in three outings. However, he has struggled against the Diamondbacks, going 1-2 with a 7.24 ERA over three starts in his career against them. When Montas exits, he will turn it over to the second-best bullpen in baseball. Devin Williams is the closer, and Trevor Megill is the setup man.

The Brewers will cover the spread if Chourio can get on base and Contreras can drive him in. Then, they need  Montas to hit his spots and fool these hitters.

Final Diamondbacks-Brewers Prediction & Pick

The Diamondbacks are 79-75 against the run line, while the Brewers are 80-74. Arizona is also 45-34 against the run line on the road, while the Brewers are 38-38 at home. The Diamondbacks showed once again how good they are at covering the odds, winning on Friday. But I don’t trust Montgomery. He is only in the rotation because of his contract Expect the Brewers to clobber him at the plate.

Final Diamondbacks-Brewers Prediction & Pick: Milwaukee Brewers: +1.5 (-200)

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